We give a proof of the conjecture of Nelson and Nguyen [FOCS 2013] on the optimal dimension and sparsity of oblivious subspace embeddings, up to sub-polylogarithmic factors: For any $n\geq d$ and $ε\geq d^{-O(1)}$, there is a random $\tilde O(d/ε^2)\times n$ matrix $Π$ with $\tilde O(\log(d)/ε)$ non-zeros per column such that for any $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, with high probability, $(1-ε)\|Ax\|\leq\|ΠAx\|\leq(1+ε)\|Ax\|$ for all $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, where $\tilde O(\cdot)$ hides only sub-polylogarithmic factors in $d$. Our result in particular implies a new fastest sub-current matrix multiplication time reduction of size $\tilde O(d/ε^2)$ for a broad class of $n\times d$ linear regression tasks. A key novelty in our analysis is a matrix concentration technique we call iterative decoupling, which we use to fine-tune the higher-order trace moment bounds attainable via existing random matrix universality tools [Brailovskaya and van Handel, GAFA 2024].

In the domain of network intrusion detection, robustness against contaminated and noisy data inputs remains a critical challenge. This study introduces a probabilistic version of the Temporal Graph Network Support Vector Data Description (TGN-SVDD) model, designed to enhance detection accuracy in the presence of input noise. By predicting parameters of a Gaussian distribution for each network event, our model is able to naturally address noisy adversarials and improve robustness compared to a baseline model. Our experiments on a modified CIC-IDS2017 data set with synthetic noise demonstrate significant improvements in detection performance compared to the baseline TGN-SVDD model, especially as noise levels increase. Our implementation is available online.

Feature selection and importance estimation in a model-agnostic setting is an ongoing challenge of significant interest. Wrapper methods are commonly used because they are typically model-agnostic, even though they are computationally intensive. In this paper, we focus on feature selection methods related to the Generalized Covariance Measure (GCM) and Leave-One-Covariate-Out (LOCO) estimation, and provide a comparison based on relative efficiency. In particular, we present a theoretical comparison under three model settings: linear models, non-linear additive models, and single index models that mimic a single-layer neural network. We complement this with extensive simulations and real data examples. Our theoretical results, along with empirical findings, demonstrate that GCM-related methods generally outperform LOCO under suitable regularity conditions. Furthermore, we quantify the asymptotic relative efficiency of these approaches. Our simulations and real data analysis include widely used machine learning methods such as neural networks and gradient boosting trees.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) with low-rank adaptaion (LoRA) is a cost-effective way to incorporate information from a specific dataset. However, it is often unclear how well the fine-tuned LLM will generalize, i.e., how well it will perform on unseen datasets. Methods have been proposed to improve generalization by optimizing with in-context prompts, or by using meta-learning to fine-tune LLMs. However, these methods are expensive in memory and computation, requiring either long-context prompts or saving copies of parameters and using second-order gradient updates. To address these challenges, we propose Amortized Bayesian Meta-Learning for LoRA (ABMLL). This method builds on amortized Bayesian meta-learning for smaller models, adapting this approach to LLMs while maintaining its computational efficiency. We reframe task-specific and global parameters in the context of LoRA and use a set of new hyperparameters to balance reconstruction accuracy and the fidelity of task-specific parameters to the global ones. ABMLL provides effective generalization and scales to large models such as Llama3-8B. Furthermore, as a result of using a Bayesian framework, ABMLL provides improved uncertainty quantification. We test ABMLL on Unified-QA and CrossFit datasets and find that it outperforms existing methods on these benchmarks in terms of both accuracy and expected calibration error.

Quantifying out-of-sample discrimination performance for time-to-event outcomes is a fundamental step for model evaluation and selection in the context of predictive modelling. The concordance index, or C-index, is a widely used metric for this purpose, particularly with the growing development of machine learning methods. Beyond differences between proposed C-index estimators (e.g. Harrell's, Uno's and Antolini's), we demonstrate the existence of a C-index multiverse among available R and python software, where seemingly equal implementations can yield different results. This can undermine reproducibility and complicate fair comparisons across models and studies. Key variation sources include tie handling and adjustment to censoring. Additionally, the absence of a standardised approach to summarise risk from survival distributions, result in another source of variation dependent on input types. We demonstrate the consequences of the C-index multiverse when quantifying predictive performance for several survival models (from Cox proportional hazards to recent deep learning approaches) on publicly available breast cancer data, and semi-synthetic examples. Our work emphasises the need for better reporting to improve transparency and reproducibility. This article aims to be a useful guideline, helping analysts when navigating the multiverse, providing unified documentation and highlighting potential pitfalls of existing software. All code is publicly available at: www.github.com/BBolosSierra/CindexMultiverse.

The problem of embedding a set of objects into a low-dimensional Euclidean space based on a matrix of pairwise dissimilarities is fundamental in data analysis, machine learning, and statistics. However, the assumptions of many standard analytical methods are violated when the input dissimilarities fail to satisfy metric or Euclidean axioms. We present the mathematical and statistical foundations of Topolow, a physics-inspired, gradient-free optimization framework for such embedding problems. Topolow is conceptually related to force-directed graph drawing algorithms but is fundamentally distinguished by its goal of quantitative metric reconstruction. It models objects as particles in a physical system, and its novel optimization scheme proceeds through sequential, stochastic pairwise interactions, which circumvents the need to compute a global gradient and provides robustness against convergence to local optima, especially for sparse data. Topolow maximizes the likelihood under a Laplace error model, robust to outliers and heterogeneous errors, and properly handles censored data. Crucially, Topolow does not require the input dissimilarities to be metric, making it a robust solution for embedding non-metric measurements into a valid Euclidean space, thereby enabling the use of standard analytical tools. We demonstrate the superior performance of Topolow compared to standard Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) methods in reconstructing the geometry of sparse and non-Euclidean data. This paper formalizes the algorithm, first introduced as Topolow in the context of antigenic mapping in (Arhami and Rohani, 2025) (open access), with emphasis on its metric embedding and mathematical properties for a broader audience. The general-purpose function Euclidify is available in the R package topolow.

This paper introduces advanced techniques of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) for unsupervised anomaly detection and customer segmentation in banking data. Using the Mapper algorithm and persistent homology, we develop unsupervised procedures that uncover meaningful patterns in customers' banking data by exploiting topological information. The framework we present in this paper yields actionable insights that combine the abstract mathematical subject of topology with real-life use cases that are useful in industry.

Credit card fraud detection (CCFD) is a critical application of Machine Learning (ML) in the financial sector, where accurately identifying fraudulent transactions is essential for mitigating financial losses. ML models have demonstrated their effectiveness in fraud detection task, in particular with the tabular dataset. While adversarial attacks have been extensively studied in computer vision and deep learning, their impacts on the ML models, particularly those trained on CCFD tabular datasets, remains largely unexplored. These latent vulnerabilities pose significant threats to the security and stability of the financial industry, especially in high-value transactions where losses could be substantial. To address this gap, in this paper, we present a holistic framework that investigate the robustness of CCFD ML model against adversarial perturbations under different circumstances. Specifically, the gradient-based attack methods are incorporated into the tabular credit card transaction data in both black- and white-box adversarial attacks settings. Our findings confirm that tabular data is also susceptible to subtle perturbations, highlighting the need for heightened awareness among financial technology practitioners regarding ML model security and trustworthiness. Furthermore, the experiments by transferring adversarial samples from gradient-based attack method to non-gradient-based models also verify our findings. Our results demonstrate that such attacks remain effective, emphasizing the necessity of developing robust defenses for CCFD algorithms.

Temporal graph learning is crucial for dynamic networks where nodes and edges evolve over time and new nodes continuously join the system. Inductive representation learning in such settings faces two major challenges: effectively representing unseen nodes and mitigating noisy or redundant graph information. We propose GTGIB, a versatile framework that integrates Graph Structure Learning (GSL) with Temporal Graph Information Bottleneck (TGIB). We design a novel two-step GSL-based structural enhancer to enrich and optimize node neighborhoods and demonstrate its effectiveness and efficiency through theoretical proofs and experiments. The TGIB refines the optimized graph by extending the information bottleneck principle to temporal graphs, regularizing both edges and features based on our derived tractable TGIB objective function via variational approximation, enabling stable and efficient optimization. GTGIB-based models are evaluated to predict links on four real-world datasets; they outperform existing methods in all datasets under the inductive setting, with significant and consistent improvement in the transductive setting.