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 Statistical Learning


Interestingness First Classifiers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most machine learning models are designed to maximize predictive accuracy. In this work, we explore a different goal: building classifiers that are interesting. An ``interesting classifier'' is one that uses unusual or unexpected features, even if its accuracy is lower than the best possible model. For example, predicting room congestion from CO2 levels achieves near-perfect accuracy but is unsurprising. In contrast, predicting room congestion from humidity is less accurate yet more nuanced and intriguing. We introduce EUREKA, a simple framework that selects features according to their perceived interestingness. Our method leverages large language models to rank features by their interestingness and then builds interpretable classifiers using only the selected interesting features. Across several benchmark datasets, EUREKA consistently identifies features that are non-obvious yet still predictive. For example, in the Occupancy Detection dataset, our method favors humidity over CO2 levels and light intensity, producing classifiers that achieve meaningful accuracy while offering insights. In the Twin Papers dataset, our method discovers the rule that papers with a colon in the title are more likely to be cited in the future. We argue that such models can support new ways of knowledge discovery and communication, especially in settings where moderate accuracy is sufficient but novelty and interpretability are valued.


Track Component Failure Detection Using Data Analytics over existing STDS Track Circuit data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A track circuit is an electrical system that detects the presence of a train on the tracks by passing a current through the rails, which acts as a conductor. In its initial form, track circuits consisted of a battery and a relay with adjustable resistors to set the transmitted signal gain and receiver operating point. Sections of track are electrically isolated by insulated joints in each rail. The transmitted signal travels through a single rail, through the relay at the opposite end, then returning to the transmitter through the other rail. Track circuits follow the closed loop principle, which means that any failure results in the safest state (track occupied) as shown in Figure 1. Because of this, track circuits also provide detection of broken rails.Figure 1: Track circuit behaviour schema Nowadays, there are many types of track circuits. The last state of the art ones provide enhanced performance, integrating sophisticated signalling systems to improve operation and safety. Track-circuit failures have an important impact as they imply a stop of operations and an economic impact for both the railway operator and its customers (1).


Neural Conditional Simulation for Complex Spatial Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification. However, exact conditional simulation from this predictive distribution is intractable or inefficient for many spatial process models. In this paper, we propose neural conditional simulation (NCS), a general method for spatial conditional simulation that is based on neural diffusion models. Specifically, using spatial masks, we implement a conditional score-based diffusion model that evolves Gaussian noise into samples from a predictive distribution when given a partially observed spatial field and spatial process parameters as inputs. The diffusion model relies on a neural network that only requires unconditional samples from the spatial process for training. Once trained, the diffusion model is amortized with respect to the observations in the partially observed field, the number and locations of those observations, and the spatial process parameters, and can therefore be used to conditionally simulate from a broad class of predictive distributions without retraining the neural network. We assess the NCS-generated simulations against simulations from the true conditional distribution of a Gaussian process model, and against Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations from a Brown--Resnick process model for spatial extremes. In the latter case, we show that it is more efficient and accurate to conditionally simulate using NCS than classical MCMC techniques implemented in standard software. We conclude that NCS enables efficient and accurate conditional simulation from spatial predictive distributions that are challenging to sample from using traditional methods.


CP4SBI: Local Conformal Calibration of Credible Sets in Simulation-Based Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, posterior approximations obtained with SBI are often miscalibrated, causing credible regions to undercover true parameters. We develop $\texttt{CP4SBI}$, a model-agnostic conformal calibration framework that constructs credible sets with local Bayesian coverage. Our two proposed variants, namely local calibration via regression trees and CDF-based calibration, enable finite-sample local coverage guarantees for any scoring function, including HPD, symmetric, and quantile-based regions. Experiments on widely used SBI benchmarks demonstrate that our approach improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators using both normalizing flows and score-diffusion modeling.


Simple Stepsize for Quasi-Newton Methods with Global Convergence Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quasi-Newton methods are widely used for solving convex optimization problems due to their ease of implementation, practical efficiency, and strong local convergence guarantees. However, their global convergence is typically established only under specific line search strategies and the assumption of strong convexity. In this work, we extend the theoretical understanding of Quasi-Newton methods by introducing a simple stepsize schedule that guarantees a global convergence rate of ${O}(1/k)$ for the convex functions. Furthermore, we show that when the inexactness of the Hessian approximation is controlled within a prescribed relative accuracy, the method attains an accelerated convergence rate of ${O}(1/k^2)$ -- matching the best-known rates of both Nesterov's accelerated gradient method and cubically regularized Newton methods. We validate our theoretical findings through empirical comparisons, demonstrating clear improvements over standard Quasi-Newton baselines. To further enhance robustness, we develop an adaptive variant that adjusts to the function's curvature while retaining the global convergence guarantees of the non-adaptive algorithm.


Skill-based Explanations for Serendipitous Course Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Academic choice is crucial in U.S. undergraduate education, allowing students significant freedom in course selection. However, navigating the complex academic environment is challenging due to limited information, guidance, and an overwhelming number of choices, compounded by time restrictions and the high demand for popular courses. Although career counselors exist, their numbers are insufficient, and course recommendation systems, though personalized, often lack insight into student perceptions and explanations to assess course relevance. In this paper, a deep learning-based concept extraction model is developed to efficiently extract relevant concepts from course descriptions to improve the recommendation process. Using this model, the study examines the effects of skill-based explanations within a serendipitous recommendation framework, tested through the AskOski system at the University of California, Berkeley. The findings indicate that these explanations not only increase user interest, particularly in courses with high unexpectedness, but also bolster decision-making confidence. This underscores the importance of integrating skill-related data and explanations into educational recommendation systems.


Is data-efficient learning feasible with quantum models?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The importance of analyzing nontrivial datasets when testing quantum machine learning (QML) models is becoming increasingly prominent in literature, yet a cohesive framework for understanding dataset characteristics remains elusive. In this work, we concentrate on the size of the dataset as an indicator of its complexity and explores the potential for QML models to demonstrate superior data-efficiency compared to classical models, particularly through the lens of quantum kernel methods (QKMs). We provide a method for generating semi-artificial fully classical datasets, on which we show one of the first evidence of the existence of classical datasets where QKMs require less data during training. Additionally, our study introduces a new analytical tool to the QML domain, derived for classical kernel methods, which can be aimed at investigating the classical-quantum gap. Our empirical results reveal that QKMs can achieve low error rates with less training data compared to classical counterparts. Furthermore, our method allows for the generation of datasets with varying properties, facilitating further investigation into the characteristics of real-world datasets that may be particularly advantageous for QKMs. We also show that the predicted performance from the analytical tool we propose - a generalization metric from classical domain - show great alignment empirical evidence, which fills the gap previously existing in the field. We pave a way to a comprehensive exploration of dataset complexities, providing insights into how these complexities influence QML performance relative to traditional methods. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the generalization benefits of QKM models and potentially a broader family of QML models, setting the stage for future advancements in the field.


A Large-Scale Benchmark of Cross-Modal Learning for Histology and Gene Expression in Spatial Transcriptomics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatial transcriptomics enables simultaneous measurement of gene expression and tissue morphology, offering unprecedented insights into cellular organization and disease mechanisms. However, the field lacks comprehensive benchmarks for evaluating multimodal learning methods that leverage both histology images and gene expression data. Here, we present HESCAPE, a large-scale benchmark for cross-modal contrastive pretraining in spatial transcriptomics, built on a curated pan-organ dataset spanning 6 different gene panels and 54 donors. We systematically evaluated state-of-the-art image and gene expression encoders across multiple pretraining strategies and assessed their effectiveness on two downstream tasks: gene mutation classification and gene expression prediction. Our benchmark demonstrates that gene expression encoders are the primary determinant of strong representational alignment, and that gene models pretrained on spatial transcriptomics data outperform both those trained without spatial data and simple baseline approaches. However, downstream task evaluation reveals a striking contradiction: while contrastive pretraining consistently improves gene mutation classification performance, it degrades direct gene expression prediction compared to baseline encoders trained without cross-modal objectives. We identify batch effects as a key factor that interferes with effective cross-modal alignment. Our findings highlight the critical need for batch-robust multimodal learning approaches in spatial transcriptomics. To accelerate progress in this direction, we release HESCAPE, providing standardized datasets, evaluation protocols, and benchmarking tools for the community


Comparing Cluster-Based Cross-Validation Strategies for Machine Learning Model Evaluation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cross-validation plays a fundamental role in Machine Learning, enabling robust evaluation of model performance and preventing overestimation on training and validation data. However, one of its drawbacks is the potential to create data subsets (folds) that do not adequately represent the diversity of the original dataset, which can lead to biased performance estimates. The objective of this work is to deepen the investigation of cluster-based cross-validation strategies by analyzing the performance of different clustering algorithms through experimental comparison. Additionally, a new cross-validation technique that combines Mini Batch K-Means with class stratification is proposed. Experiments were conducted on 20 datasets (both balanced and imbalanced) using four supervised learning algorithms, comparing cross-validation strategies in terms of bias, variance, and computational cost. The technique that uses Mini Batch K-Means with class stratification outperformed others in terms of bias and variance on balanced datasets, though it did not significantly reduce computational cost. On imbalanced datasets, traditional stratified cross-validation consistently performed better, showing lower bias, variance, and computational cost, making it a safe choice for performance evaluation in scenarios with class imbalance. In the comparison of different clustering algorithms, no single algorithm consistently stood out as superior. Overall, this work contributes to improving predictive model evaluation strategies by providing a deeper understanding of the potential of cluster-based data splitting techniques and reaffirming the effectiveness of well-established strategies like stratified cross-validation. Moreover, it highlights perspectives for increasing the robustness and reliability of model evaluations, especially in datasets with clustering characteristics.


Forecasting Multivariate Urban Data via Decomposition and Spatio-Temporal Graph Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Long-term forecasting of multivariate urban data poses a significant challenge due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in such datasets. This paper presents DST, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that integrates graph attention and temporal convolution within a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to effectively capture spatial and temporal dependencies, respectively. To enhance model performance, we apply a decomposition-based preprocessing step that isolates trend, seasonal, and residual components of the time series, enabling the learning of distinct graph structures for different time-series components. Extensive experiments on real-world urban datasets, including electricity demand, weather metrics, carbon intensity, and air pollution, demonstrate the effectiveness of DST across a range of forecast horizons, from several days to one month. Specifically, our approach achieves an average improvement of 2.89% to 9.10% in long-term forecasting accuracy over state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models.