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 Statistical Learning


Data distribution impacts the performance and generalisability of contrastive learning-based foundation models of electrocardiograms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Department of Cardiology, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom Disclosures: JWW and DBK were previously on the advisory board for Heartcor solutions LLC, forwhom they remain independent consultants. JWW reports research funding fromAnumana and is a consultant for HeartBeam Inc. FSN reports speaker fees from GEhealthcare and is on the advisory board for Astra Zeneca. The remaining authorshave no conflicts to declare. Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College LondonHammersmith Campus Du Cane RoadLondon W12 0NN Abstract Contrastive learning is a widely adopted self-supervised pretraining strategy, yet itsdependence on cohort composition remains underexplored. We systematically assess how cohort demographics,health status, and population diversity influence the downstream performance forprediction tasks also including two additional cohorts from another continent (Europe).We find that downstream performance depends on the distributional properties of thepretraining cohort, including demographics and health status. Moreover, whilepretraining with a multi-centre, demographically diverse cohort improves in-distributionaccuracy, it reduces out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation of our contrastiveapproach by encoding cohort-specific artifacts.


Hadamard-Riemannian Optimization for Margin-Variance Ensemble

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensemble learning has been widely recognized as a pivotal technique for boosting predictive performance by combining multiple base models. Nevertheless, conventional margin-based ensemble methods predominantly focus on maximizing the expected margin while neglecting the critical role of margin variance, which inherently restricts the generalization capability of the model and heightens its vulnerability to overfitting, particularly in noisy or imbalanced datasets. Additionally, the conventional approach of optimizing ensemble weights within the probability simplex often introduces computational inefficiency and scalability challenges, complicating its application to large-scale problems. To tackle these limitations, this paper introduces a novel ensemble learning framework that explicitly incorporates margin variance into the loss function. Our method jointly optimizes the negative expected margin and its variance, leading to enhanced robustness and improved generalization performance. Moreover, by reparameterizing the ensemble weights onto the unit sphere, we substantially simplify the optimization process and improve computational efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently outperforms traditional margin-based ensemble techniques, underscoring its effectiveness and practical utility.


DRtool: An Interactive Tool for Analyzing High-Dimensional Clusterings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Technological advances have spurred an increase in data complexity and dimensionality. We are now in an era in which data sets containing thousands of features are commonplace. To digest and analyze such high-dimensional data, dimension reduction techniques have been developed and advanced along with computational power. Of these techniques, nonlinear methods are most commonly employed because of their ability to construct visually interpretable embeddings. Unlike linear methods, these methods non-uniformly stretch and shrink space to create a visual impression of the high-dimensional data. Since capturing high-dimensional structures in a significantly lower number of dimensions requires drastic manipulation of space, nonlinear dimension reduction methods are known to occasionally produce false structures, especially in noisy settings. In an effort to deal with this phenomenon, we developed an interactive tool that enables analysts to better understand and diagnose their dimension reduction results. It uses various analytical plots to provide a multi-faceted perspective on results to determine legitimacy. The tool is available via an R package named DRtool.


Data-Driven Discovery of Mobility Periodicity for Understanding Urban Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human mobility regularity is crucial for understanding urban dynamics and informing decision-making processes. This study first quantifies the periodicity in complex human mobility data as a sparse identification of dominant positive auto-correlations in time series autoregression and then discovers periodic patterns. We apply the framework to large-scale metro passenger flow data in Hangzhou, China and multi-modal mobility data in New York City and Chicago, USA, revealing the interpretable weekly periodicity across different spatial locations over past several years. The analysis of ridesharing data from 2019 to 2024 demonstrates the disruptive impact of the pandemic on mobility regularity and the subsequent recovery trends. In 2024, the periodic mobility patterns of ridesharing, taxi, subway, and bikesharing in Manhattan uncover the regularity and variability of these travel modes. Our findings highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to discover spatiotemporal mobility patterns and offer a valuable tool for understanding urban systems.


MEMOIR: Lifelong Model Editing with Minimal Overwrite and Informed Retention for LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language models deployed in real-world systems often require post-hoc updates to incorporate new or corrected knowledge. However, editing such models efficiently and reliably-without retraining or forgetting previous information-remains a major challenge. Existing methods for lifelong model editing either compromise generalization, interfere with past edits, or fail to scale to long editing sequences. We propose MEMOIR, a novel scalable framework that injects knowledge through a residual memory, i.e., a dedicated parameter module, while preserving the core capabilities of the pre-trained model. By sparsifying input activations through sample-dependent masks, MEMOIR confines each edit to a distinct subset of the memory parameters, minimizing interference among edits. At inference, it identifies relevant edits by comparing the sparse activation patterns of new queries to those stored during editing. This enables generalization to rephrased queries by activating only the relevant knowledge while suppressing unnecessary memory activation for unrelated prompts. Experiments on question answering, hallucination correction, and out-of-distribution generalization benchmarks for LLaMA-3 and Mistral backbones demonstrate that MEMOIR achieves state-of-the-art performance across reliability, generalization, and locality metrics, scaling to thousands of sequential edits with minimal forgetting.


Tweedie Regression for Video Recommendation System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern recommendation systems aim to increase click-through rates (CTR) for better user experience, through commonly treating ranking as a classification task focused on predicting CTR. However, there is a gap between this method and the actual objectives of businesses across different sectors. In video recommendation services, the objective of video on demand (VOD) extends beyond merely encouraging clicks, but also guiding users to discover their true interests, leading to increased watch time. And longer users watch time will leads to more revenue through increased chances of presenting online display advertisements. This research addresses the issue by redefining the problem from classification to regression, with a focus on maximizing revenue through user viewing time. Due to the lack of positive labels on recommendation, the study introduces Tweedie Loss Function, which is better suited in this scenario than the traditional mean square error loss. The paper also provides insights on how Tweedie process capture users diverse interests. Our offline simulation and online A/B test revealed that we can substantially enhance our core business objectives: user engagement in terms of viewing time and, consequently, revenue. Additionally, we provide a theoretical comparison between the Tweedie Loss and the commonly employed viewing time weighted Logloss, highlighting why Tweedie Regression stands out as an efficient solution. We further outline a framework for designing a loss function that focuses on a singular objective.


Proof of AutoML: SDN based Secure Energy Trading with Blockchain in Disaster Case

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In disaster scenarios where conventional energy infrastructure is compromised, secure and traceable energy trading between solar-powered households and mobile charging units becomes a necessity. To ensure the integrity of such transactions over a blockchain network, robust and unpredictable nonce generation is vital. This study proposes an SDN-enabled architecture where machine learning regressors are leveraged not for their accuracy, but for their potential to generate randomized values suitable as nonce candidates. Therefore, it is newly called Proof of AutoML. Here, SDN allows flexible control over data flows and energy routing policies even in fragmented or degraded networks, ensuring adaptive response during emergencies. Using a 9000-sample dataset, we evaluate five AutoML-selected regression models - Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, Random Forest, Extra Trees, and K-Nearest Neighbors - not by their prediction accuracy, but by their ability to produce diverse and non-deterministic outputs across shuffled data inputs. Randomness analysis reveals that Random Forest and Extra Trees regressors exhibit complete dependency on randomness, whereas Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors and LightGBM show strong but slightly lower randomness scores (97.6%, 98.8% and 99.9%, respectively). These findings highlight that certain machine learning models, particularly tree-based ensembles, may serve as effective and lightweight nonce generators within blockchain-secured, SDN-based energy trading infrastructures resilient to disaster conditions.


Investigating Feature Attribution for 5G Network Intrusion Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rise of fifth-generation (5G) networks in critical applications, it is urgent to move from detection of malicious activity to systems capable of providing a reliable verdict suitable for mitigation. In this regard, understanding and interpreting machine learning (ML) models' security alerts is crucial for enabling actionable incident response orchestration. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques are expected to enhance trust by providing insights into why alerts are raised. A dominant approach statistically associates feature sets that can be correlated to a given alert. This paper starts by questioning whether such attribution is relevant for future generation communication systems, and investigates its merits in comparison with an approach based on logical explanations. We extensively study two methods, SHAP and VoTE-XAI, by analyzing their interpretations of alerts generated by an XGBoost model in three different use cases with several 5G communication attacks. We identify three metrics for assessing explanations: sparsity, how concise they are; stability, how consistent they are across samples from the same attack type; and efficiency, how fast an explanation is generated. As an example, in a 5G network with 92 features, 6 were deemed important by VoTE-XAI for a Denial of Service (DoS) variant, ICMPFlood, while SHAP identified over 20. More importantly, we found a significant divergence between features selected by SHAP and VoTE-XAI. However, none of the top-ranked features selected by SHAP were missed by VoTE-XAI. When it comes to efficiency of providing interpretations, we found that VoTE-XAI is significantly more responsive, e.g. it provides a single explanation in under 0.002 seconds, in a high-dimensional setting (478 features).


Exploring Expert Specialization through Unsupervised Training in Sparse Mixture of Experts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the internal organization of neural networks remains a fundamental challenge in deep learning interpretability. We address this challenge by exploring a novel Sparse Mixture of Experts Variational Autoencoder (SMoE-VAE) architecture. We test our model on the QuickDraw dataset, comparing unsupervised expert routing against a supervised baseline guided by ground-truth labels. Surprisingly, we find that unsupervised routing consistently achieves superior reconstruction performance. The experts learn to identify meaningful sub-categorical structures that often transcend human-defined class boundaries. Through t-SNE visualizations and reconstruction analysis, we investigate how MoE models uncover fundamental data structures that are more aligned with the model's objective than predefined labels. Furthermore, our study on the impact of dataset size provides insights into the trade-offs between data quantity and expert specialization, offering guidance for designing efficient MoE architectures.


Detection of Anomalous Behavior in Robot Systems Based on Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring the safe and reliable operation of robotic systems is paramount to prevent potential disasters and safeguard human well-being. Despite rigorous design and engineering practices, these systems can still experience malfunctions, leading to safety risks. In this study, we present a machine learning-based approach for detecting anomalies in system logs to enhance the safety and reliability of robotic systems. We collected logs from two distinct scenarios using CoppeliaSim and comparatively evaluated several machine learning models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and an Autoencoder. Our system was evaluated in a quadcopter context (Context 1) and a Pioneer robot context (Context 2). Results showed that while LR demonstrated superior performance in Context 1, the Autoencoder model proved to be the most effective in Context 2. This highlights that the optimal model choice is context-dependent, likely due to the varying complexity of anomalies across different robotic platforms. This research underscores the value of a comparative approach and demonstrates the particular strengths of autoencoders for detecting complex anomalies in robotic systems.