Learning curves are a fundamental primitive in supervised learning, describing how an algorithm's performance improves with more data and providing a quantitative measure of its generalization ability. Formally, a learning curve plots the decay of an algorithm's error for a fixed underlying distribution as a function of the number of training samples. Prior work on revenue-maximizing learning algorithms, starting with the seminal work of Cole and Roughgarden [STOC, 2014], adopts a distribution-free perspective, which parallels the PAC learning framework in learning theory. This approach evaluates performance against the hardest possible sequence of valuation distributions, one for each sample size, effectively defining the upper envelope of learning curves over all possible distributions, thus leading to error bounds that do not capture the shape of the learning curves. In this work we initiate the study of learning curves for revenue maximization and provide a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay in the basic setting of a single item and a single buyer. In the absence of any restriction on the valuation distribution, we show that there exists a Bayes-consistent algorithm, meaning that its learning curve converges to zero for any arbitrary valuation distribution as the number of samples $n \to \infty$. However, this convergence must be arbitrarily slow, even if the optimal revenue is finite. In contrast, if the optimal revenue is achieved by a finite price, then the optimal rate of decay is roughly $1/\sqrt{n}$. Finally, for distributions supported on discrete sets of values, we show that learning curves decay almost exponentially fast, a rate unattainable under the PAC framework.

Recalibrating probabilistic classifiers is vital for enhancing the reliability and accuracy of predictive models. Despite the development of numerous recalibration algorithms, there is still a lack of a comprehensive theory that integrates calibration and sharpness (which is essential for maintaining predictive power). In this paper, we introduce the concept of minimum-risk recalibration within the framework of mean-squared-error (MSE) decomposition, offering a principled approach for evaluating and recalibrating probabilistic classifiers. Using this framework, we analyze the uniform-mass binning (UMB) recalibration method and establish a finite-sample risk upper bound of order O(B/n+1/B2) where Bis the number of bins and nis the sample size. By balancing calibration and sharpness, we further determine that the optimal number of bins for UMB scales with n1/3, resulting in a risk bound of approximately O(n 2/3). Additionally, we tackle the challenge of label shift by proposing a two-stage approach that adjusts the recalibration function using limited labeled data from the target domain. Our results show that transferring a calibrated classifier requires significantly fewer target samples compared to recalibrating from scratch. We validate our theoretical findings through numerical simulations, which confirm the tightness of the proposed bounds, the optimal number of bins, and the effectiveness of label shift adaptation.

In this work, we revisit the generalization error of stochastic mirror descent for quadratically bounded losses studied in Telgarsky (2022). Quadratically bounded losses is a broad class of loss functions, capturing both Lipschitz and smooth functions, for both regression and classification problems. We study the high probability generalization for this class of losses on linear predictors in both realizable and non-realizable cases when the data are sampled IID or from a Markov chain. The prior work relies on an intricate coupling argument between the iterates of the original problem and those projected onto a bounded domain. This approach enables blackbox application of concentration inequalities, but also leads to suboptimal guarantees due in part to the use of a union bound across all iterations.

We propose a Bayesian encoder for metric learning. Rather than relying on neural amortization as done in prior works, we learn a distribution over the network weights with the Laplace Approximation. We first prove that the contrastive loss is a negative log-likelihood on the spherical space. We propose three methods that ensure a positive definite covariance matrix. Lastly, we present a novel decomposition of the Generalized Gauss-Newton approximation. Empirically, we show that our Laplacian Metric Learner (LAM) yields well-calibrated uncertainties, reliably detects out-of-distribution examples, and has state-of-the-art predictive performance.

This paper focuses on the high-dimensional sampling of log-concave distributions with composite structures: p (dx) exp( g(x) f(x))dx. We develop a double randomization technique, which leads to a fast underdamped Langevin algorithm with a dimension-independent convergence guarantee.

We present the HOH (Human-Object-Human) Handover Dataset, a large object count dataset with 136 objects, to accelerate data-driven research on handover studies, human-robot handover implementation, and artificial intelligence (AI) on handover parameter estimation from 2D and 3D data of two-person interactions. HOH contains multi-view RGB and depth data, skeletons, fused point clouds, grasp type and handedness labels, object, giver hand, and receiver hand 2D and 3D segmentations, giver and receiver comfort ratings, and paired object metadata and aligned 3D models for 2,720 handover interactions spanning 136 objects and 20 giver-receiver pairs--40 with role-reversal--organized from 40 participants. We also show experimental results of neural networks trained using HOH to perform grasp, orientation, and trajectory prediction. As the only fully markerless handover capture dataset, HOH represents natural human-human handover interactions, overcoming challenges with markered datasets that require specific suiting for body tracking, and lack high-resolution hand tracking. To date, HOH is the largest handover dataset in terms of object count, participant count, pairs with role reversal accounted for, and total interactions captured.

Transformers excel at *in-context learning* (ICL)---learning from demonstrations without parameter updates---but how they do so remains a mystery. Recent work suggests that Transformers may internally run Gradient Descent (GD), a first-order optimization method, to perform ICL. In this paper, we instead demonstrate that Transformers learn to approximate second-order optimization methods for ICL. For in-context linear regression, Transformers share a similar convergence rate as *Iterative Newton's Method*, both *exponentially* faster than GD. Empirically, predictions from successive Transformer layers closely match different iterations of Newton's Method linearly, with each middle layer roughly computing 3 iterations; thus, Transformers and Newton's method converge at roughly the same rate.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties--like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification--which are fundamental to CSS research.