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 Statistical Learning


Less but More: Linear Adaptive Graph Learning Empowering Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

While end-to-end adaptive graph learning methods have demonstrated promising results in capturing latent spatiotemporal dependencies, they often suffer from high computational complexity and limited expressive capacity. In this paper, we propose MAGE for efficient spatiotemporal forecasting. We first conduct a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the ReLU activation function employed in existing methods amplifies edgelevel noise during graph topology learning, thereby compromising the fidelity of the learned graph structures. To enhance model expressiveness, we introduce a sparse yet balanced mixture-of-experts strategy, where each expert perceives the unique underlying graph through kernel-based functions and operates with linear complexity relative to the number of nodes. The sparsity mechanism ensures that each node interacts exclusively with compatible experts, while the balancing mechanism promotes uniform activation across all experts, enabling diverse and adaptive graph representations. Furthermore, we theoretically establish that a single graph convolution using the learned graph in MAGE is mathematically equivalent to multiple convolutional steps under conventional graphs. We evaluate MAGE against advanced baselines on multiple real-world spatiotemporal datasets, and MAGE achieves competitive performance while maintaining strong computational efficiency. Our code is available at official repository.


The quest for the GRAph Level autoEncoder (GRALE)

Neural Information Processing Systems

Although graph-based learning has attracted a lot of attention, graph representation learning is still a challenging task whose resolution may impact key application fields such as chemistry or biology. To this end, we introduce GRALE, a novel graph autoencoder that encodes and decodes graphs of varying sizes into a shared embedding space. GRALE is trained using an Optimal Transport-inspired loss that compares the original and reconstructed graphs and leverages a differentiable node matching module, which is trained jointly with the encoder and decoder. The proposed attention-based architecture relies on Evoformer, the core component of AlphaFold, which we extend to support both graph encoding and decoding. We show, in numerical experiments on simulated and molecular data, that GRALE enables a highly general form of pre-training, applicable to a wide range of downstream tasks, from classification and regression to more complex tasks such as graph interpolation, editing, matching, and prediction.1


Disentangled Cross-Modal Representation Learning with Enhanced Mutual Supervision

Neural Information Processing Systems

Cross-modal representation learning aims to extract semantically aligned representations from heterogeneous modalities such as images and text. Existing multimodal VAE-based models often suffer from limited capability to align heterogeneous modalities or lack sufficient structural constraints to clearly separate the modality-specific and shared factors. In this work, we propose a novel framework, termed Disentangled Cross-Modal Representation Learning with Enhanced Mutual Supervision (DCMEM). Specifically, our model disentangles the common and distinct information across modalities and regularizes the shared representation learned from each modality in a mutually supervised manner. Moreover, we incorporate the information bottleneck principle into our model to ensure that the shared and modality-specific factors encode exclusive yet complementary information. Notably, our model is designed to be trainable on both complete and partial multimodal datasets with a valid Evidence Lower Bound. Extensive experimental results demonstrate significant improvements of our model over existing methods on various tasks including cross-modal generation, clustering and classification.


p-value Adjustment for Monotonous, Unbiased, and Fast Clustering Comparison

Neural Information Processing Systems

Popular metrics for clustering comparison, like the Adjusted Rand Index and the Adjusted Mutual Information, are type II biased. The Standardized Mutual Information removes this bias but suffers from counterintuitive non-monotonicity and poor computational efficiency. We introduce the p-value adjusted Rand Index (PMI2), the first cluster comparison method that is type II unbiased and provably monotonous. The PMI2 has fast approximations that outperform the Standardized Mutual information. We demonstrate its unbiased clustering selection, approximation quality, and runtime efficiency on synthetic benchmarks. In experiments on image and social network datasets, we show how the PMI2 can help practitioners choose better clustering and community detection algorithms.


ASingle-Loop First-Order Algorithm for Linearly Constrained Bilevel Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study bilevel optimization problems where the lower-level problems are strongly convex and have coupled linear constraints. To overcome the potential nonsmoothness of the hyper-objective and the computational challenges associated with the Hessian matrix, we utilize penalty and augmented Lagrangian methods to reformulate the original problem as a single-level one. Especially, we establish a strong theoretical connection between the reformulated function and the original hyper-objective by characterizing the closeness of their values and derivatives. Based on this reformulation, we propose a single-loop, first-order algorithm for linearly constrained bilevel optimization (SFLCB). We provide rigorous analyses of its non-asymptotic convergence rates, showing an improvement over prior double-loop algorithms - form O(ϵ 3 log(ϵ 1))to O(ϵ 3). The experiments corroborate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical efficiency of the proposed SFLCB algorithm.


State-Covering Trajectory Stitching for Diffusion Planners

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diffusion-based generative models are emerging as powerful tools for long-horizon planning in reinforcement learning (RL), particularly with offline datasets. However, their performance is fundamentally limited by the quality and diversity of training data. This often restricts their generalization to tasks outside their training distribution or longer planning horizons. To overcome this challenge, we propose State-Covering Trajectory Stitching (SCoTS), a novel reward-free trajectory augmentation method that incrementally stitches together short trajectory segments, systematically generating diverse and extended trajectories. SCoTS first learns a temporal distance-preserving latent representation that captures the underlying temporal structure of the environment, then iteratively stitches trajectory segments guided by directional exploration and novelty to effectively cover and expand this latent space. We demonstrate that SCoTS significantly improves the performance and generalization capabilities of diffusion planners on offline goal-conditioned benchmarks requiring stitching and long-horizon reasoning. Furthermore, augmented trajectories generated by SCoTS significantly improve the performance of widely used offline goal-conditioned RL algorithms across diverse environments. Our code is available at https://github.com/leekwoon/scots/


Adaptive Algorithms with Sharp Convergence Rates for Stochastic Hierarchical Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Hierarchical optimization refers to problems with interdependent decision variables and objectives, such as minimax and bilevel formulations. While various algorithms have been proposed, existing methods and analyses lack adaptivity in stochastic optimization settings: they cannot achieve optimal convergence rates across a wide spectrum of gradient noise levels without prior knowledge of the noise magnitude. In this paper, we propose novel adaptive algorithms for two important classes of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems: nonconvex-strongly-concave minimax optimization and nonconvex-strongly-convex bilevel optimization. Our algorithms achieve sharp convergence rates of eO(1/ T + σ/T1/4) in T iterations for the gradient norm, where σ is an upper bound on the stochastic gradient noise. Notably, these rates are obtained without prior knowledge of the noise level, thereby enabling automatic adaptivity in both low and high-noise regimes. To our knowledge, this work provides the first adaptive and sharp convergence guarantees for stochastic hierarchical optimization. Our algorithm design combines the momentum normalization technique with novel adaptive parameter choices. Extensive experiments on synthetic and deep learning tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.


Cancer Survival Analysis via Zero-shot Tumor Microenvironment Segmentation on Low-resolution Whole Slide Pathology Images

Neural Information Processing Systems

The whole-slide pathology images (WSIs) are widely recognized as the golden standard for cancer survival analysis. However, due to the high-resolution of WSIs, the existing studies require dividing WSIs into patches and identify key components before building the survival prediction system, which is time-consuming and cannot reflect the overall spatial organization of WSIs. Inspired by the fact that the spatial interactions among different tumor microenvironment (TME) components in WSIs are associated with the cancer prognosis, some studies attempt to capture the complex interactions among different TME components to improve survival predictions. However, they require extra efforts for building the TME segmentation model, which involves substantial annotation workloads on different TME components and is independent to the construction of the survival prediction model. To address the above issues, we propose ZTSurv, a novel end-to-end cancer survival analysis framework via efficient zero-shot TME segmentation on low-resolution WSIs. Specifically, by leveraging tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) maps on the 50x down-sampled WSIs, ZTSurv enables zero-shot segmentation on other two important TME components (i.e., tumor and stroma) that can reduce the annotation efforts from the pathologists. Then, based on the visual and semantic information extracted from different TME components, we construct a heterogeneous graph to capture their spatial intersections for clinical outcome prediction. We validate ZTSurv across four cancer cohorts derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and the experimental results indicate that our method can not only achieve superior prediction results but also significantly reduce the computational costs in comparison with the state-of-the-art methods.


What Moves the Eyes: Doubling Mechanistic Model Performance Using Deep Networks to Discover and Test Cognitive Hypotheses

Neural Information Processing Systems

Understanding how humans move their eyes to gather visual information is a central question in neuroscience, cognitive science, and vision research. While recent deep learning (DL) models achieve state-of-the-art performance in predicting human scanpaths, their underlying decision processes remain opaque. At an opposite end of the modeling spectrum, cognitively inspired mechanistic models aim to explain scanpath behavior through interpretable cognitive mechanisms but lag far behind in predictive accuracy. In this work, we bridge this gap by using a high-performing deep model--DeepGaze III--to discover and test mechanisms that improve a leading mechanistic model, SceneWalk. By identifying individual fixations where DeepGaze III succeeds and SceneWalk fails, we isolate behaviorally meaningful discrepancies and use them to motivate targeted extensions of the mechanistic framework. These include time-dependent temperature scaling, saccadic momentum and an adaptive cardinal attention bias: Simple, interpretable additions that substantially boost predictive performance. With these extensions, SceneWalk's explained variance on the MIT1003 dataset doubles from 35% to 70%, setting a new state of the art in mechanistic scanpath prediction. Our findings show how performance-optimized neural networks can serve as tools for cognitive model discovery, offering a new path toward interpretable and high-performing models of visual behavior.


Handling Missing Responses under Cluster Dependence with Applications to Language Model Evaluation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Human annotations play a crucial role in evaluating the performance of GenAI models. Two common challenges in practice, however, are missing annotations (the response variable of interest) and cluster dependence among human-AI interactions (e.g., questions asked by the same user may be highly correlated). Reliable inference must address both issues to achieve unbiased estimation and appropriately quantify uncertainty when estimating average scores from human annotations. In this paper, we analyze the doubly robust estimator, a widely used method in missing data analysis and causal inference, applied to this setting and establish novel theoretical properties under cluster dependence. We further illustrate our findings through simulations and a real-world conversation quality dataset. Our theoretical and empirical results underscore the importance of incorporating cluster dependence in missing response problems to perform valid statistical inference.