We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. Noteworthy aspects of our method include a model-based mechanism to replace heuristic logic typically used to initiate and destroy tracks, and an assignment posterior with linear computation cost in window length as opposed to the exponential scaling of previous MAP-based approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. The field of tracking is broad and possesses many applications, particularly in radar/sonar [1], robotics [14], and computer vision [3].

We propose a semi-parametric and dynamic rank factor model for topic modeling, capable of (i) discovering topic prevalence over time, and (ii) learning contemporary multi-scale dependence structures, providing topic and word correlations as a byproduct. The high-dimensional and time-evolving ordinal/rank observations (such as word counts), after an arbitrary monotone transformation, are well accommodated through an underlying dynamic sparse factor model. The framework naturally admits heavy-tailed innovations, capable of inferring abrupt temporal jumps in the importance of topics. Posterior inference is performed through straightforward Gibbs sampling, based on the forward-filtering backward-sampling algorithm. Moreover, an efficient data subsampling scheme is leveraged to speed up inference on massive datasets. The modeling framework is illustrated on two real datasets: the US State of the Union Address and the JSTOR collection from Science .

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Detecting the emergence of an abrupt change-point is a classic problem in statistics and machine learning. Kernel-based nonparametric statistics have been proposed for this task which make fewer assumptions on the distributions than traditional parametric approach. However, none of the existing kernel statistics has provided a computationally efficient way to characterize the extremal behavior of the statistic. Such characterization is crucial for setting the detection threshold, to control the significance level in the offline case as well as the average run length in the online case. In this paper we propose two related computationally efficient M -statistics for kernel-based change-point detection when the amount of background data is large. A novel theoretical result of the paper is the characterization of the tail probability of these statistics using a new technique based on change-of-measure. Such characterization provides us accurate detection thresholds for both offline and online cases in computationally efficient manner, without the need to resort to the more expensive simulations such as bootstrapping. We show that our methods perform well in both synthetic and real world data.

Orthogonal Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (ONMF) aims to approximate a nonnegative matrix as the product of two k -dimensional nonnegative factors, one of which has orthonormal columns. It yields potentially useful data representations as superposition of disjoint parts, while it has been shown to work well for clustering tasks where traditional methods underperform. Existing algorithms rely mostly on heuristics, which despite their good empirical performance, lack provable performance guarantees. We present a new ONMF algorithm with provable approximation guarantees. For any constant dimension k, we obtain an additive EPT AS without any assumptions on the input. Our algorithm relies on a novel approximation to the related Nonnegative Principal Component Analysis (NNPCA) problem; given an arbitrary data matrix, NNPCA seeks k nonnegative components that jointly capture most of the variance. Our NNPCA algorithm is of independent interest and generalizes previous work that could only obtain guarantees for a single component. We evaluate our algorithms on several real and synthetic datasets and show that their performance matches or outperforms the state of the art.

Network theory studies the interaction of connected systems of agents.