Dynamics of interacting systems in engineering, society, and nature often evolve over latent networks that govern which entities can interact. We study the problem of inferring these networks from event-based observations, which arise naturally in finance, seismology, and neuroscience. While there is substantial algorithmic work addressing this important problem, theoretical results are scarce. In this paper we ask the following fundamental question: what is the minimum time that one must observe the dynamics in order to exactly recover the underlying network, as a function of the number $d$ of interacting entities? For a class of stationary Hawkes processes with sparse, weak interactions, we prove that an observation time of order $\log d$ is sufficient and necessary. For the upper bound we construct a two-stage estimator that uses clipped and binned event data for screening, followed by a least-squares refinement, and apply concentration bounds derived from the Poisson cluster representation. For the lower bound we combine Fano's inequality with Jacod's Girsanov formula for point processes on a suitable subclass of networks.

We present a data-adaptive method for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large neural networks. Standard low-rank adaptation methods improve efficiency by restricting each layer update to a fixed low-rank form, but this static parameterization can be too rigid when the appropriate correction depends on the input and on the evolving depth-wise computation of the network. Our approach replaces a purely layer-local adapter with a shared queryable memory of low-rank update atoms. For each block of layers, the model forms a query from the current low-rank state and a running summary of previous blocks, uses this query to retrieve a content-dependent combination of shared update components via attention, and applies the resulting routed operator within the low-rank bottleneck. In this way, the method retains the efficiency and scalability of low-rank adaptation while allowing the effective update to vary across inputs and to share reusable structure across layers. The resulting architecture provides a principled middle ground between static LoRA-style updates and fully generated parameter updates: it remains compact and parameter-efficient while supporting dynamic, context-sensitive adaptation. Further, we incorporate instruction-regularization by augmenting routing logits with a language-induced prior over update atoms, thereby biasing the selection of low-rank transformations toward semantically relevant directions without generating unconstrained parameter updates. Experiments on noisy non-linear regression tasks and LLM fine-tuning suggest that this queryable update-memory formulation can improve final test performance and training stability compared to standard low-rank adaptation, while using a comparable number of trainable parameters.

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.

We introduce the Sinkhorn treatment effect, an entropic optimal transport measure of divergence between counterfactual distributions. Unlike classical quantities such as the average treatment effect, this measure captures differences across entire distributions. We analyze this divergence as a statistical functional and show it can be written as a smooth transformation of counterfactual mean embeddings with an appropriate kernel. This characterization allows us to establish first-order pathwise differentiability in general, and second-order pathwise differentiability under the null hypothesis of equal counterfactual distributions. Leveraging this smoothness, we construct debiased estimators and use them to obtain asymptotically valid tests for distributional treatment effects with a fixed entropic regularization parameter. Because the power of the test depends on this unknown parameter, we further propose an aggregated test that combines evidence across a grid of regularization choices. Experiments on simulated and image data demonstrate the practical advantages of our estimator and testing procedure.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a foundational tool for unsupervised representation learning, yet its high-dimensional theory remains largely limited to single-component recovery. We develop an asymptotically exact mean-field theory for multi-component online ICA, capturing the coupling induced by simultaneous learning and orthogonalization. In the high-dimensional limit, the joint empirical distribution of learned estimates and ground-truth components converges to a deterministic process, yielding a closed ODE system for the overlap matrix between learned directions and true components. This characterization reveals a genuinely multi-component, initialization-driven phase structure: a decoupled regime, where estimates align with distinct components and evolve nearly independently, and a competition regime, where overlapping initializations induce orthogonality-driven conflicts, slow reorientation, and delayed convergence. Our steady-state analysis gives explicit learnability boundaries and competition conditions linking step size, data moments, and initialization. These conditions show that larger higher-order moments and competition shrink the stable learning-rate window, increase convergence times, and predict a staircase phenomenon in which the number of recoverable components changes discretely with the learning rate. Experiments on synthetic data and hyperspectral remote sensing data validate the predicted trajectories and phase behavior.

Density estimation and reliable prediction regions for outputs are crucial in supervised and unsupervised learning. While conformal prediction effectively generates coverage-guaranteed regions, it struggles with multi-dimensional outputs due to reliance on one-dimensional nonconformity scores. To address this, we introduce CONTRA: CONformal prediction region via normalizing flow TRAnsformation. CONTRA utilizes the latent spaces of normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances from the center. This allows for the mapping of high-density regions in latent space to sharp prediction regions in the output space, surpassing traditional hyperrectangular or elliptical conformal regions. Further, for scenarios where other predictive models are favored over flow-based models, we extend CONTRA to enhance any such model with a reliable prediction region by training a simple normalizing flow on the residuals. We demonstrate that both CONTRA and its extension maintain guaranteed coverage probability and outperform existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions across various datasets. We conclude that CONTRA is an effective tool for (conditional) density estimation, addressing the under-explored challenge of delivering multi-dimensional prediction regions.

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.

This paper investigates the learning theory of Transformer networks for regression tasks on the compact Euclidean domain $[0,1]^d$ and $d$-dimensional compact Riemannian manifolds. We propose a novel constructive approximation framework for Transformers that builds local approximations of the target function and aggregates them into a global approximation via softmax partition of unity. This approach leverages the attention mechanism to achieve spatial localization through affine transformations of the input. The softmax activation plays a crucial role in aggregating local approximations to a global output. From an approximation perspective, we prove that a dense Transformer equipped with only two encoder blocks and standard single-hidden-layer point-wise feed-forward networks can achieve a uniform $\varepsilon$-approximation error for $α$-Hölder continuous functions with $α\in (0,1]$ using $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-d/α})$ total parameters. Building upon this approximation guarantee, we establish a near minimax-optimal generalization error bound of order $\mathcal{O}\big(n^{-\frac{2α}{2α+d}} \log n\big)$ for the empirical risk minimizer, where $n$ is the training data size. The Transformer architecture studied in this paper is dense, shallow and wide, and employs softmax activation and sinusoidal positional encodings, closely reflecting practical implementations.

Large-scale machine learning models are trained on clusters of machines that exhibit heterogeneous performance due to hardware variability, network delays, and system-level instabilities. In such environments, time complexity rather than iteration complexity becomes the relevant performance metric for optimization algorithms. Recent work by Tyurin and Richtárik [2023] established the first time complexity analysis for parallel first-order stochastic optimization, proposing Rennala SGD as a time-optimal method for smooth nonconvex optimization. However, Rennala SGD is fundamentally a modification of SGD, and variance reduction techniques are known to improve the iteration complexity of SGD. In this work, we investigate whether variance reduction can also improve time complexity in heterogeneous systems. We show that, under a mean-squared smoothness assumption, variance reduction can improve time complexity in relevant parameter regimes. To this end, we propose Rennala MVR, a variance-reduced extension of Rennala SGD based on momentum-based variance reduction, and analyze its oracle and time complexity. We establish lower bounds for time complexity under these assumptions.

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: \textit{Gradient-Laplace} selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while \textit{Greedy-Laplace} iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.