Domain adaptation faces a fundamental paradox in the cold-start regime. When target data is scarce, statistical methods fail to distinguish relevant source domains from irrelevant ones, which often leads to negative transfer. In this paper, we address this challenge by leveraging expert textual descriptions of the target domain, a resource that is often available but overlooked. We propose a probabilistic framework that translates these semantic descriptions into a choice model, namely a Language-Induced Prior (LIP), that learns the preferences from a pretrained Large Language Model (LLM). The LIP is then integrated into an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to identify source relevance. Methodologically, this framework is compatible with any parametric model where a likelihood is available. It allows the LIP to guide the selection of sources when target signals are weak, while gradually refining these choices as samples accumulate. Theoretically, we prove that the estimator roughly matches an oracle cold-start MSE under a correct prior, while remaining asymptotically consistent regardless of the quality of the LIP. Empirically, we validated the framework on a descriptive (Gaussian estimation), a predictive (C-MAPSS dataset), and a prescriptive task (MuJoCo hopper).

Nearest-neighbor methods are fundamental to classical and modern machine learning, yet their geometric properties are typically analyzed under independent sampling. In this paper, we study the nearest-neighbor radii under dependent sampling. We consider strong mixing dependent observations and ask whether dependence changes the scale of nearest-neighbor neighborhoods. We establish distribution-free almost sure convergence under polynomial mixing and sharp non-asymptotic moment bounds under geometric mixing. The moment bounds depend on the local intrinsic dimension rather than the ambient dimension, making the results applicable to high-dimensional data concentrated near lower-dimensional manifolds. Synthetic experiments and real-world time-series benchmarks support the theory, showing that nearest-neighbor geometry remains informative under dependence sampling.

Recent studies have reported $\textit{saturation effects}$ and $\textit{multiple descent behavior}$ in large dimensional kernel ridge regression (KRR). However, these findings are predominantly derived under restrictive settings, such as inner product kernels on sphere or strong eigenfunction assumptions like hypercontractivity. Whether such behaviors hold for other kernels remains an open question. In this paper, we establish a broad, new family of large dimensional kernels and derive the corresponding convergence rates of the generalization error. As a result, we recover key phenomena previously associated with inner product kernels on sphere, including: $i)$ the $\textit{minimax optimality}$ when the source condition $s\le 1$; $ii)$ the $\textit{saturation effect}$ when $s>1$; $iii)$ a $\textit{periodic plateau phenomenon}$ in the convergence rate and a $\textit {multiple-descent behavior}$ with respect to the sample size $n$.

We propose a simple mechanism by which scaling laws emerge from feature learning in multi-layer networks. We study a high-dimensional hierarchical target that is a globally high-degree function, but that can be represented by a combination of latent compositional features whose weights decrease as a power law. We show that a layer-wise spectral algorithm adapted to this compositional structure achieves improved scaling relative to shallow, non-adaptive methods, and recovers the latent directions sequentially: strong features become detectable at small sample sizes, while weaker features require more data. We prove sharp feature-wise recovery thresholds and show that aggregating these transitions yields an explicit power-law decay of the prediction error. Technically, the analysis relies on random matrix methods and a resolvent-based perturbation argument, which gives matching upper and lower bounds for individual eigenvector recovery beyond what standard gap-based perturbation bounds provide. Numerical experiments confirm the predicted sequential recovery, finite-size smoothing of the thresholds, and separation from non-hierarchical kernel baselines. Together, these results show how smooth scaling laws can emerge from a cascade of sharp feature-learning transitions.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been studied extensively over the past decades due to its simplicity and broad applicability in machine learning. In this work, we analyze the local behavior of gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent for minimizing $C^2$-functions that satisfy the Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) inequality and under a multiplicative gradient noise model motivated by overparameterized neural networks. Using a geometric interpretation of the PL-condition, we prove a simple yet surprising fact: in this possibly non-convex setting, the asymptotic convergence rate of (S)GD matches the rate obtained for strongly convex quadratics.

Existing clustering methods for functional data often prioritize partitioning accuracy over interpretability, making it challenging to extract meaningful insights when the data-generating process follows a specific underlying structure and an ordinal relationship among clusters is suspected. This work introduces K-Models, a novel framework that integrates ordinal constraints and estimates key underlying elements of the random process generating the observed functional profiles, improving both interpretability and structure identification. The proposed method is evaluated through simulations and real-world applications. In particular, it is tested on Region of Interest (ROI) curves, which represent reaction profiles from a reflectometric sensor monitoring biomolecular interactions, such as antigen-antibody binding. These curves represent changes in reflected light intensity over time at multiple measurement spots with immobilized antigens during analyte exposure, capturing the binding dynamics of the system. The goal is to identify intrinsic signal patterns solely from the observed dynamics, making this dataset an ideal benchmark for assessing the added interpretability of the proposed approach. By incorporating structural assumptions into the clustering process, K-Models enhances interpretability while maintaining performance comparable to state-of-the-art techniques, providing a valuable tool for analyzing functional data with an underlying ordinal structure.

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as $\sqrt{T}$ times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.

We study a prototypical situation when a learned predictor can discover useful low-dimensional structure in data, while using fewer samples than are needed for accurate prediction. Specifically, we consider the problem of recovering a multi-index polynomial $f^*(x)=h(Ux)$, with $U\in\mathbb{R}^{r\times d}$ and $r\ll d$, from finitely many data/label pairs. Importantly, the target function depends on input $x$ only through the projection onto an unknown $r$-dimensional central subspace. The algorithm we analyze is appealingly simple: fit kernel ridge regression (KRR) to the data and compute the Average Gradient Outer Product (AGOP) from the fitted predictor. Our main results show that under reasonable assumptions the top $r$-dimensional eigenspace of AGOP provably recovers the central subspace, even in regimes when the prediction error remains large. Specifically, if the target function $f^*$ has degree $p^*$, it is known that $n\asymp d^{p^*}$ samples are necessary for KRR to achieve accurate prediction. In contrast, we show that if a low degree $p$ component of $f^*$ already carries all relevant directions for prediction, subspace recovery occurs in the much lower sample regime $n\asymp d^{p+δ}$ for any $δ\in(0,1)$. Our results thus demonstrate a separation between prediction and representation, and provide an explanation for why iterative kernel methods such as Recursive Feature Machines (RFM) can be sample-efficient in practice.

Feature attribution analysis is critical for interpreting machine learning models and supporting reliable data-driven decisions. However, feature attribution measures often exhibit stochastic variation: different train--test splits, random seeds, or model-fitting procedures can produce substantially different attribution values and feature rankings. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating stochastic nature of feature attribution and a robust attribution metric, RoSHAP, for stable feature ranking based on the SHAP metric. The proposed framework models the distribution of feature attribution scores and estimates it through bootstrap resampling and kernel density estimation. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the aggregated feature attribution score is asymptotically Gaussian, which greatly reduces the computational cost of distribution estimation. The RoSHAP summarizes the distribution of SHAP into a robust feature-ranking criterion that simultaneously rewards features that are active, strong, and stable. Through simulations and real-data experiments, the proposed framework and RoSHAP outperform standard single-run attribution measures in identifying signal features. In addition, models built using RoSHAP-selected features achieve predictive performance comparable to full-feature models while using substantially fewer predictors. The proposed RoSHAP approach improves the stability and interpretability of machine learning models, enabling reliable and consistent insights for analysis.

Every adaptive learning system must alternate between two operations: consolidating what it already knows and expanding into new evidence. We propose \emph{Consolidation-Expansion Operator Mechanics} (OpMech), a framework that makes this structure precise. The central object is the \emph{order-gap} $\Ogap(θ; e)$, the degree to which a consolidation operator~$Q$ and an expansion operator~$P_e$ fail to commute at a given knowledge state. Because the order-gap is computable from the system's own trajectory, it serves as a real-time control signal: large values indicate that the system is still sensitive to the ordering of consolidation and expansion; once the order-gap falls and stays small, further processing is unlikely to change the outcome. Three results give the signal precise meaning: the order-gap decays along convergent trajectories; a persistently large order-gap implies the system is far from its settled state; and an order-gap-based stopping rule terminates with provable guarantees in both noiseless and bounded-noise settings. The framework applies across five domains: bandits, reinforcement learning, stochastic optimization, continual learning, and recursive language models. We give conditions under which the order-gap reliably tracks convergence in three representative cases. We develop the recursive language model application in detail, showing how OpMech replaces heuristic stopping rules and fixed recursion budgets with principled, evidence-driven alternatives.