Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for creating prediction regions with a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a conformal prediction region is only approximate, jeopardizing the finite-sample validity of prediction, (ii) the computation required could be prohibitively expensive, and (iii) the shape of a conformal prediction region is hard to control. This article offers new insights into the relationship among the monotonicity of the non-conformity measure, the monotonicity of the plausibility function, and the exact determination of a conformal prediction region. Based on these new insights, we propose a simple strategy to alleviate the three challenges simultaneously.

Disclosing private information via publication of a machine learning model is often a concern. Intuitively, publishing a learned model should be less risky than publishing a dataset. But how much risk is there? In this paper, we present a principled disclosure metric called \emph{gradient uniqueness} that is derived from an upper bound on the amount of information disclosure from publishing a learned model. Gradient uniqueness provides an intuitive way to perform privacy auditing. The mathematical derivation of gradient uniqueness is general, and does not make any assumption on the model architecture, dataset type, or the strategy of an attacker. We examine a simple defense based on monitoring gradient uniqueness, and find that it achieves privacy comparable to classical methods such as DP-SGD, while being substantially better in terms of (utility) testing accuracy.

High-dimensional regression often suffers from heavy-tailed noise and outliers, which can severely undermine the reliability of least-squares based methods. To improve robustness, we adopt a non-smooth Wilcoxon score based rank objective and incorporate structured group sparsity regularization, a natural generalization of the lasso, yielding a group lasso regularized rank regression method. By extending the tuning-free parameter selection scheme originally developed for the lasso, we introduce a data-driven, simulation-based tuning rule and further establish a finite-sample error bound for the resulting estimator. On the computational side, we develop a proximal augmented Lagrangian method for solving the associated optimization problem, which eliminates the singularity issues encountered in existing methods, thereby enabling efficient semismooth Newton updates for the subproblems. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed estimator against alternatives, and showcase the scalability of the algorithm across both simulated and real-data settings.

Sequential data - ranging from financial time series to natural language - has driven the growing adoption of autoregressive models. However, these algorithms rely on the presence of underlying patterns in the data, and their identification often depends heavily on human expertise. Misinterpreting these patterns can lead to model misspecification, resulting in increased generalization error and degraded performance. The recently proposed evolving pattern (EvoRate) metric addresses this by using the mutual information between the next data point and its past to guide regression order estimation and feature selection. Building on this idea, we introduce a general framework based on predictive information, defined as the mutual information between the past and the future, $I(X_{past}; X_{future})$. This quantity naturally defines an information-theoretic learning curve, which quantifies the amount of predictive information available as the observation window grows. Using this formalism, we show that the presence or absence of temporal patterns fundamentally constrains the learnability of sequential models: even an optimal predictor cannot outperform the intrinsic information limit imposed by the data. We validate our framework through experiments on synthetic data, demonstrating its ability to assess model adequacy, quantify the inherent complexity of a dataset, and reveal interpretable structure in sequential data.

Selecting an effective step-size is a fundamental challenge in first-order optimization, especially for problems with non-Euclidean geometries. This paper presents a novel adaptive step-size strategy for optimization algorithms that rely on linear minimization oracles, as used in the Conditional Gradient or non-Euclidean Normalized Steepest Descent algorithms. Using a simple heuristic to estimate a local Lipschitz constant for the gradient, we can determine step-sizes that guarantee sufficient decrease at each iteration. More precisely, we establish convergence guarantees for our proposed Adaptive Conditional Gradient Descent algorithm, which covers as special cases both the classical Conditional Gradient algorithm and non-Euclidean Normalized Steepest Descent algorithms with adaptive step-sizes. Our analysis covers optimization of continuously differentiable functions in non-convex, quasar-convex, and strongly convex settings, achieving convergence rates that match state-of-the-art theoretical bounds. Comprehensive numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings and illustrate the practical effectiveness of Adaptive Conditional Gradient Descent. The results exhibit competitive performance, underscoring the potential of the adaptive step-size for applications.

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein class probabilities and other statistics of the sampling distribution deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization problem and seek the closest model in Kullback-Leibler divergence satisfying calibration constraints. To address the intractability of imposing these constraints exactly, we introduce two surrogate objectives for fine-tuning: (1) the relax loss, which replaces the constraint with a miscalibration penalty, and (2) the reward loss, which converts calibration into a reward fine-tuning problem. We demonstrate that these approaches substantially reduce calibration error across hundreds of simultaneous constraints and models with up to one billion parameters, spanning applications in protein design, image generation, and language modeling.

PAC generalization bounds on the risk, when expressed in terms of the expected loss, are often insufficient to capture imbalances between subgroups in the data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a new family of risk measures, called constrained f-entropic risk measures, which enable finer control over distributional shifts and subgroup imbalances via f-divergences, and include the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a well-known risk measure. We derive both classical and disintegrated PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for this family of risks, providing the first disintegratedPAC-Bayesian guarantees beyond standard risks. Building on this theory, we design a self-bounding algorithm that minimizes our bounds directly, yielding models with guarantees at the subgroup level. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the usefulness of our approach.

Derivative-free Bayesian inversion is an important task in many science and engineering applications, particularly when computing the forward model derivative is computationally and practically challenging. In this paper, we introduce Blade, which can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors for Bayesian inversion using an ensemble of interacting particles. Blade leverages powerful data-driven priors based on diffusion models, and can handle nonlinear forward models that permit only black-box access (i.e., derivative-free). Theoretically, we establish a non-asymptotic convergence analysis to characterize the effects of forward model and prior estimation errors. Empirically, Blade achieves superior performance compared to existing derivative-free Bayesian inversion methods on various inverse problems, including challenging highly nonlinear fluid dynamics.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable performance in generating high-dimensional samples across domains such as vision, language, and the sciences. Although continuous-state diffusion models have been extensively studied both empirically and theoretically, discrete-state diffusion models, essential for applications involving text, sequences, and combinatorial structures, remain significantly less understood from a theoretical standpoint. In particular, all existing analyses of discrete-state models assume score estimation error bounds without studying sample complexity results. In this work, we present a principled theoretical framework for discrete-state diffusion, providing the first sample complexity bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2})$. Our structured decomposition of the score estimation error into statistical, approximation, optimization, and clipping components offers critical insights into how discrete-state models can be trained efficiently. This analysis addresses a fundamental gap in the literature and establishes the theoretical tractability and practical relevance of discrete-state diffusion models.

Recent studies in 3D object detection for autonomous vehicles aim to enrich features through the utilization of multi-modal setups or the extraction of local patterns within LiDAR point clouds. However, multi-modal methods face significant challenges in feature alignment, and gaining features locally can be oversimplified for complex 3D object detection tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel model, NV3D, which utilizes local features acquired from voxel neighbors, as normal vectors computed per voxel basis using K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and principal component analysis (PCA). This informative feature enables NV3D to determine the relationship between the surface and pertinent target entities, including cars, pedestrians, or cyclists. During the normal vector extraction process, NV3D offers two distinct sampling strategies: normal vector density-based sampling and FOV-aware bin-based sampling, allowing elimination of up to 55% of data while maintaining performance. In addition, we applied element-wise attention fusion, which accepts voxel features as the query and value and normal vector features as the key, similar to the attention mechanism. Our method is trained on the KITTI dataset and has demonstrated superior performance in car and cyclist detection owing to their spatial shapes. In the validation set, NV3D without sampling achieves 86.60% and 80.18% mean Average Precision (mAP), greater than the baseline Voxel R-CNN by 2.61% and 4.23% mAP, respectively. With both samplings, NV3D achieves 85.54% mAP in car detection, exceeding the baseline by 1.56% mAP, despite roughly 55% of voxels being filtered out.