Statistical Learning
Row-wise Fusion Regularization: An Interpretable Personalized Federated Learning Framework in Large-Scale Scenarios
Zhou, Runlin, Li, Letian, Zheng, Zemin
We study personalized federated learning for multivariate responses where client models are heterogeneous yet share variable-level structure. Existing entry-wise penalties ignore cross-response dependence, while matrix-wise fusion over-couples clients. We propose a Sparse Row-wise Fusion (SROF) regularizer that clusters row vectors across clients and induces within-row sparsity, and we develop RowFed, a communication-efficient federated algorithm that embeds SROF into a linearized ADMM framework with privacy-preserving partial participation. Theoretically, we establish an oracle property for SROF-achieving correct variable-level group recovery with asymptotic normality-and prove convergence of RowFed to a stationary solution. Under random client participation, the iterate gap contracts at a rate that improves with participation probability. Empirically, simulations in heterogeneous regimes show that RowFed consistently lowers estimation and prediction error and strengthens variable-level cluster recovery over NonFed, FedAvg, and a personalized matrix-fusion baseline. A real-data study further corroborates these gains while preserving interpretability. Together, our results position row-wise fusion as an effective and transparent paradigm for large-scale personalized federated multivariate learning, bridging the gap between entry-wise and matrix-wise formulations.
Poultry Farm Intelligence: An Integrated Multi-Sensor AI Platform for Enhanced Welfare and Productivity
Panagi, Pieris, Karatsiolis, Savvas, Mosphilis, Kyriacos, Hadjisavvas, Nicholas, Kamilaris, Andreas, Nicolaou, Nicolas, Stavrakis, Efstathios, Vassiliades, Vassilis
Poultry farming faces increasing pressure to meet productivity targets while ensuring animal welfare and environmental compliance. Yet many small and medium-sized farms lack affordable, integrated tools for continuous monitoring and decision-making, relying instead on manual, reactive inspections. This paper presents Poultry Farm Intelligence (PoultryFI) - a modular, cost-effective platform that integrates six AI-powered modules: Camera Placement Optimizer, Audio-Visual Monitoring, Analytics & Alerting, Real-Time Egg Counting, Production & Profitability Forecasting, and a Recommendation Module. Camera layouts are first optimized offline using evolutionary algorithms for full poultry house coverage with minimal hardware. The Audio-Visual Monitoring module extracts welfare indicators from synchronized video, audio, and feeding data. Analytics & Alerting produces daily summaries and real-time notifications, while Real-Time Egg Counting uses an edge vision model to automate production tracking. Forecasting models predict egg yield and feed consumption up to 10 days in advance, and the Recommendation Module integrates forecasts with weather data to guide environmental and operational adjustments. This is among the first systems to combine low-cost sensing, edge analytics, and prescriptive AI to continuously monitor flocks, predict production, and optimize performance. Field trials demonstrate 100% egg-count accuracy on Raspberry Pi 5, robust anomaly detection, and reliable short-term forecasting. PoultryFI bridges the gap between isolated pilot tools and scalable, farm-wide intelligence, empowering producers to proactively safeguard welfare and profitability.
Semi-Supervised Regression with Heteroscedastic Pseudo-Labels
Sun, Xueqing, Wang, Renzhen, Wang, Quanziang, Wu, Yichen, Jia, Xixi, Meng, Deyu
Pseudo-labeling is a commonly used paradigm in semi-supervised learning, yet its application to semi-supervised regression (SSR) remains relatively under-explored. Unlike classification, where pseudo-labels are discrete and confidence-based filtering is effective, SSR involves continuous outputs with heteroscedastic noise, making it challenging to assess pseudo-label reliability. As a result, naive pseudo-labeling can lead to error accumulation and overfitting to incorrect labels. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware pseudo-labeling framework that dynamically adjusts pseudo-label influence from a bi-level optimization perspective. By jointly minimizing empirical risk over all data and optimizing uncertainty estimates to enhance generalization on labeled data, our method effectively mitigates the impact of unreliable pseudo-labels. We provide theoretical insights and extensive experiments to validate our approach across various benchmark SSR datasets, and the results demonstrate superior robustness and performance compared to existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/sxq/Heteroscedastic-Pseudo-Labels.
Recursive Inference for Heterogeneous Multi-Output GP State-Space Models with Arbitrary Moment Matching
Zheng, Tengjie, Mei, Jilan, Wu, Di, Cheng, Lin, Gong, Shengping
Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging traditional modeling methods. To enable online learning for these systems, this paper formulates the system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) and develops a recursive learning method. The main contributions are threefold. First, a heterogeneous multi-output kernel is designed, allowing each output dimension to adopt distinct kernel types, hyperparameters, and input variables, improving expressiveness in multi-dimensional dynamics learning. Second, an inducing-point management algorithm enhances computational efficiency through independent selection and pruning for each output dimension. Third, a unified recursive inference framework for GPSSMs is derived, supporting general moment matching approaches, including the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and assumed density filtering (ADF), enabling accurate learning under strong nonlinearity and significant noise. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method matches the accuracy of SOTA offline GPSSMs with only 1/100 of the runtime, and surpasses SOTA online GPSSMs by around 70% in accuracy under heavy noise while using only 1/20 of the runtime.
Reliable data clustering with Bayesian community detection
Neuman, Magnus, Smiljanić, Jelena, Rosvall, Martin
From neuroscience and genomics to systems biology and ecology, researchers rely on clustering similarity data to uncover modular structure. Yet widely used clustering methods, such as hierarchical clustering, k-means, and WGCNA, lack principled model selection, leaving them susceptible to noise. A common workaround sparsifies a correlation matrix representation to remove noise before clustering, but this extra step introduces arbitrary thresholds that can distort the structure and lead to unreliable results. To detect reliable clusters, we capitalize on recent advances in network science to unite sparsification and clustering with principled model selection. We test two Bayesian community detection methods, the Degree-Corrected Stochastic Block Model and the Regularized Map Equation, both grounded in the Minimum Description Length principle for model selection. In synthetic data, they outperform traditional approaches, detecting planted clusters under high-noise conditions and with fewer samples. Compared to WGCNA on gene co-expression data, the Regularized Map Equation identifies more robust and functionally coherent gene modules. Our results establish Bayesian community detection as a principled and noise-resistant framework for uncovering modular structure in high-dimensional data across fields.
Online Policy Learning via a Self-Normalized Maximal Inequality
Girard, Samuel, Bibaut, Aurélien, Zenati, Houssam
Adaptive experiments produce dependent data that break i.i.d. assumptions that underlie classical concentration bounds and invalidate standard learning guarantees. In this paper, we develop a self-normalized maximal inequality for martingale empirical processes. Building on this, we first propose an adaptive sample-variance penalization procedure which balances empirical loss and sample variance, valid for general dependent data. Next, this allows us to derive a new variance-regularized pessimistic off-policy learning objective, for which we establish excess-risk guarantees. Subsequently, we show that, when combined with sequential updates and under standard complexity and margin conditions, the resulting estimator achieves fast convergence rates in both parametric and nonparametric regimes, improving over the usual $1/\sqrt{n}$ baseline. We complement our theoretical findings with numerical simulations that illustrate the practical gains of our approach.
Data-driven Calibration Sample Selection and Forecast Combination in Electricity Price Forecasting: An Application of the ARHNN Method
Serafin, Tomasz, Nitka, Weronika
Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy implementation and low computational complexity. While their effectiveness has been repeatedly confirmed in prior scientific literature, the topic is still underexplored in the field of electricity price forecasting. In this research article we apply the Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method to three long-term time series describing the German, Spanish and New England electricity markets. We show that it outperforms popular literature benchmarks in terms of forecast accuracy by up to 10%. We also propose two simplified variants of the method, granting a vast decrease in computation time with only minor loss of prediction accuracy. Finally, we compare the forecasts' performance in a battery storage system trading case study. We find that using a forecast-driven strategy can achieve up to 80% of theoretical maximum profits while trading, demonstrating business value in practical applications.
Dynamic Recalibration in LiDAR SLAM: Integrating AI and Geometric Methods with Real-Time Feedback Using INAF Fusion
This paper presents a novel fusion technique for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), aimed at improving localization and 3D mapping using LiDAR sensor. Our approach centers on the Inferred Attention Fusion (INAF) module, which integrates AI with geometric odometry. Utilizing the KITTI dataset's LiDAR data, INAF dynamically adjusts attention weights based on environmental feedback, enhancing the system's adaptability and measurement accuracy. This method advances the precision of both localization and 3D mapping, demonstrating the potential of our fusion technique to enhance autonomous navigation systems in complex scenarios.
Loss-Complexity Landscape and Model Structure Functions
We develop a framework for dualizing the Kolmogorov structure function $h_x(α)$, which then allows using computable complexity proxies. We establish a mathematical analogy between information-theoretic constructs and statistical mechanics, introducing a suitable partition function and free energy functional. We explicitly prove the Legendre-Fenchel duality between the structure function and free energy, showing detailed balance of the Metropolis kernel, and interpret acceptance probabilities as information-theoretic scattering amplitudes. A susceptibility-like variance of model complexity is shown to peak precisely at loss-complexity trade-offs interpreted as phase transitions. Practical experiments with linear and tree-based regression models verify these theoretical predictions, explicitly demonstrating the interplay between the model complexity, generalization, and overfitting threshold.
FLEX: A Largescale Multimodal, Multiview Dataset for Learning Structured Representations for Fitness Action Quality Assessment
Yin, Hao, Gu, Lijun, Parmar, Paritosh, Xu, Lin, Guo, Tianxiao, Fu, Weiwei, Zhang, Yang, Zheng, Tianyou
Action Quality Assessment (AQA) -- the task of quantifying how well an action is performed -- has great potential for detecting errors in gym weight training, where accurate feedback is critical to prevent injuries and maximize gains. Existing AQA datasets, however, are limited to single-view competitive sports and RGB video, lacking multimodal signals and professional assessment of fitness actions. We introduce FLEX, the first large-scale, multimodal, multiview dataset for fitness AQA that incorporates surface electromyography (sEMG). FLEX contains over 7,500 multiview recordings of 20 weight-loaded exercises performed by 38 subjects of diverse skill levels, with synchronized RGB video, 3D pose, sEMG, and physiological signals. Expert annotations are organized into a Fitness Knowledge Graph (FKG) linking actions, key steps, error types, and feedback, supporting a compositional scoring function for interpretable quality assessment. FLEX enables multimodal fusion, cross-modal prediction -- including the novel Video$\rightarrow$EMG task -- and biomechanically oriented representation learning. Building on the FKG, we further introduce FLEX-VideoQA, a structured question-answering benchmark with hierarchical queries that drive cross-modal reasoning in vision-language models. Baseline experiments demonstrate that multimodal inputs, multiview video, and fine-grained annotations significantly enhance AQA performance. FLEX thus advances AQA toward richer multimodal settings and provides a foundation for AI-powered fitness assessment and coaching. Dataset and code are available at \href{https://github.com/HaoYin116/FLEX}{https://github.com/HaoYin116/FLEX}. Link to Project \href{https://haoyin116.github.io/FLEX_Dataset}{page}.