Bike-sharing models trained on historical station-hour data may degrade when deployed in later years because travel patterns change over time. This paper studies March Citi Bike demand prediction from 2021 to 2026 as a temporal domain adaptation problem and proposes Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework. The method fits a target-domain station-time anchor with a small labeled target subset, transfers residual rather than raw demand, applies a deterministic label-preserving residual feature generator, and trims high-cost transport matches before training the final residual predictor. Experiments compare Gen-ROTDA with anchor-only, source-only, target-only, fine-tuning, MMD adaptation, Sinkhorn OTDA, ROTDA, and Gen-OTDA. Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE on the main 2025 to 2026 task and is the best OT-family method on average across multi-year tasks, although fine-tuning and MMD adaptation remain strong overall baselines. Under abnormal target-unlabeled records, Gen-ROTDA is much more stable than non-robust OT variants, suggesting that robust transport is useful for noisy temporal transfer in bike-sharing demand prediction.

Individual fairness, the notion that "similar individuals should be treated similarly," provides a strong and flexible fairness guarantee for algorithmic decision makers. However, a barrier to implementing individual fairness in practice is the difficulty of learning the similarity metric over individuals. In this work, we present an algorithm for learning a Mahalanobis similarity metric from triplet queries of the form "is individual $i$ more similar to individual $j$ or $k$?" We work in the standard Bradley-Terry model for pairwise comparisons. Our algorithm consists of a spectral initialization step followed by gradient descent. We provide extensive theoretical guarantees on our algorithm, showing that it converges quickly to the ground truth metric despite the non-convexity of the loss in our model. Because our focus is on fairness, we also show that individual fairness with respect to an estimated metric is sufficient to achieve similar fairness with respect to the true metric. We also discuss potential applications of our work to AI model tuning. Finally, we present experimental results that demonstrate the convergence of our algorithm and the fairness performance of downstream fair predictors trained on our estimated metric.

In many prediction problems, we have extra information during training (for example, measurements that are expensive or slow to collect) that will not be available when the model is deployed. A common strategy is to first train a model that uses all training information, then use its predictions on unlabeled examples to train a second model that only uses the inputs available at test time. However, when the extra training-only information is weak or noisy, this Two-Stage approach can mislead the deployment model and even hurt accuracy. We propose a joint training method that learns the two models together, so the deployment model can benefit from the extra information only when it actually helps, instead of inheriting its mistakes. We provide guarantees that describe when joint training improves prediction accuracy and analyze a simple alternating training algorithm for large, high-dimensional models. Experiments on synthetic data and real-world prediction tasks show that our approach avoids these failures and robustly outperforms standard Two-Stage baselines.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) constitute a central modeling tool to enable principled reasoning about cause-effect interactions in complex systems. However, since the causal structure underlying a group of variables is often unknown and interventions may be infeasible or ethically challenging to implement, there is a need to address the task of inferring DAGs from observational data. However, most classical structure identification approaches face two key obstacles: the combinatorial challenge of enforcing acyclicity, which severely limits scalability, and identifiability challenges arising from latent confounding or heterogeneous noise. This tutorial offers an overview of recent signal processing and optimization advances that address these issues by recasting DAG structure learning as a continuous, score-based estimation problem over adjacency matrices. We begin with a didactic introduction to structural equation models and the formulation of causal graph recovery, followed by a historical survey of score-based methods ranging from early combinatorial search schemes and greedy heuristics to modern continuous frameworks that leverage smooth characterizations of acyclicity. Building on this foundation, we describe concomitant DAG estimation methods that jointly infer sparse causal structure and exogenous noise levels, improving robustness under heteroscedasticity and distribution shifts by rendering the estimator noise adaptive. All in all, the tutorial introduces readers to challenges and opportunities for signal processing research at the crossroads of causal inference, high-dimensional statistics, and scalable graph learning, while outlining emerging directions including online, nonlinear, and neural causal discovery.

We introduce a model for neural scaling laws under sparse activations. In the model, test loss is often dominated by rare coordinates that are never observed in the training input. This mechanism induces a novel bottleneck absent from dense models. We derive the asymptotic population loss in both the underparameterized and overparameterized regimes, and show that the loss exhibits a double-descent peak near the interpolation threshold -- where the number of parameters is just sufficient to fit the training data -- resulting in a loss curve governed by two distinct scaling exponents -- one for the overparameterized regime and one for the underparameterized regime -- with a gap determined by the degree of sparsity. Additionally, we derive a compute-optimal frontier that favors increasing dataset size over model capacity under fixed compute budgets. We also analyze gradient-descent dynamics and identify a scaling law for the probability that fixed-step gradient descent becomes unstable. We further show that the sparsity-induced effect persists under nonlinear activations.

We prove optimal sampling bounds achieving $(1\pm\varepsilon)$-relative error for a broad class of Lipschitz continuous classification loss functions under various regularization terms. This includes important functions such as logistic and sigmoid loss, hinge loss, and ReLU loss, as prominent and popular representative examples. In particular, we prove $k^2/\varepsilon^2$ upper and lower bounds for $\|\cdot\|_2/k$ regularization, and $k/\varepsilon^2$ upper and lower bounds for $\|\cdot\|_1/k$ regularization. For $\|\cdot\|_2^2/k$ regularization, the sampling complexity depends mainly on a bounded derivative property: if $|g'(x)|\leq g(x)$, and $g(0)>0$, and $g$ is monotonic or convex, then it admits linear in $k$ sampling complexity; otherwise the general bound is $k^2/\varepsilon^2$. However, if $g(0)=0$, our results indicate that no dimension-free bounds are possible, and even sublinear bounds are ruled out. All upper bounds are complemented by matching lower bounds up to polylogarithmic terms. Moreover, our work relies conceptually and algorithmically on simple uniform or (squared) norm sampling and hereby improves over recent cubic $k^3/\varepsilon^2$ sensitivity sampling bounds of (Alishahi and Phillips, ICML'24). This is achieved by refined arguments involving higher moment bounds and empirical process analyses to avoid overcounting that appears in the de-facto standard VC-dimension and sensitivity framework.

We consider the problem of sampling from an unnormalized Boltzmann/ Gibbs density, π(θ) exp V(θ),θ Θ Rd, where the normalization constant is unknown (and/or intractable) and only the potential function V (and typically its derivatives) can be evaluated. This problem arises across various domains in Bayesian inference, statistical physics, and modern machine learning. A common variational perspective on sampling is to characterize the target distribution π as the unique minimizer of a functional (typically a divergence functional) over the space of probability measures. From this viewpoint, sampling can be formulated as evolving an initial distribution ρ0 toward π via the gradient flow of this functional under a suitable geometric structure on the space of probability measures. In this paper, we focus on a gradient flow based sampling methodology built from the spherical Hellinger Kantorovich (SHK), also known as the Wasserstein Fisher Rao (WFR), geometry on the space of probability measures (Kondratyev and Vorotnikov, 2019; Liero et al., 2018; Chizat et al., 2015). When the variational objective is the exclusive KL divergence ρ 7 KL(ρ π), the SHK gradient flow generates a time-indexed family of marginals {ρt}t 0 (initialized at ρ0 P2(Θ)) that evolves according to the continuity reaction equation (4). This evolution is equivalent to the birth-death Langevin dynamics introduced in Lu et al. (2019) .

We study the evolution of hidden-weight spectra in wide neural networks trained by (stochastic) gradient descent. We develop a two-level dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) that jointly tracks bulk and outlier spectral dynamics for spiked ensembles whose spike directions remain statistically dependent on the random bulk. We apply this framework to two settings: (1) infinite-width nonlinear networks in mean-field/$μ$P scaling and (2) deep linear networks in the proportional high-dimensional limit, where width, input dimension, and sample size diverge with fixed ratios. Our theory predicts how outliers evolve with training time, width, output scale, and initialization variance. In deep linear networks, $μ$P yields width-consistent outlier dynamics and hyperparameter transfer, including width-stable growth of the leading NTK mode toward the edge of stability (EoS). In contrast, NTK parameterization exhibits strongly width-dependent outlier dynamics, despite converging to a stable large-width limit. We show that this bulk+outlier picture is descriptive of simple tasks with small output channels, but that tasks involving large numbers of outputs (ImageNet classification or GPT language modeling) are better described by a restructuring of the spectral bulk. We develop a toy model with extensive output channels that recapitulates this phenomenon and show that edge of the spectrum still converges for sufficiently wide networks.

This paper presents a PAC-Bayes framework for learning controllers for unknown stochastic linear discrete-time systems, where the system parameters are drawn from a fixed but unknown distribution. We derive a data-dependent high probability bound on the performance of any learned (stochastic) controller, and propose novel efficient learning algorithms with theoretical guarantees, which can be implemented for both finite and infinite controller spaces. Compared to prior work, our bound holds for unbounded quadratic cost. In the special case where LQG is optimal, our numerical results suggest that the learned controllers achieve comparable performance to LQG.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) approximate multivariate functions using learnable univariate edge functions, typically parameterized by B-spline bases. Although effective, spline-based implementations can be computationally expensive. A modified version of KANs, called FastKAN, improves efficiency by replacing splines with Gaussian radial basis functions (RBFs), but it relies on a fixed kernel and shape parameter. In this work, we extend the RBF-based KAN framework by introducing a broader family of radial basis kernels and by initializing the kernel shape parameter using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that integrates LOOCV-based kernel scale estimation with deep KAN training. We also introduce Matérn and Wendland kernels into the KAN framework for the first time, enabling more flexible basis representations beyond the Gaussian kernel used in FastKAN. The LOOCV estimate provides a data-driven initialization of the kernel scale, which is subsequently refined during network training. The proposed adaptive RBF-KAN is evaluated on several two-dimensional benchmark functions. The results highlight the importance of kernel selection and adaptive shape parameters, with different kernels showing advantages for smooth functions, discontinuities, and oscillatory patterns. Overall, combining LOOCV-based initialization with adaptive kernel learning provides a practical strategy for improving RBF-based KAN models.