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 Statistical Learning


MEET-Sepsis: Multi-Endogenous-View Enhanced Time-Series Representation Learning for Early Sepsis Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sepsis is a life-threatening infectious syndrome associated with high mortality in intensive care units (ICUs). Early and accurate sepsis prediction (SP) is critical for timely intervention, yet remains challenging due to subtle early manifestations and rapidly escalating mortality. While AI has improved SP efficiency, existing methods struggle to capture weak early temporal signals. This paper introduces a Multi-Endogenous-view Representation Enhancement (MERE) mechanism to construct enriched feature views, coupled with a Cascaded Dual-convolution Time-series Attention (CDTA) module for multi-scale temporal representation learning. The proposed MEET-Sepsis framework achieves competitive prediction accuracy using only 20% of the ICU monitoring time required by SOTA methods, significantly advancing early SP. Extensive validation confirms its efficacy.


Adversarial Graph Fusion for Incomplete Multi-view Semi-supervised Learning with Tensorial Imputation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

View missing remains a significant challenge in graph-based multi-view semi-supervised learning, hindering their real-world applications. To address this issue, traditional methods introduce a missing indicator matrix and focus on mining partial structure among existing samples in each view for label propagation (LP). However, we argue that these disregarded missing samples sometimes induce discontinuous local structures, i.e., sub-clusters, breaking the fundamental smoothness assumption in LP. Consequently, such a Sub-Cluster Problem (SCP) would distort graph fusion and degrade classification performance. To alleviate SCP, we propose a novel incomplete multi-view semi-supervised learning method, termed AGF-TI. Firstly, we design an adversarial graph fusion scheme to learn a robust consensus graph against the distorted local structure through a min-max framework. By stacking all similarity matrices into a tensor, we further recover the incomplete structure from the high-order consistency information based on the low-rank tensor learning. Additionally, the anchor-based strategy is incorporated to reduce the computational complexity. An efficient alternative optimization algorithm combining a reduced gradient descent method is developed to solve the formulated objective, with theoretical convergence. Extensive experimental results on various datasets validate the superiority of our proposed AGF-TI as compared to state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/ZhangqiJiang07/AGF_TI.


The Impact of Coreset Selection on Spurious Correlations and Group Robustness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Coreset selection methods have shown promise in reducing the training data size while maintaining model performance for data-efficient machine learning. However, as many datasets suffer from biases that cause models to learn spurious correlations instead of causal features, it is important to understand whether and how dataset reduction methods may perpetuate, amplify, or mitigate these biases. In this work, we conduct the first comprehensive analysis of the implications of data selection on the spurious bias levels of the selected coresets and the robustness of downstream models trained on them. We use an extensive experimental setting spanning ten different spurious correlations benchmarks, five score metrics to characterize sample importance/ difficulty, and five data selection policies across a broad range of coreset sizes. Thereby, we unravel a series of nontrivial nuances in interactions between sample difficulty and bias alignment, as well as dataset bias and resultant model robustness. For example, we find that selecting coresets using embedding-based sample characterization scores runs a comparatively lower risk of inadvertently exacerbating bias than selecting using characterizations based on learning dynamics. Most importantly, our analysis reveals that although some coreset selection methods could achieve lower bias levels by prioritizing difficult samples, they do not reliably guarantee downstream robustness.


Task Priors: Enhancing Model Evaluation by Considering the Entire Space of Downstream Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The grand goal of AI research, and particularly Self Supervised Learning (SSL), is to produce systems that can successfully solve any possible task. In contrast, current evaluation methods available to AI researchers typically rely on a fixed collection of hand-picked downstream benchmarks. Hence, a large amount of effort is put into designing and searching for large collection of evaluation tasks that can serve as a proxy of our grand goal. We argue that such a rigid evaluation protocol creates a silent bottleneck in AI research. To remedy that, we define a probabilistic space of downstream tasks obtained by adopting a distribution of tasks and by defining Task Priors. Under this view, one can evaluate a model's performance over the set of all possible downstream tasks. Our framework is the first to provide answers to key questions such as (i) what is the average performance of my model over all possible downstream tasks weighted by the probability to encounter each task? or (ii) what is the variance of my model's performance across all downstream tasks under the defined Task Priors? Beyond establishing a new standard for evaluation, we believe that Task Priors will accelerate the pace of research in SSL - where downstream task evaluation is the sole qualitative signal that researchers have access to.


Understanding In-Context Learning on Structured Manifolds: Bridging Attention to Kernel Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While in-context learning (ICL) has achieved remarkable success in natural language and vision domains, its theoretical understanding-particularly in the context of structured geometric data-remains unexplored. This paper initiates a theoretical study of ICL for regression of Hรถlder functions on manifolds. We establish a novel connection between the attention mechanism and classical kernel methods, demonstrating that transformers effectively perform kernel-based prediction at a new query through its interaction with the prompt. This connection is validated by numerical experiments, revealing that the learned query-prompt scores for Hรถlder functions are highly correlated with the Gaussian kernel. Building on this insight, we derive generalization error bounds in terms of the prompt length and the number of training tasks. When a sufficient number of training tasks are observed, transformers give rise to the minimax regression rate of Hรถlder functions on manifolds, which scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimension of the manifold, rather than the ambient space dimension. Our result also characterizes how the generalization error scales with the number of training tasks, shedding light on the complexity of transformers as in-context kernel algorithm learners. Our findings provide foundational insights into the role of geometry in ICL and novels tools to study ICL of nonlinear models.


Enhancing Fractional Gradient Descent with Learned Optimizers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fractional Gradient Descent (FGD) offers a novel and promising way to accelerate optimization by incorporating fractional calculus into machine learning. Although FGD has shown encouraging initial results across various optimization tasks, it faces significant challenges with convergence behavior and hyperparameter selection. Moreover, the impact of its hyperparameters is not fully understood, and scheduling them is particularly difficult in non-convex settings such as neural network training. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach called Learning to Optimize Caputo Fractional Gradient Descent (L2O-CFGD), which meta-learns how to dynamically tune the hyperparameters of Caputo FGD (CFGD). Our method's meta-learned schedule outperforms CFGD with static hyperparameters found through an extensive search and, in some tasks, achieves performance comparable to a fully black-box meta-learned optimizer. L2O-CFGD can thus serve as a powerful tool for researchers to identify high-performing hyperparameters and gain insights on how to leverage the history-dependence of the fractional differential in optimization.


Inference on Local Variable Importance Measures for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We provide an inferential framework to assess variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects. This assessment is especially useful in high-risk domains such as medicine, where decision makers hesitate to rely on black-box treatment recommendation algorithms. The variable importance measures we consider are local in that they may differ across individuals, while the inference is global in that it tests whether a given variable is important for any individual. Our approach builds on recent developments in semiparametric theory for function-valued parameters, and is valid even when statistical machine learning algorithms are employed to quantify treatment effect heterogeneity. We demonstrate the applicability of our method to infectious disease prevention strategies.


Protein generation with embedding learning for motif diversification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A fundamental challenge in protein design is the trade-off between generating structural diversity while preserving motif biological function. Current state-of-the-art methods, such as partial diffusion in RFdiffusion, often fail to resolve this trade-off: small perturbations yield motifs nearly identical to the native structure, whereas larger perturbations violate the geometric constraints necessary for biological function. We introduce Protein Generation with Embedding Learning (PGEL), a general framework that learns high-dimensional embeddings encoding sequence and structural features of a target motif in the representation space of a diffusion model's frozen denoiser, and then enhances motif diversity by introducing controlled perturbations in the embedding space. PGEL is thus able to loosen geometric constraints while satisfying typical design metrics, leading to more diverse yet viable structures. We demonstrate PGEL on three representative cases: a monomer, a protein-protein interface, and a cancer-related transcription factor complex. In all cases, PGEL achieves greater structural diversity, better designability, and improved self-consistency, as compared to partial diffusion. Our results establish PGEL as a general strategy for embedding-driven protein generation allowing for systematic, viable diversification of functional motifs.


Interval Prediction of Annual Average Daily Traffic on Local Roads via Quantile Random Forest with High-Dimensional Spatial Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate annual average daily traffic (AADT) data are vital for transport planning and infrastructure management. However, automatic traffic detectors across national road networks often provide incomplete coverage, leading to underrepresentation of minor roads. While recent machine learning advances have improved AADT estimation at unmeasured locations, most models produce only point predictions and overlook estimation uncertainty. This study addresses that gap by introducing an interval prediction approach that explicitly quantifies predictive uncertainty. We integrate a Quantile Random Forest model with Principal Component Analysis to generate AADT prediction intervals, providing plausible traffic ranges bounded by estimated minima and maxima. Using data from over 2,000 minor roads in England and Wales, and evaluated with specialized interval metrics, the proposed method achieves an interval coverage probability of 88.22%, a normalized average width of 0.23, and a Winkler Score of 7,468.47. By combining machine learning with spatial and high-dimensional analysis, this framework enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of AADT estimation, supporting more robust and informed transport planning.


Learning under Quantization for High-Dimensional Linear Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The use of low-bit quantization has emerged as an indispensable technique for enabling the efficient training of large-scale models. Despite its widespread empirical success, a rigorous theoretical understanding of its impact on learning performance remains notably absent, even in the simplest linear regression setting. We present the first systematic theoretical study of this fundamental question, analyzing finite-step stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for high-dimensional linear regression under a comprehensive range of quantization targets: data, labels, parameters, activations, and gradients. Our novel analytical framework establishes precise algorithm-dependent and data-dependent excess risk bounds that characterize how different quantization affects learning: parameter, activation, and gradient quantization amplify noise during training; data quantization distorts the data spectrum; and data and label quantization introduce additional approximation and quantized error. Crucially, we prove that for multiplicative quantization (with input-dependent quantization step), this spectral distortion can be eliminated, and for additive quantization (with constant quantization step), a beneficial scaling effect with batch size emerges. Furthermore, for common polynomial-decay data spectra, we quantitatively compare the risks of multiplicative and additive quantization, drawing a parallel to the comparison between FP and integer quantization methods. Our theory provides a powerful lens to characterize how quantization shapes the learning dynamics of optimization algorithms, paving the way to further explore learning theory under practical hardware constraints.