Statistical Learning
Self-Evidencing Through Hierarchical Gradient Decomposition: A Dissipative System That Maintains Non-Equilibrium Steady-State by Minimizing Variational Free Energy
The Free Energy Principle (FEP) states that self-organizing systems must minimize variational free energy to persist (Friston, 2010, 2019), but the path from principle to implementable algorithm has remained unclear. We present a constructive proof that the FEP can be realized through exact local credit assignment. The system decomposes gradient computation hierarchically: spatial credit via feedback alignment, temporal credit via eligibility traces, and structural credit via a Trophic Field Map (TFM) that estimates expected gradient magnitude for each connection block. We prove these mechanisms are exact at their respective levels and validate the central claim empirically: the TFM achieves 0.9693 Pearson correlation with oracle gradients. This exactness produces emergent capabilities including 98.6% retention after task interference, autonomous recovery from 75% structural damage, self-organized criticality (spectral radius ฯ 1.0), and sample-efficient reinforcement learning on continuous control tasks without replay buffers. The architecture unifies Pri-gogine's dissipative structures (Prigogine, 1977), Fris-ton's free energy minimization (Friston, 2010), and Hopfield's attractor dynamics (Hopfield, 1982; Amit et al., 1985a,b), demonstrating that exact hierarchical inference over network topology can be implemented with local, biologically plausible rules.
Uncertainty-Aware Post-Hoc Calibration: Mitigating Confidently Incorrect Predictions Beyond Calibration Metrics
Gharoun, Hassan, Khorshidi, Mohammad Sadegh, Ranjbarigderi, Kasra, Chen, Fang, Gandomi, Amir H.
Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the relationship between improved calibration and effective uncertainty-aware decision-making remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a post-hoc calibration framework that leverages prediction reliability assessment to jointly enhance calibration quality and uncertainty-aware decision-making. The framework employs proximity-based conformal prediction to stratify calibration samples into putatively correct and putatively incorrect groups based on semantic similarity in feature space. A dual calibration strategy is then applied: standard isotonic regression calibrated confidence in putatively correct predictions, while underconfidence-regularized isotonic regression reduces confidence toward uniform distributions for putatively incorrect predictions, facilitating their identification for further investigations. A comprehensive evaluation is conducted using calibration metrics, uncertainty-aware performance measures, and empirical conformal coverage. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with BiT and CoAtNet backbones show that the proposed method achieves lower confidently incorrect predictions, and competitive Expected Calibration Error compared with isotonic and focal-loss baselines. This work bridges calibration and uncertainty quantification through instance-level adaptivity, offering a practical post-hoc solution that requires no model retraining while improving both probability alignment and uncertainty-aware decision-making.
NeuCo-Bench: A Novel Benchmark Framework for Neural Embeddings in Earth Observation
Vinge, Rikard, Wittmann, Isabelle, Schneider, Jannik, Marszalek, Michael, Gilch, Luis, Brunschwiler, Thomas, Albrecht, Conrad M
We introduce NeuCo-Bench, a novel benchmark framework for evaluating (lossy) neural compression and representation learning in the context of Earth Observation (EO). Our approach builds on fixed-size embeddings that act as compact, task-agnostic representations applicable to a broad range of downstream tasks. NeuCo-Bench comprises three core components: (i) an evaluation pipeline built around reusable embeddings, (ii) a new challenge mode with a hidden-task leaderboard designed to mitigate pretraining bias, and (iii) a scoring system that balances accuracy and stability. To support reproducibility, we release SSL4EO-S12-downstream, a curated multispectral, multitemporal EO dataset. We present initial results from a public challenge at the 2025 CVPR EARTHVISION workshop and conduct ablations with state-of-the-art foundation models. NeuCo-Bench provides a first step towards community-driven, standardized evaluation of neural embeddings for EO and beyond.
The Sherpa.ai Blind Vertical Federated Learning Paradigm to Minimize the Number of Communications
Acero, Alex, Jimenez-Gutierrez, Daniel M., Pighin, Dario, Zuazua, Enrique, Del Rio, Joaquin, Uribe-Etxebarria, Xabi
Blind V ertical Federated Learning Paradigm to Minimize the Number of Communications Sherpa.ai Abstract--Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative decentralized training across multiple parties (nodes) while keeping raw data private. There are two main paradigms in FL: Horizontal FL (HFL), where all participant nodes share the same feature space but hold different samples, and V ertical FL (VFL), where participants hold complementary features for the same samples. While HFL is widely adopted, VFL is employed in domains where nodes hold complementary features about the same samples. Still, VFL presents a significant limitation: the vast number of communications required during training. This compromises privacy and security, and can lead to high energy consumption, and in some cases, make model training unfeasible due to the high number of communications. In this paper, we introduce Sherpa.ai Blind V ertical Federated Learning (SBVFL), a novel paradigm that leverages a distributed training mechanism enhanced for privacy and security. De-coupling the vast majority of node updates from the server dramatically reduces node-server communication. Experiments show that SBVFL reduces communication by 99% compared to standard VFL while maintaining accuracy and robustness. Therefore, SBVFL enables practical, privacy-preserving VFL across sensitive domains, including healthcare, finance, manufacturing, aerospace, cybersecurity, and the defense industry. Federated Learning (FL) [1] enables collaborative training across multiple nodes (parties, clients, devices) while keeping raw data decentralized, sharing only model updates instead of centralizing data as in traditional Machine Learning (ML). FL is typically categorized into Horizontal FL (HFL), where nodes share the same feature space but hold different samples, and V ertical FL (VFL), where nodes hold data with different feature spaces for the same set of samples [2].
CARLE: A Hybrid Deep-Shallow Learning Framework for Robust and Explainable RUL Estimation of Rolling Element Bearings
Prognostic Health Management (PHM) systems monitor and predict equipment health. A key task is Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation, which predicts how long a component, such as a rolling element bearing, will operate before failure. Many RUL methods exist but often lack generalizability and robustness under changing operating conditions. This paper introduces CARLE, a hybrid AI framework that combines deep and shallow learning to address these challenges. CARLE uses Res-CNN and Res-LSTM blocks with multi-head attention and residual connections to capture spatial and temporal degradation patterns, and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR) for stable, accurate RUL prediction. A compact preprocessing pipeline applies Gaussian filtering for noise reduction and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) for time-frequency feature extraction. We evaluate CARLE on the XJTU-SY and PRONOSTIA bearing datasets. Ablation studies measure each component's contribution, while noise and cross-domain experiments test robustness and generalization. Comparative results show CARLE outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, especially under dynamic conditions. Finally, we analyze model interpretability with LIME and SHAP to assess transparency and trustworthiness.
Synthetic EEG Generation using Diffusion Models for Motor Imagery Tasks
Alexandre, Henrique de Lima, Lima, Clodoaldo Aparecido de Moraes
Electroencephalography (EEG) is a widely used, non-invasive method for capturing brain activity, and is particularly relevant for applications in Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI). However, collecting high-quality EEG data remains a major challenge due to sensor costs, acquisition time, and inter-subject variability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a methodology for generating synthetic EEG signals associated with motor imagery brain tasks using Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). The approach involves preprocessing real EEG data, training a diffusion model to reconstruct EEG channels from noise, and evaluating the quality of the generated signals through both signal-level and task-level metrics. For validation, we employed classifiers such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and U-Net to compare the performance of synthetic data against real data in classification tasks. The generated data achieved classification accuracies above 95%, with low mean squared error and high correlation with real signals. Our results demonstrate that synthetic EEG signals produced by diffusion models can effectively complement datasets, improving classification performance in EEG-based BCIs and addressing data scarcity.
A Biophysical-Model-Informed Source Separation Framework For EMG Decomposition
Halatsis, D., Mamidanna, P., Pereira, J., Farina, D.
Recent advances in neural interfacing have enabled significant improvements in human-computer interaction, rehabilitation, and neuromuscular diagnostics. Motor unit (MU) decomposition from surface electromyography (sEMG) is a key technique for extracting neural drive information, but traditional blind source separation (BSS) methods fail to incorporate biophysical constraints, limiting their accuracy and interpretability. In this work, we introduce a novel Biophysical-Model-Informed Source Separation (BMISS) framework, which integrates anatomically accurate forward EMG models into the decomposition process. By leveraging MRI-based anatomical reconstructions and generative modeling, our approach enables direct inversion of a biophysically accurate forward model to estimate both neural drive and motor neuron properties in an unsupervised manner. Empirical validation in a controlled simulated setting demonstrates that BMISS achieves higher fidelity motor unit estimation while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional methods. This framework paves the way for non-invasive, personalized neuromuscular assessments, with potential applications in clinical diagnostics, prosthetic control, and neurorehabilitation.
Exploring Complexity Changes in Diseased ECG Signals for Enhanced Classification
Quintero, Camilo Quiceno, George, Sandip Varkey
The complex dynamics of the heart are reflected in its electrical activity, captured through electrocardiograms (ECGs). In this study we use nonlinear time series analysis to understand how ECG complexity varies with cardiac pathology. Using the large PTB-XL dataset, we extracted nonlinear measures from lead II ECGs, and cross-channel metrics (leads II, V2, A VL) using Spearman correlations and mutual information. Significant differences between diseased and healthy individuals were found in almost all measures between healthy and diseased classes, and between 5 diagnostic superclasses (p < .001). Moreover, incorporating these complexity quantifiers into machine learning models substantially improved classification accuracy measured using area under the ROC curve (AUC) from 0.86 (baseline) to 0.87 (nonlinear measures) and 0.90 (including cross-time series metrics).
In-Process Monitoring of Gear Power Honing Using Vibration Signal Analysis and Machine Learning
Capurso, Massimo, Afferrante, Luciano
In modern gear manufacturing, stringent Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) requirements demand high-precision finishing operations such as power honing. Conventional quality control strategies rely on post-process inspections and Statistical Process Control (SPC), which fail to capture transient machining anomalies and cannot ensure real-time defect detection. This study proposes a novel, data-driven framework for in-process monitoring of gear power honing using vibration signal analysis and machine learning. Our proposed methodology involves continuous data acquisition via accelerometers, followed by time-frequency signal analysis. We investigate and compare the efficacy of three subspace learning methods for features extraction: (1) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction; (2) a two-stage framework combining PCA with Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) for enhanced class separation; and (3) Uncorrelated Multilinear Discriminant Analysis with Regularization (R-UMLDA), adapted for tensor data, which enforces feature decorrelation and includes regularization for small sample sizes. These extracted features are then fed into a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to predict four distinct gear quality categories, established through rigorous geometrical inspections and test bench results of assembled gearboxes. The models are trained and validated on an experimental dataset collected in an industrial context during gear power-honing operations, with gears classified into four different quality categories. The proposed framework achieves high classification accuracy (up to 100%) in an industrial setting. The approach offers interpretable spectral features that correlate with process dynamics, enabling practical integration into real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance systems.
Uncertain Knowledge Graph Completion via Semi-Supervised Confidence Distribution Learning
Wu, Tianxing, Zhu, Shutong, Wang, Jingting, Xu, Ning, Qi, Guilin, Wang, Haofen
Uncertain knowledge graphs (UKGs) associate each triple with a confidence score to provide more precise knowledge representations. Recently, since real-world UKGs suffer from the incompleteness, uncertain knowledge graph (UKG) completion attracts more attention, aiming to complete missing triples and confidences. Current studies attempt to learn UKG embeddings to solve this problem, but they neglect the extremely imbalanced distributions of triple confidences. This causes that the learnt embeddings are insufficient to high-quality UKG completion. Thus, in this paper, to address the above issue, we propose a new semi-supervised Confidence Distribution Learning (ssCDL) method for UKG completion, where each triple confidence is transformed into a confidence distribution to introduce more supervision information of different confidences to reinforce the embedding learning process. ssCDL iteratively learns UKG embedding by relational learning on labeled data (i.e., existing triples with confidences) and unlabeled data with pseudo labels (i.e., unseen triples with the generated confidences), which are predicted by meta-learning to augment the training data and rebalance the distribution of triple confidences. Experiments on two UKG datasets demonstrate that ssCDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in different evaluation metrics.