We revisit the classical problem of estimating an unknown distribution from its samples by fitting a mixture model that minimizes cross-entropy loss. Framing the task as a stochastic convex optimization problem over the space of $ M $-component mixture distributions, we propose a family of estimators derived from the stochastic mirror descent (SMD) algorithm. This optimization-based approach provides a principled and flexible framework that generalizes traditional estimators and proposes a variety of novel estimators through the choice of Bregman divergences. A key advantage of our method is that it scales efficiently with the number of candidate components $ f_i $; that is, one can employ a large set of basis distributions in the mixture model without incurring significant computational overhead. This enables richer approximations and improved estimation accuracy. Moreover, in the case of categorical distribution (discrete outcomes) our estimators do not require a strict lower bound, in other words our framework does not require the precise knowledge of the support of the distribution. We demonstrate that, under mild conditions, the proposed $ φ$-SMD estimators achieve near-optimal convergence rates in both Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and $ \ell_2 $-norm and offer practical benefits when computation is expensive. Our numerical analysis highlights improved performance guaranties over classical estimators, particularly in terms of sample efficiency and scalability.

In this paper, we study the numerical discretization of stochastic differential equations with locally Lipschitz, super-linearly growing drift, and the resulting implications for sampling from non-log-concave distributions satisfying a logarithmic Sobolev inequality. In this regime, the classical Euler--Maruyama scheme underlying the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) is known to be unstable. We analyze the KL-accelerated tamed unadjusted Langevin algorithm (kTULA) and introduce a new tamed randomized midpoint scheme, termed tRLMC. Building on the shifted-composition approach of \cite{chewi2024local}, we develop two new local-error frameworks that yield finite-time, non-asymptotic error estimates against the underlying SDE -- in KL divergence for kTULA, and in total variation for tRLMC -- valid for general locally Lipschitz drift. Specializing these frameworks to the sampling problem under a logarithmic Sobolev inequality, we obtain a near-optimal $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-1/2})$ iteration complexity for kTULA in KL divergence, with corresponding guarantees in total variation and Wasserstein distance. We further establish, for the first time, a non-asymptotic guarantee in total variation for a tamed randomized Langevin scheme under super-linear drift growth, together with the corresponding Wasserstein-distance bound, both with $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ complexity for tRLMC. As a consequence, both schemes yield non-asymptotic bounds for a non-convex excess-risk optimization problem.

Integrating multimodal datasets in clinical oncology is frequently hindered by high dimensionality and blockwise missingness, where entire data sources are unavailable for specific patient subsets. Standard survival models often struggle with these gaps, leading to biased results or patient exclusion. We introduce Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values (MSB), a late-fusion framework for survival analysis that independently models modality-specific features before aggregating predictions via a cross-validated stacking meta-learner. MSB was validated on the PIONeeR study (n=443 patients, 378 biomarkers across eight heterogeneous sources) to predict progression-free survival in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. MSB yielded higher predictive performance (C-index) than baseline algorithms. Improvements varied by baseline strength: linear models showed a 15.9% increase (p<0.001 for the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), random survival forests gained 5.4% (p=0.002), and gradient boosting methods improved by 2.1% (p=0.030). Beyond discrimination, MSB reduced the generalization gap (train-test difference in 5 folds cross-validation repeated 3 times: 0.055 vs 0.380 for linear models). Permutation importance analysis identified routine laboratory markers, clinical features, and PD-L1 expression as primary predictive drivers. Missing block indicators showed negligible importance, suggesting the model learned from biomarker values rather than data availability patterns. MSB provides a statistically validated framework for multimodal survival prediction with blockwise missingness. By enabling systematic biomarker evaluation without requiring complete data, MSB offers a practical tool for predictive modeling in biomedical research, pending external validation. Implementation is available at https://github.com/MohamedBoussena/MSB under Inria license.

Kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) is among the most popular goodness-of-fit (GoF) measures on general domains with a large number of successful deployments. One of the main applications of KSD is in constructing powerful GoF tests. However, tests relying on the classical U-/V-statistic-based KSD estimators have two major drawbacks. (i) Their runtime scales quadratically in the number of samples. (ii) Their asymptotic null distribution is computationally intractable in most cases, typically handled by bootstrapping. While it is known that the Nyström method permits accelerating KSD estimation with no loss of statistical accuracy under mild conditions, to the best of our knowledge, the fundamental question of its impact on bootstrap-based GoF testing is open; resolving this question is the focus of the current paper. In particular, we prove that the key properties of the quadratic-time bootstrapped KSD-based GoF test (asymptotic level and local consistency) are preserved by its Nyström acceleration. We numerically demonstrate the efficiency of the accelerated KSD estimator and bootstrap in the context of GoF testing of spherical and functional data. Our numerical results show that the Nyström-accelerated method performs statistically on-par with the quadratic-time approach, while requiring substantially smaller runtime.

The boosted Frank-Wolfe algorithm accelerates the classical Frank-Wolfe algorithm by better aligning the update direction with the negative gradient. Its analysis, however, has been limited to deterministic convex problems, with step sizes that require either line search or knowledge of the Lipschitz constant of the gradient. We develop a novel step size strategy that does not depend on the Lipschitz constant of the gradient, which allows us to extend the boosted Frank-Wolfe algorithm to the stochastic setting. We prove that boosting with this step size strategy can be combined with many modern gradient estimators, including SAGA, L-SVRG, SAG, Heavy Ball momentum, and zeroth-order estimators, among others, while retaining the worst-case convergence rates of ordinary stochastic Frank-Wolfe. Our analysis also yields the first convergence rates for boosted Frank-Wolfe on nonconvex and quasar-convex objectives, results which are new even for deterministic problems. Experiments on sparse logistic regression and quantum process tomography show that stochastic boosted Frank-Wolfe achieves faster convergence per gradient oracle call (and on wall-clock) compared to the non-boosted baseline.

We consider graph diffusion processes constructed from finite i.i.d. samples drawn from an unknown manifold embedded in ambient Euclidean space, where the graph affinity is defined by an ambient Gaussian kernel matrix. We show that the manifold heat semigroup $Q_t = e^{tΔ}$ can be approximated directly by iterating the graph transition matrix $P$, under only low regularity assumptions on the test function $f$, including the case $f \in L^\infty$. We bound $\| P^n f - Q_t f \|$ in $\infty$-norm, with the operator application to $f$ properly defined, and we recover the classical graph-Laplacian pointwise rate $O(N^{-2/(d+6)})$ up to logarithmic factors, for diffusion times $t $ up to $O(1)$ and longer. The rate holds for in-sample error as well as out-of-sample generalization, where the estimator of $Q_t f$ at a new point is defined via kernel convolution. To handle non-uniform sampling densities on the manifold, we introduce a right-normalization of the graph transition matrix; under the assumption that the sampling density $p$ is $C^3$ and bounded away from zero, the same convergence rates hold. We numerically demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimator on simulated data.

Removing noise is difficult, but adding noise is easy. In this work, we show how to eliminate mean-shift noisy components from PCA by deliberately introducing knockoff mean-shift perturbation. Standard PCA is highly sensitive to shifts in the sample mean: a small fraction of samples from a shifted distribution can cause large deviations in the leading principal components. In high-dimensional regimes, existing Robust PCA approaches cannot handle the mean-shift contamination structure inherent in the mixture model. Using tools from Random Matrix Theory, we prove that the mean-shift spikes are spectrally separable from the stable eigenvalues of the original covariance. Furthermore, the original eigenspace remains asymptotically invariant to the contamination, independent of the mixture weight. Exploiting this spectral stability, we propose a simple, two-stage PCA algorithm by adding knockoff mean that identifies and removes the mean-shift component using only standard PCA operations.

We prove that no reinforcement learning policy with confidence-gated autonomy can simultaneously achieve maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy under rational oversight, whenever some tasks exceed the agent's reliable competence: the Behavioral Credibility Trilemma. The impossibility is geometric -- adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness, so an agent rewarded for both calibrated confidence and autonomous action systematically inflates its reported confidence on tasks below the principal's approval threshold. The Behavioral Perturbation Lemma quantifies the inflation (scaling as $w_A/(2 w_C)$ for the Brier score) and shows detection requires $Ω(1/Δ^2)$ observations. We prove the principal's optimal oversight rule is necessarily non-affine, making the impossibility unconditional and optimizer-independent across log-concave-density policy families. We formalize the Confidence-Gated Decision Problem, map existing methods onto the trilemma, and identify two constructive resolution pathways (commitment, domain separation). A 540-configuration Best-of-N experiment tests five pre-registered hypotheses, all strongly confirmed (effect sizes $d = 1.10$ to $5.32$), and adds a descriptive analysis of the achievable-$(H, C, A)$ surface geometry showing a plateau-truncated frontier consistent with the predicted inflation saturation.

Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $ρ$ and Kendall $τ$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .

Benchmarks increasingly guide deployment, procurement and scientific screening, yet a score supports only the response it records, not necessarily the deployment action. We introduce deployment-complete benchmarking, which tests whether benchmark evidence determines a deployment action. A benchmark is complete for a claim exactly when the action is constant on each evidence fiber; mixed fibers expose missing deployment information, and completion curves quantify the evidence required to resolve ambiguity. In controlled response spaces, benchmark-channel conformal coverage of 94.98% transferred poorly to an unmeasured deployment channel (10.07%), whereas response-rank intervals achieved 94.91% coverage; even zero benchmark error certified only 45.4% of candidates at the largest residual size. Public audits revealed incompleteness, including 97.9% mixed Tox21 fibers and zero median certifiable fraction in main Matbench and JARVIS audits. In held-out replays, certify-then-acquire reduced false decisions from 1.19% to 0.027% in Tox21 and from 20.3% to 0.128% in JARVIS, while changing model choice and identifying deployment-relevant probes. Deployment-ready benchmarks should report evidence, supported actions, ambiguity and completion cost rather than scores alone.