Statistical Learning
Convergence Analysis of SGD under Expected Smoothness
Kawamoto, Yuta, Iiduka, Hideaki
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the workhorse of large-scale learning, yet classical analyses rely on assumptions that can be either too strong (bounded variance) or too coarse (uniform noise). The expected smoothness (ES) condition has emerged as a flexible alternative that ties the second moment of stochastic gradients to the objective value and the full gradient. This paper presents a self-contained convergence analysis of SGD under ES. We (i) refine ES with interpretations and sampling-dependent constants; (ii) derive bounds of the expectation of squared full gradient norm; and (iii) prove $O(1/K)$ rates with explicit residual errors for various step-size schedules. All proofs are given in full detail in the appendix. Our treatment unifies and extends recent threads (Khaled and Richtรกrik, 2020; Umeda and Iiduka, 2025).
ShapeX: Shapelet-Driven Post Hoc Explanations for Time Series Classification Models
Huang, Bosong, Jin, Ming, Liang, Yuxuan, Barthelemy, Johan, Cheng, Debo, Wen, Qingsong, Liu, Chenghao, Pan, Shirui
Explaining time series classification models is crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where transparency and trust play a critical role. Although numerous time series classification methods have identified key subsequences, known as shapelets, as core features for achieving state-of-the-art performance and validating their pivotal role in classification outcomes, existing post-hoc time series explanation (PHTSE) methods primarily focus on timestep-level feature attribution. These explanation methods overlook the fundamental prior that classification outcomes are predominantly driven by key shapelets. To bridge this gap, we present ShapeX, an innovative framework that segments time series into meaningful shapelet-driven segments and employs Shapley values to assess their saliency. At the core of ShapeX lies the Shapelet Describe-and-Detect (SDD) framework, which effectively learns a diverse set of shapelets essential for classification. We further demonstrate that ShapeX produces explanations which reveal causal relationships instead of just correlations, owing to the atomicity properties of shapelets. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ShapeX outperforms existing methods in identifying the most relevant subsequences, enhancing both the precision and causal fidelity of time series explanations.
GOOD: Training-Free Guided Diffusion Sampling for Out-of-Distribution Detection
Gao, Xin, Liu, Jiyao, Li, Guanghao, Lyu, Yueming, Gao, Jianxiong, Yu, Weichen, Xu, Ningsheng, Wang, Liang, Shan, Caifeng, Liu, Ziwei, Si, Chenyang
Recent advancements have explored text-to-image diffusion models for synthesizing out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, substantially enhancing the performance of OOD detection. However, existing approaches typically rely on perturbing text-conditioned embeddings, resulting in semantic instability and insufficient shift diversity, which limit generalization to realistic OOD. To address these challenges, we propose GOOD, a novel and flexible framework that directly guides diffusion sampling trajectories towards OOD regions using off-the-shelf in-distribution (ID) classifiers. GOOD incorporates dual-level guidance: (1) Image-level guidance based on the gradient of log partition to reduce input likelihood, drives samples toward low-density regions in pixel space. (2) Feature-level guidance, derived from k-NN distance in the classifier's latent space, promotes sampling in feature-sparse regions. Hence, this dual-guidance design enables more controllable and diverse OOD sample generation. Additionally, we introduce a unified OOD score that adaptively combines image and feature discrepancies, enhancing detection robustness. We perform thorough quantitative and qualitative analyses to evaluate the effectiveness of GOOD, demonstrating that training with samples generated by GOOD can notably enhance OOD detection performance.
Operationalising Extended Cognition: Formal Metrics for Corporate Knowledge and Legal Accountability
Corporate responsibility turns on notions of corporate \textit{mens rea}, traditionally imputed from human agents. Yet these assumptions are under challenge as generative AI increasingly mediates enterprise decision-making. Building on the theory of extended cognition, we argue that in response corporate knowledge may be redefined as a dynamic capability, measurable by the efficiency of its information-access procedures and the validated reliability of their outputs. We develop a formal model that captures epistemic states of corporations deploying sophisticated AI or information systems, introducing a continuous organisational knowledge metric $S_S(ฯ)$ which integrates a pipeline's computational cost and its statistically validated error rate. We derive a thresholded knowledge predicate $\mathsf{K}_S$ to impute knowledge and a firm-wide epistemic capacity index $\mathcal{K}_{S,t}$ to measure overall capability. We then operationally map these quantitative metrics onto the legal standards of actual knowledge, constructive knowledge, wilful blindness, and recklessness. Our work provides a pathway towards creating measurable and justiciable audit artefacts, that render the corporate mind tractable and accountable in the algorithmic age.
Leveraging Code Cohesion Analysis to Identify Source Code Supply Chain Attacks
Reuben, Maor, Mendel, Ido, Feldman, Or, Kravchik, Moshe, Guri, Mordehai, Puzis, Rami
Supply chain attacks significantly threaten software security with malicious code injections within legitimate projects. Such attacks are very rare but may have a devastating impact. Detecting spurious code injections using automated tools is further complicated as it often requires deciphering the intention of both the inserted code and its context. In this study, we propose an unsupervised approach for highlighting spurious code injections by quantifying cohesion disruptions in the source code. Using a name-prediction-based cohesion (NPC) metric, we analyze how function cohesion changes when malicious code is introduced compared to natural cohesion fluctuations. An analysis of 54,707 functions over 369 open-source C++ repositories reveals that code injection reduces cohesion and shifts naming patterns toward shorter, less descriptive names compared to genuine function updates. Considering the sporadic nature of real supply-chain attacks, we evaluate the proposed method with extreme test-set imbalance and show that monitoring high-cohesion functions with NPC can effectively detect functions with injected code, achieving a Precision@100 of 36.41% at a 1:1,000 ratio and 12.47% at 1:10,000. These results suggest that automated cohesion measurements, in general, and name-prediction-based cohesion, in particular, may help identify supply chain attacks, improving source code integrity.
IKNet: Interpretable Stock Price Prediction via Keyword-Guided Integration of News and Technical Indicators
The increasing influence of unstructured external information, such as news articles, on stock prices has attracted growing attention in financial markets. Despite recent advances, most existing newsbased forecasting models represent all articles using sentiment scores or average embeddings that capture the general tone but fail to provide quantitative, context-aware explanations of the impacts of public sentiment on predictions. To address this limitation, we propose an interpretable keyword-guided network (IKNet), which is an explainable forecasting framework that models the semantic association between individual news keywords and stock price movements. The IKNet identifies salient keywords via FinBERTbased contextual analysis, processes each embedding through a separate nonlinear projection layer, and integrates their representations with the time-series data of technical indicators to forecast next-day closing prices. By applying Shapley Additive Explanations the model generates quantifiable and interpretable attributions for the contribution of each keyword to predictions. Empirical evaluations of S&P 500 data from 2015 to 2024 demonstrate that IKNet outperforms baselines, including recurrent neural networks and transformer models, reducing RMSE by up to 32.9% and improving cumulative returns by 18.5%. Moreover, IKNet enhances transparency by offering contextualized explanations of volatility events driven by public sentiment.
Holistic Order Prediction in Natural Scenes
Musacchio, Pierre, Lee, Hyunmin, Park, Jaesik
Even in controlled settings, understanding instance-wise geometries is a challenging task for a wide range of visual models. Although specialized systems exist, modern arts rely on expensive input formats (category labels, binary segmentation masks) and inference costs (a quadratic amount of forward passes). We mitigate these limitations by proposing InstaFormer, a network capable of holistic order prediction. That is, solely given an input RGB image, InstaFormer returns the full occlusion and depth orderings for all the instances in the scene in a single forward pass. At its core, InstaFormer relies on interactions between object queries and latent mask descriptors that semantically represent the same objects while carrying complementary information. We comprehensively benchmark and ablate our approach to highlight its effectiveness. Our code and models are open-source and available at this URL: https://github.com/SNU-VGILab/InstaOrder.
The Emergence of Social Science of Large Language Models
The social science of large language models (LLMs) examines how these systems evoke mind attributions, interact with one another, and transform human activity and institutions. We conducted a systematic review of 270 studies, combining text embeddings, unsupervised clustering and topic modeling to build a computational taxonomy. Three domains emerge organically across the reviewed literature. LLM as Social Minds examines whether and when models display behaviors that elicit attributions of cognition, morality and bias, while addressing challenges such as test leakage and surface cues. LLM Societies examines multi-agent settings where interaction protocols, architectures and mechanism design shape coordination, norms, institutions and collective epistemic processes. LLM-Human Interactions examines how LLMs reshape tasks, learning, trust, work and governance, and how risks arise at the human-AI interface. This taxonomy provides a reproducible map of a fragmented field, clarifies evidentiary standards across levels of analysis, and highlights opportunities for cumulative progress in the social science of artificial intelligence.
Detecting and Rectifying Noisy Labels: A Similarity-based Approach
Huu-Tien, Dang, Nguyen, Minh-Phuong, Inoue, Naoya
Label noise in datasets could significantly damage the performance and robustness of deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on these datasets. As the size of modern DNNs grows, there is a growing demand for automated tools for detecting such errors. In this paper, we propose post-hoc, model-agnostic noise detection and rectification methods utilizing the penultimate feature from a DNN. Our idea is based on the observation that the similarity between the penultimate feature of a mislabeled data point and its true class data points is higher than that for data points from other classes, making the probability of label occurrence within a tight, similar cluster informative for detecting and rectifying errors. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that our approach achieves high detection performance across diverse, realistic noise scenarios and can automatically rectify these errors to improve dataset quality.
On the Fragility of Contribution Score Computation in Federated Learning
Pejo, Balazs, Frank, Marcell, Varga, Krisztian, Veliczky, Peter, Biczok, Gergely
This paper investigates the fragility of contribution evaluation in federated learning, a critical mechanism for ensuring fairness and incentivizing participation. We argue that contribution scores are susceptible to significant distortions from two fundamental perspectives: architectural sensitivity and intentional manipulation. First, we explore how different model aggregation methods impact these scores. While most research assumes a basic averaging approach, we demonstrate that advanced techniques, including those designed to handle unreliable or diverse clients, can unintentionally yet significantly alter the final scores. Second, we explore vulnerabilities posed by poisoning attacks, where malicious participants strategically manipulate their model updates to inflate their own contribution scores or reduce the importance of other participants. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets and model architectures, implemented within the Flower framework, we rigorously show that both the choice of aggregation method and the presence of attackers are potent vectors for distorting contribution scores, highlighting a critical need for more robust evaluation schemes.