Statistical Learning
Automatic generation of DRI Statements
Assessing the quality of group deliberation is essential for improving our understanding of deliberative processes. The Deliberative Reason Index (DRI) offers a sophisticated metric for evaluating group reasoning, but its implementation has been constrained by the complex and time-consuming process of statement generation. This thesis introduces an innovative, automated approach to DRI statement generation that leverages advanced natural language processing (NLP) and large language models (LLMs) to substantially reduce the human effort involved in survey preparation. Key contributions are a systematic framework for automated DRI statement generation and a methodological innovation that significantly lowers the barrier to conducting comprehensive deliberative process assessments. In addition, the findings provide a replicable template for integrating generative artificial intelligence into social science research methodologies.
How many stations are sufficient? Exploring the effect of urban weather station density reduction on imputation accuracy of air temperature and humidity
Plein, Marvin, Dormann, Carsten F., Christen, Andreas
Urban weather station networks (WSNs) are widely used to monitor urban weather and climate patterns and aid urban planning. However, maintaining WSNs is expensive and labor-intensive. Here, we present a step-wise station removal procedure to thin an existing WSN in Freiburg, Germany, and analyze the ability of WSN subsets to reproduce air temperature and humidity patterns of the entire original WSN for a year following a simulated reduction of WSN density. We found that substantial reductions in station numbers after one year of full deployment are possible while retaining high predictive accuracy. A reduction from 42 to 4 stations, for instance, increased mean prediction RMSEs from 0.69 K to 0.83 K for air temperature and from 3.8% to 4.4% for relative humidity, corresponding to RMSE increases of only 20% and 16%, respectively. Predictive accuracy is worse for remote stations in forests than for stations in built-up or open settings, but consistently better than a state-of-the-art numerical urban land-surface model (Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme). Stations located at the edges between built-up and rural areas are most valuable when reconstructing city-wide climate characteristics. Our study demonstrates the potential of thinning WSNs to maximize the efficient allocation of financial and personnel-related resources in urban climate research.
Enhanced Water Leak Detection with Convolutional Neural Networks and One-Class Support Vector Machine
Leonzio, Daniele Ugo, Bestagini, Paolo, Marcon, Marco, Tubaro, Stefano
Water is a critical resource that must be managed efficiently. However, a substantial amount of water is lost each year due to leaks in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs). This underscores the need for reliable and effective leak detection and localization systems. In recent years, various solutions have been proposed, with data-driven approaches gaining increasing attention due to their superior performance. In this paper, we propose a new method for leak detection. The method is based on water pressure measurements acquired at a series of nodes of a WDN. Our technique is a fully data-driven solution that makes only use of the knowledge of the WDN topology, and a series of pressure data acquisitions obtained in absence of leaks. The proposed solution is based on an feature extractor and a one-class Support Vector Machines (SVM) trained on no-leak data, so that leaks are detected as anomalies. The results achieved on a simulate dataset using the Modena WDN demonstrate that the proposed solution outperforms recent methods for leak detection.
How Data Quality Affects Machine Learning Models for Credit Risk Assessment
Machine Learning (ML) models are being increasingly employed for credit risk evaluation, with their effectiveness largely hinging on the quality of the input data. In this paper we investigate the impact of several data quality issues, including missing values, noisy attributes, outliers, and label errors, on the predictive accuracy of the machine learning model used in credit risk assessment. Utilizing an open-source dataset, we introduce controlled data corruption using the Pucktrick library to assess the robustness of 10 frequently used models like Random Forest, SVM, and Logistic Regression and so on. Our experiments show significant differences in model robustness based on the nature and severity of the data degradation. Moreover, the proposed methodology and accompanying tools offer practical support for practitioners seeking to enhance data pipeline robustness, and provide researchers with a flexible framework for further experimentation in data-centric AI contexts.
Near-optimal Linear Predictive Clustering in Non-separable Spaces via Mixed Integer Programming and Quadratic Pseudo-Boolean Reductions
Liang, Jiazhou, Khurram, Hassan, Sanner, Scott
Linear Predictive Clustering (LPC) partitions samples based on shared linear relationships between feature and target variables, with numerous applications including marketing, medicine, and education. Greedy optimization methods, commonly used for LPC, alternate between clustering and linear regression but lack global optimality. While effective for separable clusters, they struggle in non-separable settings where clusters overlap in feature space. In an alternative constrained optimization paradigm, Bertsimas and Shioda (2007) formulated LPC as a Mixed-Integer Program (MIP), ensuring global optimality regardless of separability but suffering from poor scalability. This work builds on the constrained optimization paradigm to introduce two novel approaches that improve the efficiency of global optimization for LPC. By leveraging key theoretical properties of separability, we derive near-optimal approximations with provable error bounds, significantly reducing the MIP formulation's complexity and improving scalability. Additionally, we can further approximate LPC as a Quadratic Pseudo-Boolean Optimization (QPBO) problem, achieving substantial computational improvements in some settings. Comparative analyses on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods consistently achieve near-optimal solutions with substantially lower regression errors than greedy optimization while exhibiting superior scalability over existing MIP formulations.
Learning Intersections of Two Margin Halfspaces under Factorizable Distributions
Diakonikolas, Ilias, Ma, Mingchen, Ren, Lisheng, Tzamos, Christos
Learning intersections of halfspaces is a central problem in Computational Learning Theory. Even for just two halfspaces, it remains a major open question whether learning is possible in polynomial time with respect to the margin $ฮณ$ of the data points and their dimensionality $d$. The best-known algorithms run in quasi-polynomial time $d^{O(\log(1/ฮณ))}$, and it has been shown that this complexity is unavoidable for any algorithm relying solely on correlational statistical queries (CSQ). In this work, we introduce a novel algorithm that provably circumvents the CSQ hardness barrier. Our approach applies to a broad class of distributions satisfying a natural, previously studied, factorizability assumption. Factorizable distributions lie between distribution-specific and distribution-free settings, and significantly extend previously known tractable cases. Under these distributions, we show that CSQ-based methods still require quasipolynomial time even for weakly learning, whereas our algorithm achieves $poly(d,1/ฮณ)$ time by leveraging more general statistical queries (SQ), establishing a strong separation between CSQ and SQ for this simple realizable PAC learning problem. Our result is grounded in a rigorous analysis utilizing a novel duality framework that characterizes the moment tensor structure induced by the marginal distributions. Building on these structural insights, we propose new, efficient learning algorithms. These algorithms combine a refined variant of Jennrich's Algorithm with PCA over random projections of the moment tensor, along with a gradient-descent-based non-convex optimization framework.
SMoFi: Step-wise Momentum Fusion for Split Federated Learning on Heterogeneous Data
Yang, Mingkun, Zhu, Ran, Wang, Qing, Yang, Jie
Split Federated Learning is a system-efficient federated learning paradigm that leverages the rich computing resources at a central server to train model partitions. Data heterogeneity across silos, however, presents a major challenge undermining the convergence speed and accuracy of the global model. This paper introduces Step-wise Momentum Fusion (SMoFi), an effective and lightweight framework that counteracts gradient divergence arising from data heterogeneity by synchronizing the momentum buffers across server-side optimizers. To control gradient divergence over the training process, we design a staleness-aware alignment mechanism that imposes constraints on gradient updates of the server-side submodel at each optimization step. Extensive validations on multiple real-world datasets show that SMoFi consistently improves global model accuracy (up to 7.1%) and convergence speed (up to 10.25$\times$). Furthermore, SMoFi has a greater impact with more clients involved and deeper learning models, making it particularly suitable for model training in resource-constrained contexts.
History Rhymes: Macro-Contextual Retrieval for Robust Financial Forecasting
Khanna, Sarthak, Berger, Armin, Chopra, Muskaan, Berghaus, David, Sifa, Rafet
Financial markets are inherently non-stationary: structural breaks and macroeconomic regime shifts often cause forecasting models to fail when deployed out of distribution (OOD). Conventional multimodal approaches that simply fuse numerical indicators and textual sentiment rarely adapt to such shifts. We introduce macro-contextual retrieval, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that grounds each prediction in historically analogous macroeconomic regimes. The method jointly embeds macro indicators (e.g., CPI, unemployment, yield spread, GDP growth) and financial news sentiment in a shared similarity space, enabling causal retrieval of precedent periods during inference without retraining. Trained on seventeen years of S&P 500 data (2007-2023) and evaluated OOD on AAPL (2024) and XOM (2024), the framework consistently narrows the CV to OOD performance gap. Macro-conditioned retrieval achieves the only positive out-of-sample trading outcomes (AAPL: PF=1.18, Sharpe=0.95; XOM: PF=1.16, Sharpe=0.61), while static numeric, text-only, and naive multimodal baselines collapse under regime shifts. Beyond metric gains, retrieved neighbors form interpretable evidence chains that correspond to recognizable macro contexts, such as inflationary or yield-curve inversion phases, supporting causal interpretability and transparency. By operationalizing the principle that "financial history may not repeat, but it often rhymes," this work demonstrates that macro-aware retrieval yields robust, explainable forecasts under distributional change. All datasets, models, and source code are publicly available.
GenePheno: Interpretable Gene Knockout-Induced Phenotype Abnormality Prediction from Gene Sequences
Yan, Jingquan, Miao, Yuwei, Yu, Lei, Guo, Yuzhi, Xiao, Xue, Xu, Lin, Huang, Junzhou
Exploring how genetic sequences shape phenotypes is a fundamental challenge in biology and a key step toward scalable, hypothesis-driven experimentation. The task is complicated by the large modality gap between sequences and phenotypes, as well as the pleiotropic nature of gene-phenotype relationships. Existing sequence-based efforts focus on the degree to which variants of specific genes alter a limited set of phenotypes, while general gene knockout induced phenotype abnormality prediction methods heavily rely on curated genetic information as inputs, which limits scalability and generalizability. As a result, the task of broadly predicting the presence of multiple phenotype abnormalities under gene knockout directly from gene sequences remains underexplored. We introduce GenePheno, the first interpretable multi-label prediction framework that predicts knockout induced phenotypic abnormalities from gene sequences. GenePheno employs a contrastive multi-label learning objective that captures inter-phenotype correlations, complemented by an exclusive regularization that enforces biological consistency. It further incorporates a gene function bottleneck layer, offering human interpretable concepts that reflect functional mechanisms behind phenotype formation. To support progress in this area, we curate four datasets with canonical gene sequences as input and multi-label phenotypic abnormalities induced by gene knockouts as targets. Across these datasets, GenePheno achieves state-of-the-art gene-centric $F_{\text{max}}$ and phenotype-centric AUC, and case studies demonstrate its ability to reveal gene functional mechanisms.
AMaPO: Adaptive Margin-attached Preference Optimization for Language Model Alignment
Deng, Ruibo, Feng, Duanyu, Lei, Wenqiang
Offline preference optimization offers a simpler and more stable alternative to RLHF for aligning language models. However, their effectiveness is critically dependent on ranking accuracy, a metric where further gains are highly im-pactful. This limitation arises from a fundamental problem that we identify and formalize as the Overfitting-Underfitting Dilemma: current margin designs cause models to apply excessive, wasteful gradients to correctly ranked samples (over-fitting) while providing insufficient corrective signals for misranked ones (underfitting). To resolve this dilemma, we propose Adaptive Margin-attached Preference Optimization (AMaPO), a simple yet principled algorithm. AMaPO employs an instance-wise adaptive margin, refined by Z-normalization and exponential scaling, which dynamically reallocates learning effort by amplifying gradients for mis-ranked samples and suppressing them for correct ones. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that AMaPO not only achieves better ranking accuracy and superior downstream alignment performance, but targeted analysis also confirms that it successfully mitigates the core overfitting and underfitting issues.