Statistical Learning
On Robustness of Linear Classifiers to Targeted Data Poisoning
Gupta, Nakshatra, Prabhu, Sumanth, Chakraborty, Supratik, Venkatesh, R
Data poisoning is a training-time attack that undermines the trustworthiness of learned models. In a targeted data poisoning attack, an adversary manipulates the training dataset to alter the classification of a targeted test point. Given the typically large size of training dataset, manual detection of poisoning is difficult. An alternative is to automatically measure a dataset's robustness against such an attack, which is the focus of this paper. We consider a threat model wherein an adversary can only perturb the labels of the training dataset, with knowledge limited to the hypothesis space of the victim's model. In this setting, we prove that finding the robustness is an NP-Complete problem, even when hypotheses are linear classifiers. To overcome this, we present a technique that finds lower and upper bounds of robustness. Our implementation of the technique computes these bounds efficiently in practice for many publicly available datasets. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, a poisoning exceeding the identified robustness bounds significantly impacts test point classification. We are also able to compute these bounds in many more cases where state-of-the-art techniques fail.
Oxytrees: Model Trees for Bipartite Learning
Ilídio, Pedro, Nakano, Felipe Kenji, Gharahighehi, Alireza, D'hondt, Robbe, Cerri, Ricardo, Vens, Celine
Bipartite learning is a machine learning task that aims to predict interactions between pairs of instances. It has been applied to various domains, including drug-target interactions, RNA-disease associations, and regulatory network inference. Despite being widely investigated, current methods still present drawbacks, as they are often designed for a specific application and thus do not generalize to other problems or present scalability issues. To address these challenges, we propose Oxytrees: proxy-based biclustering model trees. Oxytrees compress the interaction matrix into row- and column-wise proxy matrices, significantly reducing training time without compromising predictive performance. We also propose a new leaf-assignment algorithm that significantly reduces the time taken for prediction. Finally, Oxytrees employ linear models using the Kronecker product kernel in their leaves, resulting in shallower trees and thus even faster training. Using 15 datasets, we compared the predictive performance of ensembles of Oxytrees with that of the current state-of-the-art. We achieved up to 30-fold improvement in training times compared to state-of-the-art biclustering forests, while demonstrating competitive or superior performance in most evaluation settings, particularly in the inductive setting. Finally, we provide an intuitive Python API to access all datasets, methods and evaluation measures used in this work, thus enabling reproducible research in this field.
HEDGE: Hallucination Estimation via Dense Geometric Entropy for VQA with Vision-Language Models
Gautam, Sushant, Riegler, Michael A., Halvorsen, Pål
Vision-language models (VLMs) enable open-ended visual question answering but remain prone to hallucinations. We present HEDGE, a unified framework for hallucination detection that combines controlled visual perturbations, semantic clustering, and robust uncertainty metrics. HEDGE integrates sampling, distortion synthesis, clustering (entailment- and embedding-based), and metric computation into a reproducible pipeline applicable across multimodal architectures. Evaluations on VQA-RAD and KvasirVQA-x1 with three representative VLMs (LLaVA-Med, Med-Gemma, Qwen2.5-VL) reveal clear architecture- and prompt-dependent trends. Hallucination detectability is highest for unified-fusion models with dense visual tokenization (Qwen2.5-VL) and lowest for architectures with restricted tokenization (Med-Gemma). Embedding-based clustering often yields stronger separation when applied directly to the generated answers, whereas NLI-based clustering remains advantageous for LLaVA-Med and for longer, sentence-level responses. Across configurations, the VASE metric consistently provides the most robust hallucination signal, especially when paired with embedding clustering and a moderate sampling budget (n ~ 10-15). Prompt design also matters: concise, label-style outputs offer clearer semantic structure than syntactically constrained one-sentence responses. By framing hallucination detection as a geometric robustness problem shaped jointly by sampling scale, prompt structure, model architecture, and clustering strategy, HEDGE provides a principled, compute-aware foundation for evaluating multimodal reliability. The hedge-bench PyPI library enables reproducible and extensible benchmarking, with full code and experimental resources available at https://github.com/Simula/HEDGE .
Adaptive Dual-Layer Web Application Firewall (ADL-WAF) Leveraging Machine Learning for Enhanced Anomaly and Threat Detection
Web Application Firewalls are crucial for protecting web applications against a wide range of cyber threats. Traditional Web Application Firewalls often struggle to effectively distinguish between malicious and legitimate traffic, leading to limited efficacy in threat detection. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes an Adaptive Dual-Layer WAF employing a two-layered Machine Learning model designed to enhance the accuracy of anomaly and threat detection. The first layer employs a Decision Tree (DT) algorithm to detect anomalies by identifying traffic deviations from established normal patterns. The second layer employs Support Vector Machine to classify these anomalies as either threat anomalies or benign anomalies. Our Adaptive Dual Layer WAF incorporates comprehensive data pre-processing and feature engineering techniques and has been thoroughly evaluated using five large benchmark datasets. Evaluation using these datasets shows that ADL WAF achieves a detection accuracy of 99.88% and a precision of 100%, significantly enhancing anomaly detection and reducing false positives. These findings suggest that integrating machine learning techniques into WAFs can substantially improve web application security by providing more accurate and efficient threat detection.
Training Instabilities Induce Flatness Bias in Gradient Descent
Wang, Lawrence, Roberts, Stephen J.
Classical analyses of gradient descent (GD) define a stability threshold based on the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian, often termed sharpness. When the learning rate lies below this threshold, training is stable and the loss decreases monotonically. Yet, modern deep networks often achieve their best performance beyond this regime. We demonstrate that such instabilities induce an implicit bias in GD, driving parameters toward flatter regions of the loss landscape and thereby improving generalization. The key mechanism is the Rotational Polarity of Eigenvectors (RPE), a geometric phenomenon in which the leading eigenvectors of the Hessian rotate during training instabilities. These rotations, which increase with learning rates, promote exploration and provably lead to flatter minima. This theoretical framework extends to stochastic GD, where instability-driven flattening persists and its empirical effects outweigh minibatch noise. Finally, we show that restoring instabilities in Adam further improves generalization. Together, these results establish and understand the constructive role of training instabilities in deep learning.
CAO: Curvature-Adaptive Optimization via Periodic Low-Rank Hessian Sketching
First-order optimizers are reliable but slow in sharp, anisotropic regions. We study a curvature-adaptive method that periodically sketches a low-rank Hessian subspace via Hessian--vector products and preconditions gradients only in that subspace, leaving the orthogonal complement first-order. For L-smooth non-convex objectives, we recover the standard O(1/T) stationarity guarantee with a widened stable stepsize range; under a Polyak--Lojasiewicz (PL) condition with bounded residual curvature outside the sketch, the loss contracts at refresh steps. On CIFAR-10/100 with ResNet-18/34, the method enters the low-loss region substantially earlier: measured by epochs to a pre-declared train-loss threshold (0.75), it reaches the threshold 2.95x faster than Adam on CIFAR-100/ResNet-18, while matching final test accuracy. The approach is one-knob: performance is insensitive to the sketch rank k across {1,3,5}, and k=0 yields a principled curvature-free ablation. We release anonymized logs and scripts that regenerate all figures and tables.
Towards Better IncomLDL: We Are Unaware of Hidden Labels in Advance
Jiang, Jiecheng, Tang, Jiawei, Jiang, Jiahao, Liu, Hui, Hou, Junhui, Jia, Yuheng
Label distribution learning (LDL) is a novel paradigm that describe the samples by label distribution of a sample. However, acquiring LDL dataset is costly and time-consuming, which leads to the birth of incomplete label distribution learning (IncomLDL). All the previous IncomLDL methods set the description degrees of "missing" labels in an instance to 0, but remains those of other labels unchanged. This setting is unrealistic because when certain labels are missing, the degrees of the remaining labels will increase accordingly. We fix this unrealistic setting in IncomLDL and raise a new problem: LDL with hidden labels (HidLDL), which aims to recover a complete label distribution from a real-world incomplete label distribution where certain labels in an instance are omitted during annotation. To solve this challenging problem, we discover the significance of proportional information of the observed labels and capture it by an innovative constraint to utilize it during the optimization process. We simultaneously use local feature similarity and the global low-rank structure to reveal the mysterious veil of hidden labels. Moreover, we theoretically give the recovery bound of our method, proving the feasibility of our method in learning from hidden labels. Extensive recovery and predictive experiments on various datasets prove the superiority of our method to state-of-the-art LDL and IncomLDL methods.
Logarithmic Regret and Polynomial Scaling in Online Multi-step-ahead Prediction
This letter studies the problem of online multi-step-ahead prediction for unknown linear stochastic systems. Using conditional distribution theory, we derive an optimal parameterization of the prediction policy as a linear function of future inputs, past inputs, and past outputs. Based on this characterization, we propose an online least-squares algorithm to learn the policy and analyze its regret relative to the optimal model-based predictor. We show that the online algorithm achieves logarithmic regret with respect to the optimal Kalman filter in the multi-step setting. Furthermore, with new proof techniques, we establish an almost-sure regret bound that does not rely on fixed failure probabilities for sufficiently large horizons $N$. Finally, our analysis also reveals that, while the regret remains logarithmic in $N$, its constant factor grows polynomially with the prediction horizon $H$, with the polynomial order set by the largest Jordan block of eigenvalue 1 in the system matrix.
A Multicollinearity-Aware Signal-Processing Framework for Cross-$β$ Identification via X-ray Scattering of Alzheimer's Tissue
Bashit, Abdullah Al, Nepal, Prakash, Makowski, Lee
X-ray scattering measurements of in situ human brain tissue encode structural signatures of pathological cross-$β$ inclusions, yet systematic exploitation of these data for automated detection remains challenging due to substrate contamination, strong inter-feature correlations, and limited sample sizes. This work develops a three-stage classification framework for identifying cross-$β$ structural inclusions-a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease-in X-ray scattering profiles of post-mortem human brain. Stage 1 employs a Bayes-optimal classifier to separate mica substrate from tissue regions on the basis of their distinct scattering signatures. Stage 2 introduces a multicollinearityaware, class-conditional correlation pruning scheme with formal guarantees on the induced Bayes risk and approximation error, thereby reducing redundancy while retaining class-discriminative information. Stage 3 trains a compact neural network on the pruned feature set to detect the presence or absence of cross-$β$ fibrillar ordering. The top-performing model, optimized with a composite loss combining Focal and Dice objectives, attains a test F1-score of 84.30% using 11 of 211 candidate features and 174 trainable parameters. The overall framework yields an interpretable, theory-grounded strategy for data-limited classification problems involving correlated, high-dimensional experimental measurements, exemplified here by X-ray scattering profiles of neurodegenerative tissue.
Stochastic Predictive Analytics for Stocks in the Newsvendor Problem
The Newsvendor problem is a fundamental model in inventory management (Rossi, 2021) that accommodates both known (Dvoretzky et al., 1952a) and unknown (Dvoretzky et al., 1952b) demand distributions. Since its inception (Edgewort, 1888), it has been widely applied in inventory control and policy-making (Arrow et al., 1951), as well as various real-world situations (Choi, 2012; Chen et al., 2016). Its simplicity stems from considering a single product for sale, for which the optimal initial stock level must be determined to satisfy forecasted demand over a given period without restocking. The interplay among purchasing cost, selling price, and stock ordered at the beginning of the period determines the inventory management policies (Whitin, 1952; Rosenblatt, 1954; Petruzzi and Dada, 1999). The model has been extensively studied for single stock-keeping units (SKUs). Electronic marketplaces introduce an extra complication to the problem, as they need to manage a large number of SKUs at distribution centers alongside highly variable demand received through electronic platforms.