This study investigates semiparametric efficient estimation of causal and structural parameters in a semi-supervised setting. In our setting, unlabeled auxiliary regressors are available in addition to labeled observations consisting of outcomes and regressors. Our goal is to construct estimators of causal and structural parameters whose asymptotic variances are smaller than those of estimators constructed using only labeled data. We refer to this framework as prediction-powered causal inference (PPCI). We first derive the efficient influence function and the efficiency bound, which imply that the use of auxiliary regressors can attain a smaller asymptotic variance than the efficiency bound attainable from labeled observations alone. Then, by combining the efficient influence function with the debiased machine learning (DML) framework, we propose methods that we call DML-PPCI. If we construct an estimating-equation estimator, we refer to the method as EE-DML-PPCI; if we construct a targeted-learning estimator, we refer to the method as TMLE-DML-PPCI. The asymptotic variances of both estimators match our derived efficiency bound. In the construction of the estimators, estimation of the efficient influence function plays an important role. In our study, the efficient influence function is also a Neyman orthogonal score, which depends on the Riesz representer and the regression function. For Riesz representer estimation, we develop semi-supervised generalized Riesz regression with convergence rate guarantees.

A key strength of diffusion models lies in their flexibility, since their outputs can be controlled at sampling time through guidance. However, beyond simple cases such as conditional sampling, the target distribution is often left implicit, defined only through a sampling rule or a heuristic energy function. To address this, we propose Jeffrey guidance, a principled framework that extends diffusion-model control to applications beyond what standard guidance can express. It leverages Jeffrey's rule of conditioning to update marginal distributions towards a prescribed target, preserving the conditional structure and minimally perturbing the joint distribution. We first demonstrate Jeffrey guidance by targeting a prescribed embedding distribution. With Inception embeddings as the target, this leads to substantial reductions in FID on both CIFAR-10 and FFHQ. We further apply Jeffrey guidance to fairness on CelebA-HQ, updating an unconditional diffusion model to enforce independence between attributes.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

Classical kernel machines have historically faced significant challenges in scaling to large datasets and model sizes--a key ingredient that has driven the success of neural networks. In this paper, we present a new methodology for building kernel machines that can scale efficiently with both data size and model size. Our algorithm introduces delayed projections to Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent (PSGD) allowing the training of much larger models than was previously feasible.

Contrary to common belief, we show that gradient ascent-based unconstrained optimization methods frequently fail to perform machine unlearning, a phenomenon we attribute to the inherent statistical dependence between the forget and retain data sets. This dependence, which can manifest itself even as simple correlations, undermines the misconception that these sets can be independently manipulated during unlearning. We provide empirical and theoretical evidence showing these methods often fail precisely due to this overlooked relationship. For random forget sets, this dependence means that degrading forget set metrics (which, for a retrained model, should mirror test set metrics) inevitably harms overall test performance. Going beyond random sets, we consider logistic regression as an instructive example where a critical failure mode emerges: inter-set dependence causes gradient descent-ascent iterations to progressively diverge from the ideal retrained model. Strikingly, these methods can converge to solutions that are not only far from the retrained ideal but are potentially even further from it than the original model itself, rendering the unlearning process actively detrimental. A toy example further illustrates how this dependence can trap models in inferior local minima, inescapable via finetuning. Our findings highlight that the presence of such statistical dependencies, even when manifest only as correlations, can be sufficient for ascent-based unlearning to fail. Our theoretical insights are corroborated by experiments on complex neural networks, demonstrating that these methods do not perform as expected in practice due to this unaddressed statistical interplay.

We aim to provide a unified convergence analysis for permutation-based Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), where data examples are permuted before each epoch.

Deep neural networks trained with gradient descent exhibit varying rates of learning for different patterns. However, the complexity of fitting models to data makes direct elucidation of the dynamics of learned patterns challenging. To circumvent this, many works have opted to characterize phases of learning through summary statistics known as order parameters. In this work, we propose a unifying framework for constructing order parameters based on the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK), in which the relationship with the data set is more transparent. In particular, we derive a local approximation of the NTK for a class of deep regression models (SIRENs) trained to reconstruct natural images. In so doing, we analytically connect three seemingly distinct phase transitions: the emergence of wave patterns in residuals (a novel observation), loss rate collapse, and NTK alignment. Our results provide a dynamical perspective on the observed biases of SIRENs, and deep image regression models more generally.

Self-attention has emerged as a fundamental component driving the success of modern transformer architectures, which power large language models and various applications. However, a theoretical understanding of how such models actually work is still under active development. The recent work of (Marion et al., 2025) introduced the so-called single-location regression problem, which can provably be solved by a simplified self-attention layer but not by linear models, thereby demonstrating a striking functional separation. A rigorous analysis of self-attention with softmax for this problem is challenging due to the coupled nature of the model. In the present work, we use ideas from the classical random energy model in statistical physics to analyze softmax self-attention on the single-location problem. Our analysis yields exact analytic expressions for the population risk in terms of the overlaps between the learned model parameters and those of an oracle. Moreover, we derive a detailed description of the gradient descent dynamics for these overlaps and prove that, under broad conditions, the dynamics converge to the unique oracle attractor. Our work not only advances our understanding of self-attention but also provides key theoretical ideas that are likely to find use in further analyses of even more complex transformer architectures.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has long been seen as inseparable from Markov games (Littman 1994). Yet, the most remarkable achievements of practical MARL have arguably been in extensive-form games (EFGs)---spanning games like Poker, Stratego, and Hanabi. At the same time, little is known about provable equilibrium convergence for MARL algorithms applied to EFGs as they stumble upon the inherent nonconvexity of the optimization landscape and the failure of the value-iteration subroutine in EFGs. To this goal, we utilize contemporary advances in nonconvex optimization theory to prove that regularized alternating policy gradient with (i) *direct policy parametrization*, (ii) *softmax policy parametrization*, and (iii) *softmax policy parametrization with natural policy gradient* updates converge to an approximate Nash equilibrium (NE) in the *last-iterate* in imperfect-information perfect-recall zero-sum EFGs. Namely, we observe that since the individual utilities are concave with respect to the sequence-form strategy, they satisfy gradient dominance w.r.t. the behavioral strategy---or, \textit{policy}, in reinforcement learning terms. We exploit this structure to further prove that the regularized utility satisfies the much stronger proximal Polyak- Łojasiewicz condition. In turn, we show that the different flavors of alternating policy gradient methods converge to an $\epsilon$-approximate NE with a number of iterations and trajectory samples that are polynomial in $1/\epsilon$ and the natural parameters of the game. Our work is a preliminary---yet principled---attempt in bridging the conceptual gap between the theory of Markov and imperfect-information EFGs while it aspires to stimulate a deeper dialogue between them.

Token embeddings play a crucial role in language modeling but, despite this practical relevance, their theoretical understanding is limited. Our paper addresses the gap by characterizing the structure of embeddings obtained via gradient descent.