Statistical Learning
From Video-to-PDE: Data-Driven Discovery of Nonlinear Dye Plume Dynamics
Acosta-Minoli, Cesar, Sarkar, Sayantan
Inferring continuum models directly from video is hampered by two facts: the recorded field is uncalibrated image intensity rather than a physical state, and direct numerical differentiation of noisy frames is unstable. We develop a video-to-PDE pipeline that converts grayscale recordings of an ink plume into a normalised scalar field $u(x,y,t)$, isolates a bulk drift $\mathbf{v}(t)$ from intrinsic spreading via the intensity-weighted centroid, and identifies an effective transport law by weak-form sparse regression. Conditioning, threshold-sweep and random-centre diagnostics show that overcomplete libraries are strongly collinear; the search is therefore restricted to compact gradient-based libraries. Coefficients are refined by an inverse physics-informed network and recalibrated against forward rollouts, with a chronological block bootstrap quantifying uncertainty. The selected reduced model $u_t+\mathbf v(t)\!\cdot\!\nabla u = 9.005\,|\nabla u|^{2}+0.666\,Δu$ outperforms advection--diffusion baselines on held-out frames, retains a positive Laplacian coefficient, and admits a Cole--Hopf reduction to a linear advection--diffusion equation. The framework demonstrates that uncalibrated visual data can yield compact, predictive and structurally interpretable continuum models when discovery, calibration and uncertainty are treated as distinct stages.
Confirmation of Binary Clustering in Gamma-Ray Bursts through an Integrated $p$-value from Multiple Nonparametric Tests of Hypotheses
The paper applies a new, nonparametric, interpoint distance-based measure to confirm the inherent groups prevailing in the brightest source of light in the universe: gamma-ray bursts. Our effective metric, in association with clustering methods like Gaussian-mixture model-based and $K$-means algorithms, resolves the conflict regarding the possibility about existence of more than binary clusters in the gamma-ray burst population. Here we carry out multiple nonparametric statistical tests of hypotheses, as many as the number of bursts available from the `BATSE' catalog. An integrated $p$-value achieved from the aforesaid dependent tests solves our concern confirming two groups of short and long bursts.
PAIR-CI: Calibrated Conditional Independence Testing for Causal Discovery with Incomplete Data
Robinson, Thomas S., Lall, Ranjit
The standard constraint-based paradigm for causal discovery with incomplete data -- impute first, test second -- is frequently miscalibrated: any consistent conditional independence (CI) test rejects a true null with probability approaching 1 when imputation error induces spurious conditional dependence. We introduce PAIR-CI, a nonparametric CI test that restores calibration by integrating multiple imputation directly into the inferential procedure via a paired permutation design. PAIR-CI compares cross-validated models that include and exclude the candidate variable while receiving the same imputed conditioning set, forcing imputation error to cancel in their loss difference rather than contaminate the test statistic. A provably consistent variance estimator jointly accounts for uncertainty arising from cross-validation and multiple imputation -- to our knowledge, the first formal unification of these two inferential frameworks. In simulations, existing imputation-based CI tests exhibit false positive rates of 28--45% when data are missing not at random (MNAR), whereas PAIR-CI averages below the nominal 5% level across data-generating processes and missingness mechanisms. These gains are largest in nonlinear settings and grow with causal graph size: when integrated into the PC algorithm, PAIR-CI reduces structural Hamming distance by 8% on 10-variable nonlinear graphs, 15% on 30-variable equivalents, and up to 44% on the 56-variable HAILFINDER network, with stable performance in all settings.
Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics
Dahlem, Dominik, Maniloff, Diego, Misiura, Mac
Large language models hallucinate in predictable ways: attention routing fails by over-concentrating on a narrow set of positions, or by spreading so diffusely that relevance is diluted, and the shape of the failure carries diagnostic signal. A widely used family of spectral methods analyzes the symmetric component of the degree-normalized attention operator, which governs transport capacity; we prove that every transpose-invariant spectral diagnostic of this operator is structurally orientation-blind (it cannot distinguish an operator from its transpose, and therefore cannot detect information-flow direction), with a quantitative converse establishing the asymmetry coefficient $G$ as the unique control parameter for direction. Pairing this with a closed-form bipartite-Cheeger landscape for canonical causal architectures, we show that uniform causal attention satisfies an $n$-independent floor $ϕ\ge 1/5$ with worst cut at $t^\ast/n \approx 0.32$, while window attention pierces the floor as $O(w/n)$; failure modes are shape-different, not just value-different. The resulting two-axis diagnostic ($ϕ$ for capacity, $G$ for direction) yields a falsifiable polarity prediction: bottleneck- and diffuse-dominated benchmarks should exhibit opposite polarity. Under length-controlled evaluation, transport features retain interpretable signal (LC-AUROC from 0.62 to 0.84) on tested models up to 8B parameters, with polarity reversing as predicted between HaluEval and MedHallu.
Scalable inference of spatial regions and temporal signatures from time series
Regionalization aims to partition a spatial domain into contiguous regions that share similar characteristics, enabling more effective spatial analysis, policy making, and resource management. Existing approaches for spatial regionalization typically rely on static spatial snapshots rather than evolving time series. Meanwhile, most time series clustering methods ignore spatial structure or enforce spatial continuity through ad hoc regularization, constraining the number of inferred regions a priori either explicitly or implicitly. Utilizing the minimum description length principle from information theory, here we propose an efficient and fully nonparametric framework for the regionalization of spatial time series. Our method jointly infers a spatial partition along with a set of representative time series archetypes ("drivers") that best compress a spatiotemporal dataset, with a runtime log-linear in the number of time series. We demonstrate that this method can accurately recover planted regional structure and drivers in synthetic time series, and can extract meaningful structural regularities in large-scale empirical air quality and vegetation index records. Our method provides a principled and scalable framework for spatially contiguous partitioning, allowing interpretable temporal patterns and homogeneous regions to emerge directly from the data itself.
Proximal Projection for Doubly Sparse Regularized Models
He, Jia Wei, Ali, R. Ayesha, Darlington, Gerarda
Regularization is often used in high-dimensional regression settings to generate a sparse model, which can save tremendous computing resources and identify predictors that are most strongly associated with the response. When the predictors can be represented by a Gaussian graphical model, the structure of the predictor graph can be exploited during regularization. Our proposed model exploits this underlying predictor graph structure by decomposing the estimated coefficient vector into a sum of latent variables that correspond to the sum of each node contribution to the coefficient vector. Regularization is then performed on the latent variables rather than on the coefficient vector directly. We use a penalty function that permits a clear user-defined trade-off between the L1 and L2 penalties and propose a novel proximal projection during optimization. Further, our implementation computes the projection operator for the intersection of selected groups, which conserves more computing resources compared to predictor duplication methods, especially for high-dimensional data. Through simulation, we evaluate the performance of our approach under different graph structures and node counts, and present results on real-world data. Results suggest that our method exhibits stable performance relative to other singly or doubly sparse graphical regression models.
A Bayesian Approach for Task-Specific Next-Best-View Selection with Uncertain Geometry
Zhu, Jingsen, Sellán, Silvia, Terenin, Alexander
We develop a framework for task-specific active next-best-view selection in 3D reconstruction from point clouds, by casting the problem in the language of Bayesian decision theory. Our framework works by (a) placing a prior distribution over the space of implicit surfaces, (b) using recently-developed stochastic surface reconstruction methods to calculate the resulting posterior distribution, then (c) using the posterior distribution to carefully reason about which view to scan next. This enables us to perform camera selection in a manner that is directly optimized for the intended use of the reconstructed data - meaning, we reduce uncertainty only in those regions that make a difference in the task at hand, as opposed to prior approaches that reduce it uniformly across space. We evaluate our method across three distinct downstream tasks: semantic classification, segmentation, and PDE-guided physics simulation. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves superior task performance with fewer views compared to commonly used baselines and prior general uncertainty-reduction techniques.
Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval
Barnfield, Nicholas, Kim, Juno, Nichani, Eshaan, Lee, Jason D., Lu, Yue M.
How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.
Disease Is a Spectral Perturbation
Mayfield, John D., Rosen, Matthew S.
We propose a novel method of understanding disease transformation from a healthy baseline with biomarker-level explainability. By modeling the biomarker covariance matrices of healthy controls and disease states, the perturbation can be individually characterized to accomplish mechanistic explanations of disease trajectories, both at a molecular level and for individual patients. Given a cohort of n patients each measured on p biomarkers, we define the biomarker "Hamiltonian" H = X^T X / n \in R^{p \times p}, where X \in R^{n \times p} is the covariant biomarker matrix. The eigenvectors of H define a set of normal modes of biomarker coordination, and the eigenvalues quantify the energy carried by each mode. In the healthy state, the reference Hamiltonian H_0 governs this structure where disease perturbs H_0 by an additive operator ΔH, thus shifting eigenvalues and rotating eigenvectors in proportion to the severity of pathological disruption. We formalize this framework, derive the spectral change given a disease perturbation, and demonstrate that the projection of a newly diagnosed patient's cumulative biomarker covariance structure onto disease-discriminant eigenmodes constitutes an optimal prognostic statistic for greater precision in disease prognosis. This work serves as a veritable white paper with application across a panoply of disease frameworks from cancer to neurodegenerative disorders.
Information Theory and Statistical Learning
This manuscript contains preprint of a chapter under consideration for inclusion in the forthcoming third edition of {\em Cover and Thomas's Elements of Information Theory}, posted with permission from Wiley. The table of contents EIT-3 ToC of the new edition can be found at: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L-m4oQEJw1PJhoxBeMwrrBD8S_HmvzMEkPbYvS24980/edit?usp=sharing . For feedback, please contact abbas@ee.stanford.edu Learning and information theory intersect in both model training and the characterization of fundamental performance limits. This manuscript provides a concise and accessible treatment of the first intersection, requiring only basic background in information theory and statistics at the senior undergraduate or first-year graduate level. End-of-chapter exercises make the material well suited for classroom use as well as self-study. The chapter focuses on the role of divergence measures in model training, with examples ranging from linear and logistic regression to autoregressive models, variational autoencoders, diffusion models, generative adversarial networks, and score-based models. It introduces the evidence lower bound (ELBO), $f$\!-divergences, and the Fisher divergence. In particular, the treatment of the generative diffusion model provides a more systematic and explicit derivation than is typical in the literature.