In this paper we introduce new algorithms for optimizing noisy plants in which each experiment is very expensive. The algorithms build a global nonlinear model of the expected output at the same time as using Bayesian linear regression analysis of locally weighted polynomial models. The local model answers queries about confidence, noise,gradient and Hessians, and use them to make automated decisions similar to those made by a practitioner of Response Surface Methodology. The global and local models are combined naturally as a locally weighted regression. We examine the question ofwhether the global model can really help optimization, and we extend it to the case of time-varying functions. We compare the new algorithms with a highly tuned higher-order stochastic optimization algorithmon randomly-generated functions and a simulated manufacturing task. We note significant improvements in total regret, time to converge, and final solution quality. 1 INTRODUCTION In a stochastic optimization problem, noisy samples are taken from a plant. A sample consists of a chosen control u (a vector ofreal numbers) and a noisy observed response y.

Sollat CONNECT, The Niels Bohr Institute Blegdamsdvej 17 Copenhagen 2100, Denmark Abstract We consider the problem of online gradient descent learning for general two-layer neural networks. An analytic solution is presented andused to investigate the role of the learning rate in controlling theevolution and convergence of the learning process. Two-layer networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units have been shown to be universal approximators [1] for such N-to-one dimensional maps. We investigate the emergence of generalization ability in an online learning scenario [2], in which the couplings are modified after the presentation of each example so as to minimize the corresponding error. The resulting changes in {J} are described as a dynamical evolution; the number of examples plays the role of time.

We analyze and compare the well-known Gradient Descent algorithm anda new algorithm, called the Exponentiated Gradient algorithm, for training a single neuron with an arbitrary transfer function . Both algorithms are easily generalized to larger neural networks, and the generalization of Gradient Descent is the standard back-propagationalgorithm. In this paper we prove worstcase loss bounds for both algorithms in the single neuron case. Since local minima make it difficult to prove worst-case bounds for gradient-based algorithms, we must use a loss function that prevents the formation of spurious local minima. We define such a matching loss function for any strictly increasing differentiable transfer function and prove worst-case loss bound for any such transfer function and its corresponding matching loss. For example, thematching loss for the identity function is the square loss and the matching loss for the logistic sigmoid is the entropic loss. The different structure of the bounds for the two algorithms indicates thatthe new algorithm outperforms Gradient Descent when the inputs contain a large number of irrelevant components.

The purpose of most architecture optimization schemes is to improve generalization.

Nearest neighbor classification expects the class conditional probabilities tobe locally constant, and suffers from bias in high dimensions Wepropose a locally adaptive form of nearest neighbor classification to try to finesse this curse of dimensionality. We use a local linear discriminant analysis to estimate an effective metric forcomputing neighborhoods. We determine the local decision boundaries from centroid information, and then shrink neighborhoods indirections orthogonal to these local decision boundaries, and elongate them parallel to the boundaries. Thereafter, any neighborhood-based classifier can be employed, using the modified neighborhoods. We also propose a method for global dimension reduction, that combines local dimension information.

By applying a likelihood splitting criteria to each expert in the HME we "grow" the tree adaptively during training. Secondly,by considering only the most probable path through the tree we may "prune" branches away, either temporarily, or permanently ifthey become redundant. We demonstrate results for the growing and path pruning algorithms which show significant speed ups and more efficient use of parameters over the standard fixed structure in discriminating between two interlocking spirals and classifying 8-bit parity patterns. INTRODUCTION The HME (Jordan & Jacobs 1994) is a tree structured network whose terminal nodes are simple function approximators in the case of regression or classifiers in the case of classification. The outputs of the terminal nodes or experts are recursively combined upwards towards the root node, to form the overall output of the network, by "gates" which are situated at the non-terminal nodes.

Data mining and knowledge discovery in databases have been attracting a significant amount of research, industry, and media attention of late. What is all the excitement about? This article provides an overview of this emerging field, clarifying how data mining and knowledge discovery in databases are related both to each other and to related fields, such as machine learning, statistics, and databases. The article mentions particular real-world applications, specific data-mining techniques, challenges involved in real-world applications of knowledge discovery, and current and future research directions in the field.

Clustering is often used for discovering structure in data. Clustering systems differ in the objective function used to evaluate clustering quality and the control strategy used to search the space of clusterings. Ideally, the search strategy should consistently construct clusterings of high quality, but be computationally inexpensive as well. In general, we cannot have it both ways, but we can partition the search so that a system inexpensively constructs a `tentative' clustering for initial examination, followed by iterative optimization, which continues to search in background for improved clusterings. Given this motivation, we evaluate an inexpensive strategy for creating initial clusterings, coupled with several control strategies for iterative optimization, each of which repeatedly modifies an initial clustering in search of a better one. One of these methods appears novel as an iterative optimization strategy in clustering contexts. Once a clustering has been constructed it is judged by analysts -- often according to task-specific criteria. Several authors have abstracted these criteria and posited a generic performance task akin to pattern completion, where the error rate over completed patterns is used to `externally' judge clustering utility. Given this performance task, we adapt resampling-based pruning strategies used by supervised learning systems to the task of simplifying hierarchical clusterings, thus promising to ease post-clustering analysis. Finally, we propose a number of objective functions, based on attribute-selection measures for decision-tree induction, that might perform well on the error rate and simplicity dimensions.

If data collection is costly, there is much to be gained by actively selecting particularly informative data points in a sequential way. In a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework we develop a query selection criterion which explicitly takes into account the intended use of the model predictions. By Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods the necessary quantities can be approximated to a desired precision. As the number of data points grows, the model complexity is modified by a Bayesian model selection strategy. The properties of two versions of the criterion ate demonstrated in numerical experiments.

We present a graph-based method for rapid, accurate search through prototypes for transformation-invariant pattern classification. Ourmethod has in theory the same recognition accuracy as other recent methods based on ''tangent distance" [Simard et al., 1994], since it uses the same categorization rule. Nevertheless ours is significantly faster during classification because far fewer tangent distancesneed be computed. Crucial to the success of our system are 1) a novel graph architecture in which transformation constraints and geometric relationships among prototypes are encoded duringlearning, and 2) an improved graph search criterion, used during classification. These architectural insights are applicable toa wide range of problem domains.