Our goal is to predict the class membership of an observation with predictor vector Xo Nearest neighbor classification is a simple and appealing approach to this problem.

"Family discovery" is the task of learning the dimension and structure of a parameterized family of stochastic models. It is especially appropriate when the training examples are partitioned into "episodes" of samples drawn from a single parameter value. We present three family discovery algorithms based on surface learning and show that they significantly improve performance over two alternatives on a parameterized classification task.

We consider the problem of online gradient descent learning for general two-layer neural networks. An analytic solution is presented and used to investigate the role of the learning rate in controlling the evolution and convergence of the learning process. Two-layer networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units have been shown to be universal approximators [1] for such N-to-one dimensional maps. We investigate the emergence of generalization ability in an online learning scenario [2], in which the couplings are modified after the presentation of each example so as to minimize the corresponding error. The resulting changes in {J} are described as a dynamical evolution; the number of examples plays the role of time.

In this paper we introduce new algorithms for optimizing noisy plants in which each experiment is very expensive. The algorithms build a global nonlinear model of the expected output at the same time as using Bayesian linear regression analysis of locally weighted polynomial models. The local model answers queries about confidence, noise, gradient and Hessians, and use them to make automated decisions similar to those made by a practitioner of Response Surface Methodology. The global and local models are combined naturally as a locally weighted regression. We examine the question of whether the global model can really help optimization, and we extend it to the case of time-varying functions. We compare the new algorithms with a highly tuned higher-order stochastic optimization algorithm on randomly-generated functions and a simulated manufacturing task. We note significant improvements in total regret, time to converge, and final solution quality. 1 INTRODUCTION In a stochastic optimization problem, noisy samples are taken from a plant. A sample consists of a chosen control u (a vector ofreal numbers) and a noisy observed response y.

A theory of early stopping as applied to linear models is presented. The backpropagation learning algorithm is modeled as gradient descent in continuous time. Given a training set and a validation set, all weight vectors found by early stopping must lie on a certain quadric surface, usually an ellipsoid. Given a training set and a candidate early stopping weight vector, all validation sets have least-squares weights lying on a certain plane. This latter fact can be exploited to estimate the probability of stopping at any given point along the trajectory from the initial weight vector to the leastsquares weights derived from the training set, and to estimate the probability that training goes on indefinitely. The prospects for extending this theory to nonlinear models are discussed.

We introduce a constructive, incremental learning system for regression problems that models data by means of locally linear experts. In contrast to other approaches, the experts are trained independently and do not compete for data during learning. Only when a prediction for a query is required do the experts cooperate by blending their individual predictions. Each expert is trained by minimizing a penalized local cross validation error using second order methods. In this way, an expert is able to find a local distance metric by adjusting the size and shape of the receptive field in which its predictions are valid, and also to detect relevant input features by adjusting its bias on the importance of individual input dimensions. We derive asymptotic results for our method. In a variety of simulations the properties of the algorithm are demonstrated with respect to interference, learning speed, prediction accuracy, feature detection, and task oriented incremental learning.

Most current methods for prediction of protein secondary structure use a small window of the protein sequence to predict the structure of the central amino acid. We describe a new method for prediction of the non-local structure called,8-sheet, which consists of two or more,8-strands that are connected by hydrogen bonds. Since,8-strands are often widely separated in the protein chain, a network with two windows is introduced. After training on a set of proteins the network predicts the sheets well, but there are many false positives. Byusing a global energy function the,8-sheet prediction is combined with a local prediction of the three secondary structures a-helix,,8-strand and coil.

A stability criterion for dynamic parameter adaptation is given. In the case of the learning rate of backpropagation, a class of stable algorithms is presented and studied, including a convergence proof. 1 INTRODUCTION All but a few learning algorithms employ one or more parameters that control the quality of learning. Backpropagation has its learning rate and momentum parameter; Boltzmannlearning uses a simulated annealing schedule; Kohonen learning a learning rate and a decay parameter; genetic algorithms probabilities, etc. The investigator always has to set the parameters to specific values when trying to solve a certain problem. Traditionally, the metaproblem of adjusting the parameters is solved by relying on a set of well-tested values of other problems or an intensive search for good parameter regions by restarting the experiment with different values. Inthis situation, a great deal of expertise and/or time for experiment design is required (as well as a huge amount of computing time).

We introduce a constructive, incremental learning system for regression problems that models data by means of locally linear experts. In contrast to other approaches, the experts are trained independently and do not compete for data during learning. Only when a prediction for a query is required do the experts cooperate by blending their individual predictions. Eachexpert is trained by minimizing a penalized local cross validation errorusing second order methods. In this way, an expert is able to find a local distance metric by adjusting the size and shape of the receptive fieldin which its predictions are valid, and also to detect relevant input features by adjusting its bias on the importance of individual input dimensions. We derive asymptotic results for our method. In a variety of simulations the properties of the algorithm are demonstrated with respect to interference, learning speed, prediction accuracy, feature detection, and task oriented incremental learning.

"Family discovery" is the task of learning the dimension and structure ofa parameterized family of stochastic models. It is especially appropriatewhen the training examples are partitioned into "episodes" of samples drawn from a single parameter value. We present three family discovery algorithms based on surface learning andshow that they significantly improve performance over two alternatives on a parameterized classification task. 1 INTRODUCTION Human listeners improve their ability to recognize speech by identifying the accent of the speaker. "Might" in an American accent is similar to "mate" in an Australian accent. By first identifying the accent, discrimination between these two words is improved.