A new approach for clustering is proposed. This method is based on an analogy to a physical model; the ferromagnetic Potts model at thermal equilibrium is used as an analog computer for this hard optimization problem. We do not assume any structure of the underlying distribution of the data. Phase space of the Potts model is divided into three regions; ferromagnetic, super-paramagnetic and paramagnetic phases. The region of interest is that corresponding to the super-paramagnetic one, where domains of aligned spins appear.

A theory of early stopping as applied to linear models is presented. The backpropagation learning algorithm is modeled as gradient descent in continuous time. Given a training set and a validation set, all weight vectors found by early stopping must lie on a certain quadric surface, usually an ellipsoid. Given a training set and a candidate early stopping weight vector, all validation sets have least-squares weights lying on a certain plane. This latter fact can be exploited to estimate the probability of stopping at any given point along the trajectory from the initial weight vector to the leastsquares weights derived from the training set, and to estimate the probability that training goes on indefinitely. The prospects for extending this theory to nonlinear models are discussed.

In this setting, each pattern, represented as an n-dimensional feature vector, is associated with a discrete pattern class, or state of nature (Duda and Hart, 1973). Using available information, (e.g., a statistically representative set of labeled feature vectors

In this paper, recursive estimation algorithms for dynamic modular networks are developed. The models are based on Gaussian RBF networks and the gating network is considered in two stages: At first, it is simply a time-varying scalar and in the second, it is based on the state, as in the mixture of local experts scheme. The resulting algorithm uses Kalman filter estimation for the model estimation and the gating probability estimation. Both, 'hard' and'soft' competition based estimation schemes are developed where in the former, the most probable network is adapted and in the latter all networks are adapted by appropriate weighting of the data. 1 INTRODUCTION The problem of learning multiple modes in a complex nonlinear system is increasingly being studied by various researchers [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], The use of a mixture of local experts [5, 6], and a conditional mixture density network [3] have been developed to model various modes of a system. The development has mainly been on model estimation from a given set of block data, with the model likelihood dependent on the input to the networks.

A new technique, termed soft assign, is applied for the first time to two classic combinatorial optimization problems, the traveling salesman problem and graph partitioning. Soft assign, which has emerged from the recurrent neural network/statistical physics framework, enforces two-way (assignment) constraints without the use of penalty terms in the energy functions. The soft assign can also be generalized from two-way winner-take-all constraints to multiple membership constraints which are required for graph partitioning. The soft assign technique is compared to the softmax (Potts glass). Within the statistical physics framework, softmax and a penalty term has been a widely used method for enforcing the two-way constraints common within many combinatorial optimization problems.

A new learning algorithm is developed for the design of statistical classifiers minimizing the rate of misclassification. The method, which is based on ideas from information theory and analogies to statistical physics, assigns data to classes in probability. The distributions are chosen to minimize the expected classification error while simultaneously enforcing the classifier's structure and a level of "randomness" measured by Shannon's entropy. Achievement of the classifier structure is quantified by an associated cost. The constrained optimization problem is equivalent to the minimization of a Helmholtz free energy, and the resulting optimization method is a basic extension of the deterministic annealing algorithm that explicitly enforces structural constraints on assignments while reducing the entropy and expected cost with temperature. In the limit of low temperature, the error rate is minimized directly and a hard classifier with the requisite structure is obtained. This learning algorithm can be used to design a variety of classifier structures. The approach is compared with standard methods for radial basis function design and is demonstrated to substantially outperform other design methods on several benchmark examples, while often retaining design complexity comparable to, or only moderately greater than that of strict descent-based methods.

We consider the problem of online gradient descent learning for general two-layer neural networks. An analytic solution is presented and used to investigate the role of the learning rate in controlling the evolution and convergence of the learning process. Two-layer networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units have been shown to be universal approximators [1] for such N-to-one dimensional maps. We investigate the emergence of generalization ability in an online learning scenario [2], in which the couplings are modified after the presentation of each example so as to minimize the corresponding error. The resulting changes in {J} are described as a dynamical evolution; the number of examples plays the role of time.

We introduce a constructive, incremental learning system for regression problems that models data by means of locally linear experts. In contrast to other approaches, the experts are trained independently and do not compete for data during learning. Only when a prediction for a query is required do the experts cooperate by blending their individual predictions. Each expert is trained by minimizing a penalized local cross validation error using second order methods. In this way, an expert is able to find a local distance metric by adjusting the size and shape of the receptive field in which its predictions are valid, and also to detect relevant input features by adjusting its bias on the importance of individual input dimensions. We derive asymptotic results for our method. In a variety of simulations the properties of the algorithm are demonstrated with respect to interference, learning speed, prediction accuracy, feature detection, and task oriented incremental learning.

In this paper we introduce new algorithms for optimizing noisy plants in which each experiment is very expensive. The algorithms build a global nonlinear model of the expected output at the same time as using Bayesian linear regression analysis of locally weighted polynomial models. The local model answers queries about confidence, noise, gradient and Hessians, and use them to make automated decisions similar to those made by a practitioner of Response Surface Methodology. The global and local models are combined naturally as a locally weighted regression. We examine the question of whether the global model can really help optimization, and we extend it to the case of time-varying functions. We compare the new algorithms with a highly tuned higher-order stochastic optimization algorithm on randomly-generated functions and a simulated manufacturing task. We note significant improvements in total regret, time to converge, and final solution quality. 1 INTRODUCTION In a stochastic optimization problem, noisy samples are taken from a plant. A sample consists of a chosen control u (a vector ofreal numbers) and a noisy observed response y.

Our goal is to predict the class membership of an observation with predictor vector Xo Nearest neighbor classification is a simple and appealing approach to this problem.