The classes in classification tasks often have a natural ordering, and the training and testing examples are often incomplete. We propose a nonlinear ordinalmodel for classification into ordered classes. Predictive, simulation-based approaches are used to learn from past and classify future incompleteexamples. These techniques are illustrated by making prognoses for patients who have suffered severe head injuries.

This paper describes a new technique for object recognition based on learning appearance models. The image is decomposed into local regions which are described by a new texture representation called "Generalized Second Moments" thatare derived from the output of multiscale, multiorientation filter banks. Class-characteristic local texture features and their global composition is learned by a hierarchical mixture of experts architecture (Jordan & Jacobs). The technique is applied to a vehicle database consisting of 5 general car categories (Sedan, Van with backdoors, Van without backdoors, old Sedan, and Volkswagen Bug). This is a difficult problem with considerable in-class variation. The new technique has a 6.5% misclassification rate, compared to eigen-images which give 17.4% misclassification rate, and nearest neighbors which give 15 .7%

Machine-learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (1) the improvement of classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (2) methods for scaling up supervised learning algorithms, (3) reinforcement learning, and (4) the learning of complex stochastic models.

We study numerically the properties of the bayesian perceptron through a gradient descent on the optimal cost function. The theoretical distribution of stabilities is deduced. It predicts that the optimal generalizer lies close to the boundary of the space of (error-free) solutions. The numerical simulations are in good agreement with the theoretical distribution. The extrapolation of the generalization error to infinite input space size agrees with the theoretical results. Finite size corrections are negative and exhibit two different scaling regimes, depending on the training set size. The variance of the generalization error vanishes for $N \rightarrow \infty$ confirming the property of self-averaging.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is being challenged to perform more frequent and intensive space-exploration missions at greatly reduced cost. Nowhere is this challenge more acute than among robotic planetary exploration missions that the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) conducts for NASA. This article describes recent and ongoing work on spacecraft autonomy and ground systems that builds on a legacy of existing success at JPL applying AI techniques to challenging computational problems in planning and scheduling, real-time monitoring and control, scientific data analysis, and design automation.

Instance-based learning techniques typically handle continuous and linear input values well, but often do not handle nominal input attributes appropriately. The Value Difference Metric (VDM) was designed to find reasonable distance values between nominal attribute values, but it largely ignores continuous attributes, requiring discretization to map continuous values into nominal values. This paper proposes three new heterogeneous distance functions, called the Heterogeneous Value Difference Metric (HVDM), the Interpolated Value Difference Metric (IVDM), and the Windowed Value Difference Metric (WVDM). These new distance functions are designed to handle applications with nominal attributes, continuous attributes, or both. In experiments on 48 applications the new distance metrics achieve higher classification accuracy on average than three previous distance functions on those datasets that have both nominal and continuous attributes.

A new technique, termed soft assign, is applied for the first time to two classic combinatorial optimization problems, the traveling salesman problem and graph partitioning. Soft assign, which has emerged from the recurrent neural network/statistical physics framework, enforces two-way (assignment) constraints without the use of penalty terms in the energy functions. The soft assign can also be generalized from two-way winner-take-all constraints to multiple membership constraints which are required for graph partitioning. The soft assign technique is compared to the softmax (Potts glass). Within the statistical physics framework, softmax and a penalty term has been a widely used method for enforcing the two-way constraints common within many combinatorial optimization problems.

By applying a likelihood splitting criteria to each expert in the HME we "grow" the tree adaptively during training. Secondly, by considering only the most probable path through the tree we may "prune" branches away, either temporarily, or permanently if they become redundant. We demonstrate results for the growing and path pruning algorithms which show significant speed ups and more efficient use of parameters over the standard fixed structure in discriminating between two interlocking spirals and classifying 8-bit parity patterns. INTRODUCTION The HME (Jordan & Jacobs 1994) is a tree structured network whose terminal nodes are simple function approximators in the case of regression or classifiers in the case of classification. The outputs of the terminal nodes or experts are recursively combined upwards towards the root node, to form the overall output of the network, by "gates" which are situated at the non-terminal nodes.

A new approach for clustering is proposed. This method is based on an analogy to a physical model; the ferromagnetic Potts model at thermal equilibrium is used as an analog computer for this hard optimization problem. We do not assume any structure of the underlying distribution of the data. Phase space of the Potts model is divided into three regions; ferromagnetic, super-paramagnetic and paramagnetic phases. The region of interest is that corresponding to the super-paramagnetic one, where domains of aligned spins appear.

A theory of early stopping as applied to linear models is presented. The backpropagation learning algorithm is modeled as gradient descent in continuous time. Given a training set and a validation set, all weight vectors found by early stopping must lie on a certain quadric surface, usually an ellipsoid. Given a training set and a candidate early stopping weight vector, all validation sets have least-squares weights lying on a certain plane. This latter fact can be exploited to estimate the probability of stopping at any given point along the trajectory from the initial weight vector to the leastsquares weights derived from the training set, and to estimate the probability that training goes on indefinitely. The prospects for extending this theory to nonlinear models are discussed.