Real-world applications of machine learning models are often subject to legal or policy-based regulations. Some of these regulations require ensuring the validity of the model, i.e., the approximation error being smaller than a threshold. A global metric is generally too insensitive to determine the validity of a specific prediction, whereas evaluating local validity is costly since it requires gathering additional data.We propose learning the model error to acquire a local validity estimate while reducing the amount of required data through active learning. Using model validation benchmarks, we provide empirical evidence that the proposed method can lead to an error model with sufficient discriminative properties using a relatively small amount of data. Furthermore, an increased sensitivity to local changes of the validity bounds compared to alternative approaches is demonstrated.

Interest in bilevel optimization has grown in recent years, partially due to its applications to tackle challenging machine-learning problems. Several exciting recent works have been centered around developing efficient gradient-based algorithms that can solve bilevel optimization problems with provable guarantees. However, the existing literature mainly focuses on bilevel problems either without constraints, or featuring only simple constraints that do not couple variables across the upper and lower levels, excluding a range of complex applications. Our paper studies this challenging but less explored scenario and develops a (fully) first-order algorithm, which we term BLOCC, to tackle BiLevel Optimization problems with Coupled Constraints. We establish rigorous convergence theory for the proposed algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness on two well-known real-world applications - hyperparameter selection in support vector machine (SVM) and infrastructure planning in transportation networks using the real data from the city of Seville.

Emotional Voice Messages (EMOVOME) is a spontaneous speech dataset containing 999 audio messages from real conversations on a messaging app from 100 Spanish speakers, gender balanced. Voice messages were produced in-the-wild conditions before participants were recruited, avoiding any conscious bias due to laboratory environment. Audios were labeled in valence and arousal dimensions by three non-experts and two experts, which were then combined to obtain a final label per dimension. The experts also provided an extra label corresponding to seven emotion categories. To set a baseline for future investigations using EMOVOME, we implemented emotion recognition models using both speech and audio transcriptions. For speech, we used the standard eGeMAPS feature set and support vector machines, obtaining 49.27% and 44.71% unweighted accuracy for valence and arousal respectively. For text, we fine-tuned a multilingual BERT model and achieved 61.15% and 47.43% unweighted accuracy for valence and arousal respectively. This database will significantly contribute to research on emotion recognition in the wild, while also providing a unique natural and freely accessible resource for Spanish.

This paper presents a review on methods for class-imbalanced learning with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and its variants. We first explain the structure of SVM and its variants and discuss their inefficiency in learning with class-imbalanced data sets. We introduce a hierarchical categorization of SVM-based models with respect to class-imbalanced learning. Specifically, we categorize SVM-based models into re-sampling, algorithmic, and fusion methods, and discuss the principles of the representative models in each category. In addition, we conduct a series of empirical evaluations to compare the performances of various representative SVM-based models in each category using benchmark imbalanced data sets, ranging from low to high imbalanced ratios. Our findings reveal that while algorithmic methods are less time-consuming owing to no data pre-processing requirements, fusion methods, which combine both re-sampling and algorithmic approaches, generally perform the best, but with a higher computational load. A discussion on research gaps and future research directions is provided.

The consistency of a learning method is usually established under the assumption that the observations are a realization of an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) or mixing process. Yet, kernel methods such as support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian processes, or conditional kernel mean embeddings (CKMEs) all give excellent performance under sampling schemes that are obviously non-i.i.d., such as when data comes from a dynamical system. We propose the new notion of empirical weak convergence (EWC) as a general assumption explaining such phenomena for kernel methods. It assumes the existence of a random asymptotic data distribution and is a strict weakening of previous assumptions in the field. Our main results then establish consistency of SVMs, kernel mean embeddings, and general Hilbert-space valued empirical expectations with EWC data. Our analysis holds for both finite- and infinite-dimensional outputs, as we extend classical results of statistical learning to the latter case. In particular, it is also applicable to CKMEs. Overall, our results open new classes of processes to statistical learning and can serve as a foundation for a theory of learning beyond i.i.d. and mixing.

These authors contributed equally to this work. Abstract The relationship between energy demand and variables such as economic activity and weather is well established. However, this paper aims to explore the connection between energy demand and other social aspects, which receive little attention. Through the use of natural language processing on a large news corpus, we shed light on this important link. This study was carried out in five regions of the UK and Ireland and considers multiple horizons from 1 to 30 days. It also considers economic variables such as GDP, unemployment and inflation. We found that: 1) News about military conflicts, transportation, the global pandemic, regional economics, and the international energy market are related to electricity demand. Electricity demand modelling is a fundamental process in power system planning, operation, and energy trading [1]. In order to avoid additional carbon emissions from excess electricity generation and the high costs of electricity storage, electricity demand and supply should be matched over time [2]. Demand forecasting has become a means of enabling power dispatch, planning generation schedules, and integrating renewable energy sources [3]. Electricity demand forecasting is linked to various factors, including weather, economic activity, and major events.

The openness and transparency of Ethereum transaction data make it easy to be exploited by any entities, executing malicious attacks. The sandwich attack manipulates the Automated Market Maker (AMM) mechanism, profiting from manipulating the market price through front or after-running transactions. To identify and prevent sandwich attacks, we propose a cascade classification framework GasTrace. GasTrace analyzes various transaction features to detect malicious accounts, notably through the analysis and modeling of Gas features. In the initial classification, we utilize the Support Vector Machine (SVM) with the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel to generate the predicted probabilities of accounts, further constructing a detailed transaction network. Subsequently, the behavior features are captured by the Graph Attention Network (GAT) technique in the second classification. Through cascade classification, GasTrace can analyze and classify the sandwich attacks. Our experimental results demonstrate that GasTrace achieves a remarkable detection and generation capability, performing an accuracy of 96.73% and an F1 score of 95.71% for identifying sandwich attack accounts.

This work presents the first large-scale neutral benchmark experiment focused on single-event, right-censored, low-dimensional survival data. Benchmark experiments are essential in methodological research to scientifically compare new and existing model classes through proper empirical evaluation. Existing benchmarks in the survival literature are often narrow in scope, focusing, for example, on high-dimensional data. Additionally, they may lack appropriate tuning or evaluation procedures, or are qualitative reviews, rather than quantitative comparisons. This comprehensive study aims to fill the gap by neutrally evaluating a broad range of methods and providing generalizable conclusions. We benchmark 18 models, ranging from classical statistical approaches to many common machine learning methods, on 32 publicly available datasets. The benchmark tunes for both a discrimination measure and a proper scoring rule to assess performance in different settings. Evaluating on 8 survival metrics, we assess discrimination, calibration, and overall predictive performance of the tested models. Using discrimination measures, we find that no method significantly outperforms the Cox model. However, (tuned) Accelerated Failure Time models were able to achieve significantly better results with respect to overall predictive performance as measured by the right-censored log-likelihood. Machine learning methods that performed comparably well include Oblique Random Survival Forests under discrimination, and Cox-based likelihood-boosting under overall predictive performance. We conclude that for predictive purposes in the standard survival analysis setting of low-dimensional, right-censored data, the Cox Proportional Hazards model remains a simple and robust method, sufficient for practitioners.

Electroencephalographic signals are represented as multidimensional datasets. We introduce an enhancement to the augmented covariance method (ACM), exploiting more thoroughly its mathematical properties, in order to improve motor imagery classification.Standard ACM emerges as a combination of phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems and of Riemannian geometry. Indeed, it is based on the construction of a Symmetric Positive Definite matrix to improve classification. But this matrix also has a Block-Toeplitz structure that was previously ignored. This work treats such matrices in the real manifold to which they belong: the set of Block-Toeplitz SPD matrices. After some manipulation, this set is can be seen as the product of an SPD manifold and a Siegel Disk Space.The proposed methodology was tested using the MOABB framework with a within-session evaluation procedure. It achieves a similar classification performance to ACM, which is typically better than -- or at worse comparable to -- state-of-the-art methods. But, it also improves consequently the computational efficiency over ACM, making it even more suitable for real time experiments.

Finite-sum optimization has wide applications in machine learning, covering important problems such as support vector machines, regression, etc. In this paper, we initiate the study of solving finite-sum optimization problems by quantum computing. Specifically, let $f_1,\ldots,f_n\colon\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}$ be $\ell$-smooth convex functions and $\psi\colon\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}$ be a $\mu$-strongly convex proximal function. The goal is to find an $\epsilon$-optimal point for $F(\mathbf{x})=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n f_i(\mathbf{x})+\psi(\mathbf{x})$. We give a quantum algorithm with complexity $\tilde{O}\big(n+\sqrt{d}+\sqrt{\ell/\mu}\big(n^{1/3}d^{1/3}+n^{-2/3}d^{5/6}\big)\big)$, improving the classical tight bound $\tilde{\Theta}\big(n+\sqrt{n\ell/\mu}\big)$. We also prove a quantum lower bound $\tilde{\Omega}(n+n^{3/4}(\ell/\mu)^{1/4})$ when $d$ is large enough. Both our quantum upper and lower bounds can extend to the cases where $\psi$ is not necessarily strongly convex, or each $f_i$ is Lipschitz but not necessarily smooth. In addition, when $F$ is nonconvex, our quantum algorithm can find an $\epsilon$-critial point using $\tilde{O}(n+\ell(d^{1/3}n^{1/3}+\sqrt{d})/\epsilon^2)$ queries.