An unsolved issue in widely used methods such as Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) and Small Sphere and Large Margin SVM (SSLM) for anomaly detection is their nonconvexity, which hampers the analysis of optimal solutions in a manner similar to SVMs and limits their applicability in large-scale scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel convex SSLM formulation which has been demonstrated to revert to a convex quadratic programming problem for hyperparameter values of interest. Leveraging the convexity of our method, we derive numerous results that are unattainable with traditional nonconvex approaches. We conduct a thorough analysis of how hyperparameters influence the optimal solution, pointing out scenarios where optimal solutions can be trivially found and identifying instances of ill-posedness. Most notably, we establish connections between our method and traditional approaches, providing a clear determination of when the optimal solution is unique -- a task unachievable with traditional nonconvex methods. We also derive the {\nu}-property to elucidate the interactions between hyperparameters and the fractions of support vectors and margin errors in both positive and negative classes.

Binary classification is a fundamental task in machine learning and data science, with applications spanning numerous domains, including spam detection, medical diagnostics, image recognition, credit scoring. The goal is to predict a binary outcome--typically labeled as 0 or 1--based on a set of input features. Various machine learning algorithms, such as logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), support vector machines (SVM), and neural network (NN), are commonly employed for binary classification tasks. These algorithms can be mainly divided into two categories: those with interpretability, which are convenient for analysis and control (e.g., LR); and those without interpretability but with potentially good classification performance (e.g., NN). Ensemble learning, a powerful technique in predictive modeling, has gained widespread recognition for its ability to improve model performance by combining the strengths of multiple learning algorithms [1]. Among ensemble methods, stacking stands out by integrating the predictions of diverse base models (different learning algorithms) through a meta-model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy compared to only using the best base model [2]. Stacking has demonstrated significant applications in classification problems such as network intrusion detection [3, 4], cancer type classification [5], credit lending [6], and protein-protein binding affinity prediction [7].

The training of classification models for fault diagnosis tasks using geographically dispersed data is a crucial task for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) seeking to provide long-term service contracts (LTSCs) to their customers. Due to privacy and bandwidth constraints, such models must be trained in a federated fashion. Moreover, due to harsh industrial settings the data often suffers from feature and label uncertainty. Therefore, we study the problem of training a distributionally robust (DR) support vector machine (SVM) in a federated fashion over a network comprised of a central server and $G$ clients without sharing data. We consider the setting where the local data of each client $g$ is sampled from a unique true distribution $\mathbb{P}_g$, and the clients can only communicate with the central server. We propose a novel Mixture of Wasserstein Balls (MoWB) ambiguity set that relies on local Wasserstein balls centered at the empirical distribution of the data at each client. We study theoretical aspects of the proposed ambiguity set, deriving its out-of-sample performance guarantees and demonstrating that it naturally allows for the separability of the DR problem. Subsequently, we propose two distributed optimization algorithms for training the global FDR-SVM: i) a subgradient method-based algorithm, and ii) an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM)-based algorithm. We derive the optimization problems to be solved by each client and provide closed-form expressions for the computations performed by the central server during each iteration for both algorithms. Finally, we thoroughly examine the performance of the proposed algorithms in a series of numerical experiments utilizing both simulation data and popular real-world datasets.

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

One of the major difficulties in machine learning methods is categorizing datasets that are imbalanced. This problem may lead to biased models, where the training process is dominated by the majority class, resulting in inadequate representation of the minority class. Universum twin support vector machine (UTSVM) produces a biased model towards the majority class, as a result, its performance on the minority class is often poor as it might be mistakenly classified as noise. Moreover, UTSVM is not proficient in handling datasets that contain outliers and noises. Inspired by the concept of incorporating prior information about the data and employing an intuitionistic fuzzy membership scheme, we propose intuitionistic fuzzy universum twin support vector machines for imbalanced data (IFUTSVM-ID). We use an intuitionistic fuzzy membership scheme to mitigate the impact of noise and outliers. Moreover, to tackle the problem of imbalanced class distribution, data oversampling and undersampling methods are utilized. Prior knowledge about the data is provided by universum data. This leads to better generalization performance. UTSVM is susceptible to overfitting risks due to the omission of the structural risk minimization (SRM) principle in their primal formulations. However, the proposed IFUTSVM-ID model incorporates the SRM principle through the incorporation of regularization terms, effectively addressing the issue of overfitting. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed IFUTSVM-ID model on benchmark datasets from KEEL and compare it with existing baseline models. Furthermore, to assess the effectiveness of the proposed IFUTSVM-ID model in diagnosing Alzheimer's disease (AD), we applied them to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset. Experimental results showcase the superiority of the proposed IFUTSVM-ID models compared to the baseline models.

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model often learns spurious, non-causal associations. This paper proposes mechanism learning, a simple method which uses front-door causal bootstrapping to deconfound observational data such that any appropriate ML model is forced to learn predictive relationships between effects and their causes (reverse causal inference), despite the potential presence of multiple unknown and unmeasured confounding. Effect variables can be very high dimensional, and the predictive relationship nonlinear, as is common in ML applications. This novel method is widely applicable, the only requirement is the existence of a mechanism variable mediating the cause (prediction target) and effect (feature data), which is independent of the (unmeasured) confounding variables. We test our method on fully synthetic, semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that it can discover reliable, unbiased, causal ML predictors where by contrast, the same ML predictor trained naively using classical supervised learning on the original observational data, is heavily biased by spurious associations. We provide code to implement the results in the paper, online.

In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the classification problem of "which set of events has a higher impact on the chances of winning a match". Here, we notice that the previously published results include the Goal-Scored event during the training phase, which produces inconsistencies. We fix these inconsistencies, and show new weights capable of solving the same problem. Following the intuition that the best team should always win a match, we define the team's quality as the average number of players involved in the game. We show that, using the original PlayeRank, in 94.13\% of the matches either the superior team beats the inferior team or the teams end tied if the scores are similar. Finally, we present a way to use PlayeRank in an online fashion using modified free analysis tools. Calculating this modified version of PlayeRank, we performed an online analysis of a real football match every five minutes of game. Here, we evaluate the usefulness of that information with experts and managers, and conclude that the obtained data indeed provides useful information that was not previously available to the manager during the match.

Educational institutions are essential for economic and social development. Budget cuts in Brazil in recent years have made it difficult to carry out their activities and projects. In the case of expenses with water and electricity, unexpected situations can occur, such as leaks and equipment failures, which make their management challenging. This study proposes a comparison between two machine learning models, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), for water and electricity consumption forecasting at the Federal Institute of Paran\'a-Campus Palmas, with a 12-month forecasting horizon, as well as evaluating the influence of the application of climatic variables as exogenous features. The data were collected over the past five years, combining details pertaining to invoices with exogenous and endogenous variables. The two models had their hyperpa-rameters optimized using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) to select the individuals with the best fitness to perform the forecasting with and without climatic variables. The absolute percentage errors and root mean squared error were used as performance measures to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The results suggest that in forecasting water and electricity consumption over a 12-step horizon, the Random Forest model exhibited the most superior performance. The integration of climatic variables often led to diminished forecasting accuracy, resulting in higher errors. Both models still had certain difficulties in predicting water consumption, indicating that new studies with different models or variables are welcome.

The scrap-based electric arc furnace process is expected to capture a significant share of the steel market in the future due to its potential for reducing environmental impacts through steel recycling. However, managing impurities, particularly phosphorus, remains a challenge. This study aims to develop a machine learning model to estimate the steel phosphorus content at the end of the process based on input parameters. Data were collected over two years from a steel plant, focusing on the chemical composition and weight of the scrap, the volume of oxygen injected, and process duration. After preprocessing the data, several machine learning models were evaluated, with the artificial neural network (ANN) emerging as the most effective. The best ANN model included four hidden layers. The model was trained for 500 epochs with a batch size of 50. The best model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.000016, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.0049998, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 99.96%, and a correlation coefficient (r) of 99.98%. Notably, the model achieved a 100% hit rate for predicting phosphorus content within +-0.001 wt% (+-10 ppm). These results demonstrate that the optimized ANN model offers accurate predictions for the steel final phosphorus content.

Survival analysis is an important research topic with applications in healthcare, business, and manufacturing. One essential tool in this area is the Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model, which is widely used for its interpretability, flexibility, and predictive performance. However, for modern data science challenges such as high dimensionality (both $n$ and $p$) and high feature correlations, current algorithms to train the CPH model have drawbacks, preventing us from using the CPH model at its full potential. The root cause is that the current algorithms, based on the Newton method, have trouble converging due to vanishing second order derivatives when outside the local region of the minimizer. To circumvent this problem, we propose new optimization methods by constructing and minimizing surrogate functions that exploit hidden mathematical structures of the CPH model. Our new methods are easy to implement and ensure monotonic loss decrease and global convergence. Empirically, we verify the computational efficiency of our methods. As a direct application, we show how our optimization methods can be used to solve the cardinality-constrained CPH problem, producing very sparse high-quality models that were not previously practical to construct. We list several extensions that our breakthrough enables, including optimization opportunities, theoretical questions on CPH's mathematical structure, as well as other CPH-related applications.