Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The other approach is to use some post-processing methods for transforming the output of a classifier to be well calibrated, as for example histogram binning, Platt scaling, and isotonic regression. One advantage of the post-processing approach is that it can be applied to any existing probabilistic classification model that was constructed using any machine-learning method. In this paper, we first introduce two measures for evaluating how well a classifier is calibrated. We prove three theorems showing that using a simple histogram binning post-processing method, it is possible to make a classifier be well calibrated while retaining its discrimination capability. Also, by casting the histogram binning method as a density-based non-parametric binary classifier, we can extend it using two simple non-parametric density estimation methods. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed calibration methods on synthetic and real datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed methods either outperform or are comparable to existing calibration methods.

Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterated strategy or direct strategy. This study proposes a novel multiple-step-ahead time series prediction approach which employs multiple-output support vector regression (M-SVR) with multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) prediction strategy. In addition, the rank of three leading prediction strategies with SVR is comparatively examined, providing practical implications on the selection of the prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting while taking SVR as modeling technique. The proposed approach is validated with the simulated and real datasets. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of the prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results indicate that: 1) the M-SVR using MIMO strategy achieves the best accurate forecasts with accredited computational load, 2) the standard SVR using direct strategy achieves the second best accurate forecasts, but with the most expensive computational cost, and 3) the standard SVR using iterated strategy is the worst in terms of prediction accuracy, but with the least computational cost.

An accurate prediction of crude oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to governments, enterprises, and investors. This paper proposes a revised hybrid model built upon empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based on the feed-forward neural network (FNN) modeling framework incorporating the slope-based method (SBM), which is capable of capturing the complex dynamic of crude oil prices. Three commonly used multi-step-ahead prediction strategies proposed in the literature, including iterated strategy, direct strategy, and MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) strategy, are examined and compared, and practical considerations for the selection of a prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting relating to crude oil prices are identified. The weekly data from the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil spot price are used to compare the performance of the alternative models under the EMD-SBM-FNN modeling framework with selected counterparts. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed EMD-SBM-FNN model using the MIMO strategy is the best in terms of prediction accuracy with accredited computational load.

Today, with respect to the increasing growth of demand to get credit from the customers of banks and finance and credit institutions, using an effective and efficient method to decrease the risk of non-repayment of credit given is very necessary. Assessment of customers' credit is one of the most important and the most essential duties of banks and institutions, and if an error occurs in this field, it would leads to the great losses for banks and institutions. Thus, using the predicting computer systems has been significantly progressed in recent decades. The data that are provided to the credit institutions' managers help them to make a straight decision for giving the credit or not-giving it. In this paper, we will assess the customer credit through a combined classification using artificial neural networks, genetics algorithm and Bayesian probabilities simultaneously, and the results obtained from three methods mentioned above would be used to achieve an appropriate and final result. We use the K_folds cross validation test in order to assess the method and finally, we compare the proposed method with the methods such as Clustering-Launched Classification (CLC), Support Vector Machine (SVM) as well as GA+SVM where the genetics algorithm has been used to improve them.

When learning a new concept, not all training examples may prove equally useful for training: some may have higher or lower training value than others. The goal of this paper is to bring to the attention of the vision community the following considerations: (1) some examples are better than others for training detectors or classifiers, and (2) in the presence of better examples, some examples may negatively impact performance and removing them may be beneficial. In this paper, we propose an approach for measuring the training value of an example, and use it for ranking and greedily sorting examples. We test our methods on different vision tasks, models, datasets and classifiers. Our experiments show that the performance of current state-of-the-art detectors and classifiers can be improved when training on a subset, rather than the whole training set.

This paper presents a unified framework to tackle estimation problems in Digital Signal Processing (DSP) using Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The use of SVMs in estimation problems has been traditionally limited to its mere use as a black-box model. Noting such limitations in the literature, we take advantage of several properties of Mercer's kernels and functional analysis to develop a family of SVM methods for estimation in DSP. Three types of signal model equations are analyzed. First, when a specific time-signal structure is assumed to model the underlying system that generated the data, the linear signal model (so called Primal Signal Model formulation) is first stated and analyzed. Then, non-linear versions of the signal structure can be readily developed by following two different approaches. On the one hand, the signal model equation is written in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) using the well-known RKHS Signal Model formulation, and Mercer's kernels are readily used in SVM non-linear algorithms. On the other hand, in the alternative and not so common Dual Signal Model formulation, a signal expansion is made by using an auxiliary signal model equation given by a non-linear regression of each time instant in the observed time series. These building blocks can be used to generate different novel SVM-based methods for problems of signal estimation, and we deal with several of the most important ones in DSP. We illustrate the usefulness of this methodology by defining SVM algorithms for linear and non-linear system identification, spectral analysis, nonuniform interpolation, sparse deconvolution, and array processing. The performance of the developed SVM methods is compared to standard approaches in all these settings. The experimental results illustrate the generality, simplicity, and capabilities of the proposed SVM framework for DSP.

Screening is an effective technique for speeding up the training process of a sparse learning model by removing the features that are guaranteed to be inactive the process. In this paper, we present a efficient screening technique for sparse support vector machine based on variational inequality. The technique is both efficient and safe.

Training examples are not all equally informative. Active learning strategies leverage this observation in order to massively reduce the number of examples that need to be labeled. We leverage the same observation to build a generic strategy for parallelizing learning algorithms. This strategy is effective because the search for informative examples is highly parallelizable and because we show that its performance does not deteriorate when the sifting process relies on a slightly outdated model. Parallel active learning is particularly attractive to train nonlinear models with non-linear representations because there are few practical parallel learning algorithms for such models. We report preliminary experiments using both kernel SVMs and SGD-trained neural networks.

The support vector machine (SVM) is a widely used method for classification. Although many efforts have been devoted to develop efficient solvers, it remains challenging to apply SVM to large-scale problems. A nice property of SVM is that the non-support vectors have no effect on the resulting classifier. Motivated by this observation, we present fast and efficient screening rules to discard non-support vectors by analyzing the dual problem of SVM via variational inequalities (DVI). As a result, the number of data instances to be entered into the optimization can be substantially reduced. Some appealing features of our screening method are: (1) DVI is safe in the sense that the vectors discarded by DVI are guaranteed to be non-support vectors; (2) the data set needs to be scanned only once to run the screening, whose computational cost is negligible compared to that of solving the SVM problem; (3) DVI is independent of the solvers and can be integrated with any existing efficient solvers. We also show that the DVI technique can be extended to detect non-support vectors in the least absolute deviations regression (LAD). To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no screening methods for LAD. We have evaluated DVI on both synthetic and real data sets. Experiments indicate that DVI significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art screening rules for SVM, and is very effective in discarding non-support vectors for LAD. The speedup gained by DVI rules can be up to two orders of magnitude.

Conventional SVM-based image coding methods are founded on independently restricting the distortion in every image coefficient at some particular image representation. Geometrically, this implies allowing arbitrary signal distortions in an $n$-dimensional rectangle defined by the $\varepsilon$-insensitivity zone in each dimension of the selected image representation domain. Unfortunately, not every image representation domain is well-suited for such a simple, scalar-wise, approach because statistical and/or perceptual interactions between the coefficients may exist. These interactions imply that scalar approaches may induce distortions that do not follow the image statistics and/or are perceptually annoying. Taking into account these relations would imply using non-rectangular $\varepsilon$-insensitivity regions (allowing coupled distortions in different coefficients), which is beyond the conventional SVM formulation. In this paper, we report a condition on the suitable domain for developing efficient SVM image coding schemes. We analytically demonstrate that no linear domain fulfills this condition because of the statistical and perceptual inter-coefficient relations that exist in these domains. This theoretical result is experimentally confirmed by comparing SVM learning in previously reported linear domains and in a recently proposed non-linear perceptual domain that simultaneously reduces the statistical and perceptual relations (so it is closer to fulfilling the proposed condition). These results highlight the relevance of an appropriate choice of the image representation before SVM learning.