Abstract--This project presents an AI-based system for tone replication in music production, focusing on predicting EQ parameter settings directly from audio features. Unlike traditional audio-to-audio methods, our approach generates interpretable parameter values--such as EQ band gains--that musicians can further adjust in their workflow. Using a dataset of piano recordings with systematically varied EQ settings, we evaluate both regression and neural network models. Results show that our neural network model achieves highly accurate parameter predictions, with a mean squared error of 0.0216 on multi-band tasks. The proposed system enables practical, flexible, and automated tone matching for music producers, laying the foundation for future extensions to more complex audio effects.

LLM leaderboards often rely on single stochastic runs, but how many repetitions are required for reliable conclusions remains unclear. We re-evaluate eight state-of-the-art models on the AI4Math Benchmark with three independent runs per setting. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, domain-level marginal means, rank-instability analysis, and run-to-run reliability, we assessed the value of additional repetitions. Our findings shows that Single-run leaderboards are brittle: 10/12 slices (83\%) invert at least one pairwise rank relative to the three-run majority, despite a zero sign-flip rate for pairwise significance and moderate overall interclass correlation. Averaging runs yields modest SE shrinkage ($\sim$5\% from one to three) but large ranking gains; two runs remove $\sim$83\% of single-run inversions. We provide cost-aware guidance for practitioners: treat evaluation as an experiment, report uncertainty, and use $\geq 2$ repetitions under stochastic decoding. These practices improve robustness while remaining feasible for small teams and help align model comparisons with real-world reliability.

State-space models (SSMs), particularly Mamba, emerge as an efficient Transformer alternative with linear complexity for long-sequence modeling. Recent empirical works demonstrate Mamba's in-context learning (ICL) capabilities competitive with Transformers, a critical capacity for large foundation models. However, theoretical understanding of Mamba's ICL remains limited, restricting deeper insights into its underlying mechanisms. Even fundamental tasks such as linear regression ICL, widely studied as a standard theoretical benchmark for Transformers, have not been thoroughly analyzed in the context of Mamba. To address this gap, we study the training dynamics of Mamba on the linear regression ICL task. By developing novel techniques tackling non-convex optimization with gradient descent related to Mamba's structure, we establish an exponential convergence rate to ICL solution, and derive a loss bound that is comparable to Transformer's. Importantly, our results reveal that Mamba can perform a variant of \textit{online gradient descent} to learn the latent function in context. This mechanism is different from that of Transformer, which is typically understood to achieve ICL through gradient descent emulation. The theoretical results are verified by experimental simulation.

In regression and causal inference, controlled subgroup selection aims to identify, with inferential guarantees, a subgroup (defined as a subset of the covariate space) on which the average response or treatment effect is above a given threshold. E.g., in a clinical trial, it may be of interest to find a subgroup with a positive average treatment effect. However, existing methods either lack inferential guarantees, heavily restrict the search for the subgroup, or sacrifice efficiency by naive data splitting. We propose a novel framework called chiseling that allows the analyst to interactively refine and test a candidate subgroup by iteratively shrinking it. The sole restriction is that the shrinkage direction only depends on the points outside the current subgroup, but otherwise the analyst may leverage any prior information or machine learning algorithm. Despite this flexibility, chiseling controls the probability that the discovered subgroup is null (e.g., has a non-positive average treatment effect) under minimal assumptions: for example, in randomized experiments, this inferential validity guarantee holds under only bounded moment conditions. When applied to a variety of simulated datasets and a real survey experiment, chiseling identifies substantially better subgroups than existing methods with inferential guarantees.

We prove that all standard subregular language classes are linearly separable when represented by their deciding predicates. This establishes finite observability and guarantees learnability with simple linear models. Synthetic experiments confirm perfect separability under noise-free conditions, while real-data experiments on English morphology show that learned features align with well-known linguistic constraints. These results demonstrate that the subregular hierarchy provides a rigorous and interpretable foundation for modeling natural language structure. Our code used in real-data experiments is available at https://github.com/UTokyo-HayashiLab/subregular.

AI-powered companion chatbots (AICCs) such as Replika are increasingly popular, offering empathetic interactions, yet their psychosocial impacts remain unclear. We examined how engaging with AICCs shaped wellbeing and how users perceived these experiences. First, we conducted a large-scale quasi-experimental study of longitudinal Reddit data, applying stratified propensity score matching and Difference-in-Differences regression. Findings revealed mixed effects -- greater affective and grief expression, readability, and interpersonal focus, alongside increases in language about loneliness and suicidal ideation. Second, we complemented these results with 15 semi-structured interviews, which we thematically analyzed and contextualized using Knapp's relationship development model. We identified trajectories of initiation, escalation, and bonding, wherein AICCs provided emotional validation and social rehearsal but also carried risks of over-reliance and withdrawal. Triangulating across methods, we offer design implications for AI companions that scaffold healthy boundaries, support mindful engagement, support disclosure without dependency, and surface relationship stages -- maximizing psychosocial benefits while mitigating risks.

Symbolic regression discovers accurate and interpretable formulas to describe given data, thereby providing scientific insights for domain experts and promoting scientific discovery. However, existing symbolic regression methods often use complexity metrics as a proxy for interoperability, which only considers the size of the formula but ignores its internal mathematical structure. Therefore, while they can discover formulas with compact forms, the discovered formulas often have structures that are difficult to analyze or interpret mathematically. In this work, inspired by the observation that physical formulas are typically numerically stable under limited calculation precision, we propose the Effective Information Criterion (EIC). It treats formulas as information processing systems with specific internal structures and identifies the unreasonable structure in them by the loss of significant digits or the amplification of rounding noise as data flows through the system. We find that this criterion reveals the gap between the structural rationality of models discovered by existing symbolic regression algorithms and real-world physical formulas. Combining EIC with various search-based symbolic regression algorithms improves their performance on the Pareto frontier and reduces the irrational structure in the results. Combining EIC with generative-based algorithms reduces the number of samples required for pre-training, improving sample efficiency by 2~4 times. Finally, for different formulas with similar accuracy and complexity, EIC shows a 70.2% agreement with 108 human experts' preferences for formula interpretability, demonstrating that EIC, by measuring the unreasonable structures in formulas, actually reflects the formula's interpretability.

Understanding urban human mobility patterns at various spatial levels is essential for social science. This study presents a machine learning framework to downscale origin-destination (OD) taxi trips flows in New York City from a larger spatial unit to a smaller spatial unit. First, correlations between OD trips and demographic, socioeconomic, and commuting characteristics are developed using four models: Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Networks (NN). Second, a perturbation-based sensitivity analysis is applied to interpret variable importance for nonlinear models. The results show that the linear regression model failed to capture the complex variable interactions. While NN performs best with the training and testing datasets, SVM shows the best generalization ability in downscaling performance. The methodology presented in this study provides both analytical advancement and practical applications to improve transportation services and urban development.

Matched-pair experimental designs aim to detect treatment effects by pairing participants and comparing within-pair outcome differences. In many situations, the overall effect size across the entire population is small. Then, the focus naturally shifts to identifying and targeting high treatment-effect regions where the intervention is most effective. This paper proposes a matched-pair experimental design that sequentially and actively enrolls patients in high treatment-effect regions. Importantly, we frame the identification of the target region as a classification problem and propose an active learning framework tailored to matched-pair designs. Our design not only reduces the experimental cost of detecting treatment efficacy, but also ensures that the identified regions enclose the entire high-treatment-effect regions. Our theoretical analysis of the framework's label complexity and experiments in practical scenarios demonstrate the efficiency and advantages of the approach.

For overparameterized linear regression with isotropic Gaussian design and minimum-$\ell_p$ interpolator $p\in(1,2]$, we give a unified, high-probability characterization for the scaling of the family of parameter norms $ \\{ \lVert \widehat{w_p} \rVert_r \\}_{r \in [1,p]} $ with sample size. We solve this basic, but unresolved question through a simple dual-ray analysis, which reveals a competition between a signal *spike* and a *bulk* of null coordinates in $X^\top Y$, yielding closed-form predictions for (i) a data-dependent transition $n_\star$ (the "elbow"), and (ii) a universal threshold $r_\star=2(p-1)$ that separates $\lVert \widehat{w_p} \rVert_r$'s which plateau from those that continue to grow with an explicit exponent. This unified solution resolves the scaling of *all* $\ell_r$ norms within the family $r\in [1,p]$ under $\ell_p$-biased interpolation, and explains in one picture which norms saturate and which increase as $n$ grows. We then study diagonal linear networks (DLNs) trained by gradient descent. By calibrating the initialization scale $α$ to an effective $p_{\mathrm{eff}}(α)$ via the DLN separable potential, we show empirically that DLNs inherit the same elbow/threshold laws, providing a predictive bridge between explicit and implicit bias. Given that many generalization proxies depend on $\lVert \widehat {w_p} \rVert_r$, our results suggest that their predictive power will depend sensitively on which $l_r$ norm is used.