The paper describes an application of Aggregating Algorithm to the problem of regression. It generalizes earlier results concerned with plain linear regression to kernel techniques and presents an on-line algorithm which performs nearly as well as any oblivious kernel predictor. The paper contains the derivation of an estimate on the performance of this algorithm. The estimate is then used to derive an application of the Complexity Approximation Principle to kernel methods.

A new generalized multilinear regression model, termed the Higher-Order Partial Least Squares (HOPLS), is introduced with the aim to predict a tensor (multiway array) $\tensor{Y}$ from a tensor $\tensor{X}$ through projecting the data onto the latent space and performing regression on the corresponding latent variables. HOPLS differs substantially from other regression models in that it explains the data by a sum of orthogonal Tucker tensors, while the number of orthogonal loadings serves as a parameter to control model complexity and prevent overfitting. The low dimensional latent space is optimized sequentially via a deflation operation, yielding the best joint subspace approximation for both $\tensor{X}$ and $\tensor{Y}$. Instead of decomposing $\tensor{X}$ and $\tensor{Y}$ individually, higher order singular value decomposition on a newly defined generalized cross-covariance tensor is employed to optimize the orthogonal loadings. A systematic comparison on both synthetic data and real-world decoding of 3D movement trajectories from electrocorticogram (ECoG) signals demonstrate the advantages of HOPLS over the existing methods in terms of better predictive ability, suitability to handle small sample sizes, and robustness to noise.

In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and provide an output. Often these simulators are themselves expensive to compute, and may be approximated by "surrogate models" such as statistical regression models. In this paper we consider a new kind of surrogate model, a Bayesian ensemble of trees (Chipman et al. 2010), with the specific goal of learning enough about the simulator that a particular feature of the simulator can be estimated. We focus on identifying the simulator's global minimum. Utilizing the Bayesian version of the Expected Improvement criterion (Jones et al. 1998), we show that this ensemble is particularly effective when the simulator is ill-behaved, exhibiting nonstationarity or abrupt changes in the response. A number of illustrations of the approach are given, including a tidal power application.

We show how to reduce the process of predicting general order statistics (and the median in particular) to solving classification. The accompanying theoretical statement shows that the regret of the classifier bounds the regret of the quantile regression under a quantile loss. We also test this reduction empirically against existing quantile regression methods on large real-world datasets and discover that it provides state-of-the-art performance.

Conditional modeling x \to y is a central problem in machine learning. A substantial research effort is devoted to such modeling when x is high dimensional. We consider, instead, the case of a high dimensional y, where x is either low dimensional or high dimensional. Our approach is based on selecting a small subset y_L of the dimensions of y, and proceed by modeling (i) x \to y_L and (ii) y_L \to y. Composing these two models, we obtain a conditional model x \to y that possesses convenient statistical properties. Multi-label classification and multivariate regression experiments on several datasets show that this model outperforms the one vs. all approach as well as several sophisticated multiple output prediction methods.

In this paper we study output coding for multi-label prediction. For a multi-label output coding to be discriminative, it is important that codewords for different label vectors are significantly different from each other. In the meantime, unlike in traditional coding theory, codewords in output coding are to be predicted from the input, so it is also critical to have a predictable label encoding. To find output codes that are both discriminative and predictable, we first propose a max-margin formulation that naturally captures these two properties. We then convert it to a metric learning formulation, but with an exponentially large number of constraints as commonly encountered in structured prediction problems. Without a label structure for tractable inference, we use overgenerating (i.e., relaxation) techniques combined with the cutting plane method for optimization. In our empirical study, the proposed output coding scheme outperforms a variety of existing multi-label prediction methods for image, text and music classification.

We study the problem of multivariate regression where the data are naturally grouped, and a regression matrix is to be estimated for each group. We propose an approach in which a dictionary of low rank parameter matrices is estimated across groups, and a sparse linear combination of the dictionary elements is estimated to form a model within each group. We refer to the method as conditional sparse coding since it is a coding procedure for the response vectors Y conditioned on the covariate vectors X. This approach captures the shared information across the groups while adapting to the structure within each group. It exploits the same intuition behind sparse coding that has been successfully developed in computer vision and computational neuroscience. We propose an algorithm for conditional sparse coding, analyze its theoretical properties in terms of predictive accuracy, and present the results of simulation and brain imaging experiments that compare the new technique to reduced rank regression.

Functional neuroimaging can measure the brain?s response to an external stimulus. It is used to perform brain mapping: identifying from these observations the brain regions involved. This problem can be cast into a linear supervised learning task where the neuroimaging data are used as predictors for the stimulus. Brain mapping is then seen as a support recovery problem. On functional MRI (fMRI) data, this problem is particularly challenging as i) the number of samples is small due to limited acquisition time and ii) the variables are strongly correlated. We propose to overcome these difficulties using sparse regression models over new variables obtained by clustering of the original variables. The use of randomization techniques, e.g. bootstrap samples, and clustering of the variables improves the recovery properties of sparse methods. We demonstrate the benefit of our approach on an extensive simulation study as well as two fMRI datasets.

We introduce the nonparametric metadata dependent relational (NMDR) model, a Bayesian nonparametric stochastic block model for network data. The NMDR allows the entities associated with each node to have mixed membership in an unbounded collection of latent communities. Learned regression models allow these memberships to depend on, and be predicted from, arbitrary node metadata. We develop efficient MCMC algorithms for learning NMDR models from partially observed node relationships. Retrospective MCMC methods allow our sampler to work directly with the infinite stick-breaking representation of the NMDR, avoiding the need for finite truncations. Our results demonstrate recovery of useful latent communities from real-world social and ecological networks, and the usefulness of metadata in link prediction tasks.

In this work, we develop a simple algorithm for semi-supervised regression. The key idea is to use the top eigenfunctions of integral operator derived from both labeled and unlabeled examples as the basis functions and learn the prediction function by a simple linear regression. We show that under appropriate assumptions about the integral operator, this approach is able to achieve an improved regression error bound better than existing bounds of supervised learning. We also verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by an empirical study.