In this paper we analyze a budgeted learning setting, in which the learner can only choose and observe a small subset of the attributes of each training example. We develop efficient algorithms for ridge and lasso linear regression, which utilize the geometry of the data by a novel data-dependent sampling scheme. When the learner has prior knowledge on the second moments of the attributes, the optimal sampling probabilities can be calculated precisely, and result in data-dependent improvements factors for the excess risk over the state-of-the-art that may be as large as $O(\sqrt{d})$, where $d$ is the problem's dimension. Moreover, under reasonable assumptions our algorithms can use less attributes than full-information algorithms, which is the main concern in budgeted learning settings. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first algorithms able to do so in our setting. Where no such prior knowledge is available, we develop a simple estimation technique that given a sufficient amount of training examples, achieves similar improvements. We complement our theoretical analysis with experiments on several data sets which support our claims.

We propose a new active learning algorithm for parametric linear regression with random design. We provide finite sample convergence guarantees for general distributions in the misspecified model. This is the first active learner for this setting that provably can improve over passive learning. Unlike other learning settings (such as classification), in regression the passive learning rate of $O(1/\epsilon)$ cannot in general be improved upon. Nonetheless, the so-called `constant' in the rate of convergence, which is characterized by a distribution-dependent risk, can be improved in many cases. For a given distribution, achieving the optimal risk requires prior knowledge of the distribution. Following the stratification technique advocated in Monte-Carlo function integration, our active learner approaches the optimal risk using piecewise constant approximations.

The use of M-estimators in generalized linear regression models in high dimensional settings requires risk minimization with hard $L_0$ constraints. Of the known methods, the class of projected gradient descent (also known as iterative hard thresholding (IHT)) methods is known to offer the fastest and most scalable solutions. However, the current state-of-the-art is only able to analyze these methods in extremely restrictive settings which do not hold in high dimensional statistical models. In this work we bridge this gap by providing the first analysis for IHT-style methods in the high dimensional statistical setting. Our bounds are tight and match known minimax lower bounds. Our results rely on a general analysis framework that enables us to analyze several popular hard thresholding style algorithms (such as HTP, CoSaMP, SP) in the high dimensional regression setting. We also extend our analysis to a large family of "fully corrective methods" that includes two-stage and partial hard-thresholding algorithms. We show that our results hold for the problem of sparse regression, as well as low-rank matrix recovery.

Logistic regression models with $n$ observations and $q$ linearly-independent covariates are shown to have Fisher information volumes which are bounded below by $\pi^q$ and above by ${n \choose q} \pi^q$. This is proved with a novel generalization of the classical theorems of Pythagoras and de Gua, which is of independent interest. The finding that the volume is always finite is new, and it implies that the volume can be directly interpreted as a measure of model complexity. The volume is shown to be a continuous function of the design matrix $X$ at generic $X$, but to be discontinuous in general. This means that models with sparse design matrices can be significantly less complex than nearby models, so the resulting model-selection criterion prefers sparse models. This is analogous to the way that $\ell^1$-regularisation tends to prefer sparse model fits, though in our case this behaviour arises spontaneously from general principles. Lastly, an unusual topological duality is shown to exist between the ideal boundaries of the natural and expectation parameter spaces of logistic regression models.

Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have $0$ components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no "exact" screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using synthetic and real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective in identifying inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso.

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like renewable energy. The model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic VAR-TARCH with wind power, solar power, and load as influences on the time series. It is able to map the distinct and well-known features of electricity prices in Germany. An efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation. Moreover, it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper.

Regularized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Usually the low-dimensional structure is encoded by the presence of the (unknown) parameters in some low-dimensional model subspace. In such settings, it is desirable for estimates of the model parameters to be \emph{model selection consistent}: the estimates also fall in the model subspace. We develop a general framework for establishing consistency and model selection consistency of regularized M-estimators and show how it applies to some special cases of interest in statistical learning. Our analysis identifies two key properties of regularized M-estimators, referred to as geometric decomposability and irrepresentability, that ensure the estimators are consistent and model selection consistent.

Mach Learn manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract In this paper, we consider a supervised learning setting where side knowledge is provided about the labels of unlabeled examples. The side knowledge has the effect of reducing the hypothesis space, leading to tighter generalization bounds, and thus possibly better generalization. We consider several types of side knowledge, the first leading to linear and polygonal constraints on the hypothesis space, the second leading to quadratic constraints, and the last leading to conic constraints. We show how different types of domain knowledge can lead directly to these kinds of side knowledge. We prove bounds on complexity measures of the hypothesis space for quadratic and conic side knowledge, and show that these bounds are tight in a specific sense for the quadratic case. Keywords statistical learning theory · generalization bounds · Rademacher complexity · covering numbers, constrained linear function classes · side knowledge 1 Introduction Surely, for many applications the amount of domain knowledge we could potentially use within our learning processes is vastly larger than the amount of domain knowledge we actually use. One reason for this is that domain knowledge may be nontrivial to incorporate into algorithms or analysis. For example, researchers in NLP (Natural Language Processing) have long figured out various exotic domain specific knowledge that one can use while performing a learning task [Chang et al., 2008a,b]. The present work aims to provide theoretical guarantees for a large class of problems with a general type of domain knowledge that goes beyond sparsity and smoothness. To define this large class of problems, we will keep the usual supervised learning assumption that the training examples are drawn i.i.d.

For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic regression by adjusting the class balance locally in feature space via an accept-reject scheme. Our method generalizes standard case-control sampling, using a pilot estimate to preferentially select examples whose responses are conditionally rare given their features. The biased subsampling is corrected by a post-hoc analytic adjustment to the parameters. The method is simple and requires one parallelizable scan over the full data set. Standard case-control sampling is inconsistent under model misspecification for the population risk-minimizing coefficients $\theta^*$. By contrast, our estimator is consistent for $\theta^*$ provided that the pilot estimate is. Moreover, under correct specification and with a consistent, independent pilot estimate, our estimator has exactly twice the asymptotic variance of the full-sample MLE - even if the selected subsample comprises a miniscule fraction of the full data set, as happens when the original data are severely imbalanced. The factor of two improves to $1+\frac{1}{c}$ if we multiply the baseline acceptance probabilities by $c>1$ (and weight points with acceptance probability greater than 1), taking roughly $\frac{1+c}{2}$ times as many data points into the subsample. Experiments on simulated and real data show that our method can substantially outperform standard case-control subsampling.

This paper studies ordered weighted L1 (OWL) norm regularization for sparse estimation problems with strongly correlated variables. We prove sufficient conditions for clustering based on the correlation/colinearity of variables using the OWL norm, of which the so-called OSCAR is a particular case. Our results extend previous ones for OSCAR in several ways: for the squared error loss, our conditions hold for the more general OWL norm and under weaker assumptions; we also establish clustering conditions for the absolute error loss, which is, as far as we know, a novel result. Furthermore, we characterize the statistical performance of OWL norm regularization for generative models in which certain clusters of regression variables are strongly (even perfectly) correlated, but variables in different clusters are uncorrelated. We show that if the true p-dimensional signal generating the data involves only s of the clusters, then O(s log p) samples suffice to accurately estimate the signal, regardless of the number of coefficients within the clusters. The estimation of s-sparse signals with completely independent variables requires just as many measurements. In other words, using the OWL we pay no price (in terms of the number of measurements) for the presence of strongly correlated variables.