Survival analysis, the art of time-to-event modeling, plays an important role in clinical treatment decisions. Recently, continuous time models built from neural ODEs have been proposed for survival analysis. However, the training of neural ODEs is slow due to the high computational complexity of neural ODE solvers. Here, we propose an efficient alternative for flexible continuous time models, called Survival Mixture Density Networks (Survival MDNs). Survival MDN applies an invertible positive function to the output of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). While MDNs produce flexible real-valued distributions, the invertible positive function maps the model into the time-domain while preserving a tractable density. Using four datasets, we show that Survival MDN performs better than, or similarly to continuous and discrete time baselines on concordance, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood. Meanwhile, Survival MDNs are also faster than ODE-based models and circumvent binning issues in discrete models.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. Companies are trying to disrupt the technological and business market by introducing new and smart products and techniques in society by adopting new age-technologies like Artificial intelligence and Machine learning. Each organization is searching for well-talented and experienced people who can serve them on their demands. Today data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and computer vision engineers are more in-demand organizational roles. If you wish to apply and grab a job in the tech domain, it's crucial to know common machine learning interview questions that recruiters ask. The article covers some popular machine learning interview questions that will force you to think one step ahead of your knowledge, and you will like to encounter and achieve your dream job.

Residential buildings with the ability to monitor and control their net-load (sum of load and generation) can provide valuable flexibility to power grid operators. We present a novel multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) approach that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities at high-frequency with minimal additional equipment and cost. The proposed machine learning based solution provides accurate multiclass state predictions while operating at a faster timescale (able to provide a prediction for each 60-Hz ac cycle used in US power grid) without relying on event-detection techniques. We also introduce an innovative hybrid classification-regression method that allows for the prediction of not only load on/off states via classification but also individual load operating power levels via regression. A test bed with eight residential appliances is used for validating the NILM approach. Results show that the overall method has high accuracy and, good scaling and generalization properties. Furthermore, the method is shown to have sufficient response time (within 160ms, corresponding to 10 ac cycles) to support building grid-interactive control at fast timescales relevant to the provision of grid frequency support services.

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a ``responsibility score'' indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

We study solution methods for (strongly-)convex-(strongly)-concave Saddle-Point Problems (SPPs) over networks of two type - master/workers (thus centralized) architectures and meshed (thus decentralized) networks. The local functions at each node are assumed to be similar, due to statistical data similarity or otherwise. We establish lower complexity bounds for a fairly general class of algorithms solving the SPP. We show that a given suboptimality $\epsilon>0$ is achieved over master/workers networks in $\Omega\big(\Delta\cdot \delta/\mu\cdot \log (1/\varepsilon)\big)$ rounds of communications, where $\delta>0$ measures the degree of similarity of the local functions, $\mu$ is their strong convexity constant, and $\Delta$ is the diameter of the network. The lower communication complexity bound over meshed networks reads $\Omega\big(1/{\sqrt{\rho}} \cdot {\delta}/{\mu}\cdot\log (1/\varepsilon)\big)$, where $\rho$ is the (normalized) eigengap of the gossip matrix used for the communication between neighbouring nodes. We then propose algorithms matching the lower bounds over either types of networks (up to log-factors). We assess the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms on a robust logistic regression problem.

This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of penalized spline estimates of derivatives. In particular, we show that simply differentiating the penalized spline estimator of the mean regression function itself to estimate the corresponding derivative achieves the optimal L2 rate of convergence.

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications.

The advantages and difficulties of application of Pad\'e approximants to two-dimensional regression analysis are discussed. New formulation of residuals is suggested in the method of least squares. It leads to a system of linear equations in case of rational functions. The possibility of using Tikhonov regularization technique to avoid overfitting is demonstrated in this approach. To illustrate the efficiency of the suggested method, several practical cases from physics and reliability theory are considered.

Predicting mechanical properties in metal additive manufacturing (MAM) is vital to ensure the printed parts' performance, reliability, and whether they can fulfill requirements for a specific application. Conducting experiments to estimate mechanical properties in MAM processes, however, is a laborious and expensive task. Also, they can solely be designed for a particular material in a certain MAM process. Nonetheless, Machine learning (ML) methods, which are more flexible and cost-effective solutions, can be utilized to predict mechanical properties based on the processing parameters and material properties. To this end, in this work, a comprehensive framework for benchmarking ML for mechanical properties is introduced. An extensive experimental dataset is collected from more than 90 MAM articles and 140 MAM companies' data sheets containing MAM processing conditions, machines, materials, and resultant mechanical properties, including yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, elastic modulus, elongation, hardness as well as surface roughness. Physics-aware MAM featurization, adjustable ML models, and evaluation metrics are proposed to construct a comprehensive learning framework for mechanical properties prediction. Additionally, the Explainable AI method, i.e., SHAP analysis was studied to explain and interpret the ML models' predicted values for mechanical properties. Moreover, data-driven explicit models have been identified to estimate mechanical properties based on the processing parameters and material properties with more interpretability as compared to the employed ML models.

The high cost of the test can be dramatically reduced, provided that the coverability as an inherent feature of the code under test is predictable. This article offers a machine learning model to predict the extent to which the test could cover a class in terms of a new metric called Coverageability. The prediction model consists of an ensemble of four regression models. The learning samples consist of feature vectors, where features are source code metrics computed for a class. The samples are labeled by the Coverageability values computed for their corresponding classes. We offer a mathematical model to evaluate test effectiveness in terms of size and coverage of the test suite generated automatically for each class. We extend the size of the feature space by introducing a new approach to defining sub-metrics in terms of existing source code metrics. Using feature importance analysis on the learned prediction models, we sort source code metrics in the order of their impact on the test effectiveness. As a result of which, we found the class strict cyclomatic complexity as the most influential source code metric. Our experiments with the prediction models on a large corpus of Java projects containing about 23,000 classes demonstrate the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.032, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.004, and an R2-score of 0.855. Compared with the state-of-the-art coverage prediction models, our models improve MAE, MSE, and an R2-score by 5.78%, 2.84%, and 20.71%, respectively.