Gradient boosting has become a cornerstone of machine learning, enabling base learners such as decision trees to achieve exceptional predictive performance. While existing algorithms primarily handle scalar or Euclidean outputs, increasingly prevalent complex-structured data, such as distributions, networks, and manifoldvalued outputs, present challenges for traditional methods. Such non-Euclidean data lack algebraic structures such as addition, subtraction, or scalar multiplication required by standard gradient boosting frameworks. To address these challenges, we introduce Fréchet geodesic boosting (FGBoost), a novel approach tailored for outputs residing in geodesic metric spaces. FGBoost leverages geodesics as proxies for residuals and constructs ensembles in a way that respects the intrinsic geometry of the output space. Through theoretical analysis, extensive simulations, and realworld applications, we demonstrate the strong performance and adaptability of FGBoost, showcasing its potential for modeling complex data.

On biomedical tabular data, flexible models such as deep networks, gradient-boosted trees, and kernel methods are repeatedly matched or beaten by linear and logistic regression given the same features. The usual reaction is to treat this as a model-side shortfall, to be fixed with more data, a better architecture, or tuning, on the assumption that the nonlinear structure is there and the model has failed to capture it. We argue that these fixes cannot help when the binding limit is the measurement rather than the model, as it frequently is in biomedicine. Additive noise blurs the population-optimal predictor, and because blurring removes a function's fine, rapidly varying detail before its broad shape, it erases nonlinear structure faster than linear structure. A degree-$k$ interaction is attenuated by the $k$-th power of feature reliability, while the linear part is attenuated only once. At the reliabilities typical of biomedical measurement, the nonlinear advantage can vanish even when the underlying biology is strongly nonlinear, and what the noise removes cannot be recovered by a larger cohort or a more flexible model, only by better measurement. The nonlinearity is hidden, not absent, and a tie between linear and flexible models is not by itself a verdict on the biology. These pieces are classical, drawn from measurement-error statistics, psychometrics, and Gaussian analysis, and we assemble them into an exact excess-risk identity. Measurement reliability is one of three conditions, alongside sample size and feature representation, that must align for a flexible model to help, and together they leave only a narrow window that most biomedical tasks fall outside. Across 140 UK Biobank tasks, the gap between flexible and linear models, where it exists, carries the predicted noise signature, and the three conditions can be separated by intervention but not by a benchmark alone.

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are central to treatment decision-making in personalized medicine. In competing risks settings, estimating CATEs from survival data allows for patient-specific assessments of treatment effectiveness for a specific event of interest while properly accounting for alternative event types. This distinction is essential in the presence of comorbidities, where competing causes of death may otherwise confound the therapeutic benefit. Focusing on right-censored survival times with binary treatment, we examine CATEs defined as covariate-conditional differences in the absolute risk for the event of interest at a fixed time. To this end, we study meta-learners which adapt machine learning algorithms for CATE estimation in competing risks scenarios. We systematically compare six meta-learners, combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling with elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling. To provide practical guidance on model selection, we evaluate their performance in multiple simulation settings, that differ in hazard complexity, treatment heterogeneity, treatment assignment, event type distribution and censoring. To facilitate applied use, we provide the R package, crsurvlearners, which implements all considered approaches.

Understanding how the human brain progresses from processing simple linguistic inputs to performing high-level reasoning is a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. While modern large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to model neural responses to language, their internal representations are highly "entangled," mixing information about lexicon, syntax, meaning, and reasoning. This entanglement biases conventional brain encoding analyses toward linguistically shallow features (e.g., lexicon and syntax), making it difficult to isolate the neural substrates of cognitively deeper processes. Here, we introduce a residual disentanglement method that computationally isolates these components. By first probing an LM to identify feature-specific layers, our method iteratively regresses out lower-level representations to produce four nearly orthogonal embeddings for lexicon, syntax, meaning, and, critically, reasoning. We used these disentangled embeddings to model intracranial (ECoG) brain recordings from neurosurgical patients listening to natural speech. We show that: 1) This isolated reasoning embedding exhibits unique predictive power, accounting for variance in neural activity not explained by other linguistic features and even extending to the recruitment of visual regions beyond classical language areas.

Active statistical inference [51] is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to improve estimation accuracy by prioritizing the collection of labels where the model is most uncertain. The drawback, however, is that inaccurate uncertainty estimates can make active sampling produce highly noisy results, potentially worse than those from naive uniform sampling.

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to identify the local distributional treatment effect--the difference in outcome distributions between treatment and control groups for the subpopulation of compliers. We propose a regression-adjusted estimator based on a distribution regression framework with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions, enabling robustness and flexibility with high-dimensional covariates. Our approach accommodates continuous, discrete, and mixed discrete-continuous outcomes, and applies under a broad class of covariate-adaptive randomization schemes, including stratified block designs and simple random sampling. We derive the estimator's asymptotic distribution and show that it achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation results demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance, and we demonstrate the method's practical relevance in an application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

Recent studies empirically reveal that large reasoning models (LRMs) can automatically allocate more reasoning strengths (i.e., the number of reasoning tokens) for harder problems, exhibiting difficulty-awareness for better task performance. While this automatic reasoning strength allocation phenomenon has been widely observed, its underlying mechanism remains largely unexplored. To this end, we provide explanations for this phenomenon from the perspective of model activations. We find evidence that LRMs pre-plan the reasoning strengths in their activations even before generation, with this reasoning strength causally controlled by the magnitude of a pre-allocated directional vector. Specifically, we show that the number of reasoning tokens is predictable solely based on the question activations using linear probes, indicating that LRMs estimate the required reasoning strength in advance.

We study realizable continual linear regression under random task orderings, a common setting for developing continual learning theory. In this setup, the worstcase expected loss after k learning iterations admits a lower bound of Ω(1/k). However, prior work using an unregularized scheme has only established an upper bound of O(1/k1/4), leaving a significant gap. Our paper proves that this gap can be narrowed, or even closed, using two frequently used regularization schemes: (1) explicit isotropic ℓ2 regularization, and (2) implicit regularization via finite step budgets. We show that these approaches, which are used in practice to mitigate forgetting, reduce to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on carefully defined surrogate losses. Through this lens, we identify a fixed regularization strength that yields a near-optimal rate of O(logk/k). Moreover, formalizing and analyzing a generalized variant of SGD for time-varying functions, we derive an increasing regularization strength schedule that provably achieves an optimal rate of O(1/k). This suggests that schedules that increase the regularization coefficient or decrease the number of steps per task are beneficial, at least in the worst case.

Local SGD, or Federated Averaging, is one of the most widely used algorithms for distributed optimization. Although it often outperforms alternatives such as mini-batch SGD, existing theory has not fully explained this advantage under realistic assumptions about data heterogeneity. Recent work has suggested that a second-order heterogeneity assumption may suffice to justify the empirical gains of local SGD. We confirm this conjecture by establishing new upper and lower bounds on the convergence of local SGD. These bounds demonstrate how a low secondorder heterogeneity, combined with third-order smoothness, enables local SGD to interpolate between heterogeneous and homogeneous regimes while maintaining communication efficiency. Our main technical contribution is a refined analysis of the consensus error, a central quantity in such results. We validate our theory with experiments on a distributed linear regression task.

Gaussian sketching, which consists of pre-multiplying the data with a random Gaussian matrix, is a widely used technique in data science and machine learning. Beyond computational benefits, this operation also provides differential privacy guarantees due to its inherent randomness. In this work, we revisit this operation through the lens of Rényi Differential Privacy (RDP), providing a refined privacy analysis that yields significantly tighter bounds than prior results. We then demonstrate how this improved analysis leads to performance improvement in different linear regression settings, establishing theoretical utility guarantees. Empirically, our methods improve performance across multiple datasets and, in several cases, reduce runtime.