We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). Through the development of a formal causal inference framework, we outline sufficient causal assumptions about the exchangeability between the internal and external controls to identify the ATE and establish the connection to a novel graphical criteria. We propose estimators, review efficiency bounds, develop an approach for efficient doubly-robust estimation even when unknown nuisance models are estimated with flexible machine learning methods, and demonstrate finite-sample performance through a simulation study. To illustrate the ideas and methods, we apply the framework to a trial investigating the effect of risdisplam on motor function in patients with spinal muscular atrophy for which there exists an external set of control patients from a previous trial.

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) solves a multivariate optimization problem to estimate the system's optimal control inputs in each control cycle. Such optimization is made more difficult by several factors, such as nonlinearities inherited in the system, highly coupled inputs, and various constraints related to the system's physical limitations. These factors make the optimization to be non-convex and hard to solve traditionally. Genetic algorithm (GA) is typically used extensively to tackle such optimization in several application domains because it does not involve differential calculation or gradient evaluation in its solution estimation. However, the size of the search space in which the GA searches for the optimal control inputs is crucial for the applicability of the GA with systems that require fast response. This paper proposes an approach to accelerate the genetic optimization of NMPC by learning optimal search space size. The proposed approach trains a multivariate regression model to adaptively predict the best smallest search space in every control cycle. The estimated best smallest size of search space is fed to the GA to allow for searching the optimal control inputs within this search space. The proposed approach not only reduces the GA's computational time but also improves the chance of obtaining the optimal control inputs in each cycle. The proposed approach was evaluated on two nonlinear systems and compared with two other genetic-based NMPC approaches implemented on the GPU of a Nvidia Jetson TX2 embedded platform in a processor-in-theloop (PIL) fashion. The results show that the proposed approach provides a 39-53% reduction in computational time. Additionally, it increases the convergence percentage to the optimal control inputs within the cycle's time by 48-56%, resulting in a significant performance enhancement. The source code is available on GitHub. Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control method used to control a system while satisfying a set of constraints [1]. It generates the optimal control inputs in each control cycle by minimizing a multivariate optimization problem subject to given constraints.

Optimizing energy consumption and coordination of utility systems have long been a concern of the building industry. Buildings are one of the largest energy consumers in the world, making their energy efficiency crucial for preventing waste and reducing costs. Additionally, buildings generate substantial amounts of raw data, which can be used to understand energy consumption patterns and assist in developing optimization strategies. Using a real-world dataset, this research aims to identify the factors that influence building cost reduction and energy consumption. To achieve this, we utilize three regression models (Lasso Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest) to predict primary fuel usage, electrical energy consumption, and cost savings in buildings. An analysis of the factors influencing energy consumption and cost reduction is conducted, and the decision tree algorithm is optimized using metaheuristics. By employing metaheuristic techniques, we fine-tune the decision tree algorithm's parameters and improve its accuracy. Finally, we review the most practical features of potential and nonpotential buildings that can reduce primary fuel usage, electrical energy consumption, and costs

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a popular tool for modeling spatial heterogeneity in a regression model. However, the current weighting function used in GWR only considers the geographical distance, while the attribute similarity is totally ignored. In this study, we proposed a covariate weighting function that combines the geographical distance and attribute distance. The covariate-distance weighted regression (CWR) is the extension of GWR including geographical distance and attribute distance. House prices are affected by numerous factors, such as house age, floor area, and land use. Prediction model is used to help understand the characteristics of regional house prices. The CWR was used to understand the relationship between the house price and controlling factors. The CWR can consider the geological and attribute distances, and produce accurate estimates of house price that preserve the weight matrix for geological and attribute distance functions. Results show that the house attributes/conditions and the characteristics of the house, such as floor area and house age, might affect the house price. After factor selection, in which only house age and floor area of a building are considered, the RMSE of the CWR model can be improved by 2.9%-26.3% for skyscrapers when compared to the GWR. CWR can effectively reduce estimation errors from traditional spatial regression models and provide novel and feasible models for spatial estimation.

The cold start problem is a common challenge in various domains, including media use cases such as predicting viewership for newly launched shows on Over-The-Top (OTT) platforms. In this study, we propose a generic approach to tackle cold start problems by leveraging metadata and employing multi-model ensemble techniques. Our methodology includes feature engineering, model selection, and an ensemble approach based on a weighted average of predictions. The performance of our proposed method is evaluated using various performance metrics. Our results indicate that the multi-model ensemble approach significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to individual models.

Motivated by applications, we consider here new operator theoretic approaches to Conditional mean embeddings (CME). Our present results combine a spectral analysis-based optimization scheme with the use of kernels, stochastic processes, and constructive learning algorithms. For initially given non-linear data, we consider optimization-based feature selections. This entails the use of convex sets of positive definite (p.d.) kernels in a construction of optimal feature selection via regression algorithms from learning models. Thus, with initial inputs of training data (for a suitable learning algorithm,) each choice of p.d. kernel $K$ in turn yields a variety of Hilbert spaces and realizations of features. A novel idea here is that we shall allow an optimization over selected sets of kernels $K$ from a convex set $C$ of positive definite kernels $K$. Hence our \textquotedblleft optimal\textquotedblright{} choices of feature representations will depend on a secondary optimization over p.d. kernels $K$ within a specified convex set $C$.

Kronecker regression is a highly-structured least squares problem $\min_{\mathbf{x}} \lVert \mathbf{K}\mathbf{x} - \mathbf{b} \rVert_{2}^2$, where the design matrix $\mathbf{K} = \mathbf{A}^{(1)} \otimes \cdots \otimes \mathbf{A}^{(N)}$ is a Kronecker product of factor matrices. This regression problem arises in each step of the widely-used alternating least squares (ALS) algorithm for computing the Tucker decomposition of a tensor. We present the first subquadratic-time algorithm for solving Kronecker regression to a $(1+\varepsilon)$-approximation that avoids the exponential term $O(\varepsilon^{-N})$ in the running time. Our techniques combine leverage score sampling and iterative methods. By extending our approach to block-design matrices where one block is a Kronecker product, we also achieve subquadratic-time algorithms for (1) Kronecker ridge regression and (2) updating the factor matrices of a Tucker decomposition in ALS, which is not a pure Kronecker regression problem, thereby improving the running time of all steps of Tucker ALS. We demonstrate the speed and accuracy of this Kronecker regression algorithm on synthetic data and real-world image tensors.

Regression methods assume that accurate labels are available for training. However, in certain scenarios, obtaining accurate labels may not be feasible, and relying on multiple specialists with differing opinions becomes necessary. Existing approaches addressing noisy labels often impose restrictive assumptions on the regression function. In contrast, this paper presents a novel, more flexible approach. Our method consists of two steps: estimating each labeler's expertise and combining their opinions using learned weights. We then regress the weighted average against the input features to build the prediction model. The proposed method is formally justified and empirically demonstrated to outperform existing techniques on simulated and real data. Furthermore, its flexibility enables the utilization of any machine learning technique in both steps. In summary, this method offers a simple, fast, and effective solution for training regression models with noisy labels derived from diverse expert opinions.

Modern statistical learning algorithms are capable of amazing flexibility, but struggle with interpretability. One possible solution is sparsity: making inference such that many of the parameters are estimated as being identically 0, which may be imposed through the use of nonsmooth penalties such as the $\ell_1$ penalty. However, the $\ell_1$ penalty introduces significant bias when high sparsity is desired. In this article, we retain the $\ell_1$ penalty, but define learnable penalty weights $\lambda_p$ endowed with hyperpriors. We start the article by investigating the optimization problem this poses, developing a proximal operator associated with the $\ell_1$ norm. We then study the theoretical properties of this variable-coefficient $\ell_1$ penalty in the context of penalized likelihood. Next, we investigate application of this penalty to Variational Bayes, developing a model we call the Sparse Bayesian Lasso which allows for behavior qualitatively like Lasso regression to be applied to arbitrary variational models. In simulation studies, this gives us the Uncertainty Quantification and low bias properties of simulation-based approaches with an order of magnitude less computation. Finally, we apply our methodology to a Bayesian lagged spatiotemporal regression model of internal displacement that occurred during the Iraqi Civil War of 2013-2017.

Rutting of asphalt pavements is a crucial design criterion in various pavement design guides. A good road transportation base can provide security for the transportation of oil and gas in road transportation. This study attempts to develop a robust artificial intelligence model to estimate different asphalt pavements' rutting depth clips, temperature, and load axes as primary characteristics. The experiment data were obtained from 19 asphalt pavements with different crude oil sources on a 2.038 km long full-scale field accelerated pavement test track (RIOHTrack, Road Track Institute) in Tongzhou, Beijing. In addition, this paper also proposes to build complex networks with different pavement rutting depths through complex network methods and the Louvain algorithm for community detection. The most critical structural elements can be selected from different asphalt pavement rutting data, and similar structural elements can be found. An extreme learning machine algorithm with residual correction (RELM) is designed and optimized using an independent adaptive particle swarm algorithm. The experimental results of the proposed method are compared with several classical machine learning algorithms, with predictions of Average Root Mean Squared Error, Average Mean Absolute Error, and Average Mean Absolute Percentage Error for 19 asphalt pavements reaching 1.742, 1.363, and 1.94\% respectively. The experiments demonstrate that the RELM algorithm has an advantage over classical machine learning methods in dealing with non-linear problems in road engineering. Notably, the method ensures the adaptation of the simulated environment to different levels of abstraction through the cognitive analysis of the production environment parameters.