Electric vehicle charging demand models, with charging records as input, will inherently be biased toward the supply of available chargers. These models often fail to account for demand lost from occupied charging stations and competitors. The lost demand suggests that the actual demand is likely higher than the charging records reflect, i.e., the true demand is latent (unobserved), and the observations are censored. As a result, machine learning models that rely on these observed records for forecasting charging demand may be limited in their application in future infrastructure expansion and supply management, as they do not estimate the true demand for charging. We propose using censorship-aware models to model charging demand to address this limitation. These models incorporate censorship in their loss functions and learn the true latent demand distribution from observed charging records. We study how occupied charging stations and competing services censor demand using GPS trajectories from cars in Copenhagen, Denmark. We find that censorship occurs up to $61\%$ of the time in some areas of the city. We use the observed charging demand from our study to estimate the true demand and find that censorship-aware models provide better prediction and uncertainty estimation of actual demand than censorship-unaware models. We suggest that future charging models based on charging records should account for censoring to expand the application areas of machine learning models in supply management and infrastructure expansion.

The repetitive tracking task for time-varying systems (TVSs) with non-repetitive time-varying parameters, which is also called non-repetitive TVSs, is realized in this paper using iterative learning control (ILC). A machine learning (ML) based nominal model update mechanism, which utilizes the linear regression technique to update the nominal model at each ILC trial only using the current trial information, is proposed for non-repetitive TVSs in order to enhance the ILC performance. Given that the ML mechanism forces the model uncertainties to remain within the ILC robust tolerance, an ILC update law is proposed to deal with non-repetitive TVSs. How to tune parameters inside ML and ILC algorithms to achieve the desired aggregate performance is also provided. The robustness and reliability of the proposed method are verified by simulations. Comparison with current state-of-the-art demonstrates its superior control performance in terms of controlling precision. This paper broadens ILC applications from time-invariant systems to non-repetitive TVSs, adopts ML regression technique to estimate non-repetitive time-varying parameters between two ILC trials and proposes a detailed parameter tuning mechanism to achieve desired performance, which are the main contributions.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

The accurate prediction of the two-phase heat transfer coefficient (HTC) as a function of working fluids, channel geometries and process conditions is key to the optimal design and operation of compact heat exchangers. Advances in artificial intelligence research have recently boosted the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to obtain data-driven surrogate models for the HTC. For most supervised learning algorithms, the task is that of a nonlinear regression problem. Despite the fact that these models have been proven capable of outperforming traditional empirical correlations, they have key limitations such as overfitting the data, the lack of uncertainty estimation, and interpretability of the results. To address these limitations, in this paper, we use a multi-output Gaussian process regression (GPR) to estimate the HTC in microchannels as a function of the mass flow rate, heat flux, system pressure and channel diameter and length. The model is trained using the Brunel Two-Phase Flow database of high-fidelity experimental data. The advantages of GPR are data efficiency, the small number of hyperparameters to be trained (typically of the same order of the number of input dimensions), and the automatic trade-off between data fit and model complexity guaranteed by the maximization of the marginal likelihood (Bayesian approach). Our paper proposes research directions to improve the performance of the GPR-based model in extrapolation.

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

This paper investigates the asymptotic distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) in multinomial logistic models in the high-dimensional regime where dimension and sample size are of the same order. While classical large-sample theory provides asymptotic normality of the MLE under certain conditions, such classical results are expected to fail in high-dimensions as documented for the binary logistic case in the seminal work of Sur and Cand\`es [2019]. We address this issue in classification problems with 3 or more classes, by developing asymptotic normality and asymptotic chi-square results for the multinomial logistic MLE (also known as cross-entropy minimizer) on null covariates. Our theory leads to a new methodology to test the significance of a given feature. Extensive simulation studies on synthetic data corroborate these asymptotic results and confirm the validity of proposed p-values for testing the significance of a given feature.

A heart murmur is an atypical sound produced by the flow of blood through the heart. It can be a sign of a serious heart condition, so detecting heart murmurs is critical for identifying and managing cardiovascular diseases. However, current methods for identifying murmurous heart sounds do not fully utilize the valuable insights that can be gained by exploring intrinsic properties of heart sound signals. To address this issue, this study proposes a new discriminatory set of multiscale features based on the self-similarity and complexity properties of heart sounds, as derived in the wavelet domain. Self-similarity is characterized by assessing fractal behaviors, while complexity is explored by calculating wavelet entropy. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of these proposed features for detecting murmurs using a set of standard classifiers. When applied to a publicly available heart sound dataset, our proposed wavelet-based multiscale features achieved comparable performance to existing methods with fewer features. This suggests that self-similarity and complexity properties in heart sounds could be potential biomarkers for improving the accuracy of murmur detection.

Understanding black-box Machine Learning methods on multidimensional data is a key challenge in Machine Learning. While many powerful Machine Learning methods already exist, these methods are often unexplainable or perform poorly on complex data. This paper proposes visual knowledge discovery approaches based on several forms of lossless General Line Coordinates. These are an expansion of the previously introduced General Line Coordinates Linear and Dynamic Scaffolding Coordinates to produce, explain, and visualize non-linear classifiers with explanation rules. To ensure these non-linear models and rules are accurate, General Line Coordinates Linear also developed new interactive visual knowledge discovery algorithms for finding worst-case validation splits. These expansions are General Line Coordinates non-linear, interactive rules linear, hyperblock rules linear, and worst-case linear. Experiments across multiple benchmark datasets show that this visual knowledge discovery method can compete with other visual and computational Machine Learning algorithms while improving both interpretability and accuracy in linear and non-linear classifications. Major benefits from these expansions consist of the ability to build accurate and highly interpretable models and rules from hyperblocks, the ability to analyze interpretability weaknesses in a model, and the input of expert knowledge through interactive and human-guided visual knowledge discovery methods.

To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of visibility; however, the skill, and reliability of visibility predictions are far reduced compared to other variables, such as temperature or wind speed. Hence, some form of calibration is strongly advised, which usually means estimation of the predictive distribution of the weather quantity at hand either by parametric or non-parametric approaches, including also machine learning-based techniques. As visibility observations - according to the suggestion of the World Meteorological Organization - are usually reported in discrete values, the predictive distribution for this particular variable is a discrete probability law, hence calibration can be reduced to a classification problem. Based on visibility ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts covering two slightly overlapping domains in Central and Western Europe and two different time periods, we investigate the predictive performance of locally, semi-locally and regionally trained proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network classifiers. We show that while climatological forecasts outperform the raw ensemble by a wide margin, post-processing results in further substantial improvement in forecast skill and in general, POLR models are superior to their MLP counterparts.

Many convex optimization problems with important applications in machine learning are formulated as empirical risk minimization (ERM). There are several examples: linear and logistic regression, LASSO, kernel regression, quantile regression, $p$-norm regression, support vector machines (SVM), and mean-field variational inference. To improve data privacy, federated learning is proposed in machine learning as a framework for training deep learning models on the network edge without sharing data between participating nodes. In this work, we present an interior point method (IPM) to solve a general ERM problem under the federated learning setting. We show that the communication complexity of each iteration of our IPM is $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2})$, where $d$ is the dimension (i.e., number of features) of the dataset.