The determination of biological brain age is a crucial biomarker in the assessment of neurological disorders and understanding of the morphological changes that occur during aging. Various machine learning models have been proposed for estimating brain age through Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of healthy controls. However, developing a robust brain age estimation (BAE) framework has been challenging due to the selection of appropriate MRI-derived features and the high cost of MRI acquisition. In this study, we present a novel BAE framework using the Open Big Healthy Brain (OpenBHB) dataset, which is a new multi-site and publicly available benchmark dataset that includes region-wise feature metrics derived from T1-weighted (T1-w) brain MRI scans of 3965 healthy controls aged between 6 to 86 years. Our approach integrates three different MRI-derived region-wise features and different regression models, resulting in a highly accurate brain age estimation with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 3.25 years, demonstrating the framework's robustness. We also analyze our model's regression-based performance on gender-wise (male and female) healthy test groups. The proposed BAE framework provides a new approach for estimating brain age, which has important implications for the understanding of neurological disorders and age-related brain changes.

Minimizing response times is crucial for emergency medical services to reduce patients' waiting times and to increase their survival rates. Many models exist to optimize operational tasks such as ambulance allocation and dispatching. Including accurate demand forecasts in such models can improve operational decision-making. Against this background, we present a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture that transforms time series data into heatmaps to predict ambulance demand. Applying such predictions requires incorporating external features that influence ambulance demands. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a flexible, generic CNN architecture, allowing for the inclusion of external features with varying dimensions. Additionally, we provide a feature selection and hyperparameter optimization framework utilizing Bayesian optimization. We integrate historical ambulance demand and external information such as weather, events, holidays, and time. To show the superiority of the developed CNN architecture over existing approaches, we conduct a case study for Seattle's 911 call data and include external information. We show that the developed CNN architecture outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and industry practice by more than 9%.

Transfer learning is a useful technique for achieving improved performance and reducing training costs by leveraging the knowledge gained from source tasks and applying it to target tasks. Assessing the effectiveness of transfer learning relies on understanding the similarity between the ground truth of the source and target tasks. In real-world applications, tasks often exhibit partial similarity, where certain aspects are similar while others are different or irrelevant. To investigate the impact of partial similarity on transfer learning performance, we focus on a linear regression model with two distinct sets of features: a common part shared across tasks and a task-specific part. Our study explores various types of transfer learning, encompassing two options for parameter transfer. By establishing a theoretical characterization on the error of the learned model, we compare these transfer learning options, particularly examining how generalization performance changes with the number of features/parameters in both underparameterized and overparameterized regimes. Furthermore, we provide practical guidelines for determining the number of features in the common and task-specific parts for improved generalization performance. For example, when the total number of features in the source task's learning model is fixed, we show that it is more advantageous to allocate a greater number of redundant features to the task-specific part rather than the common part. Moreover, in specific scenarios, particularly those characterized by high noise levels and small true parameters, sacrificing certain true features in the common part in favor of employing more redundant features in the task-specific part can yield notable benefits.

Robotic Information Gathering (RIG) is a foundational research topic that answers how a robot (team) collects informative data to efficiently build an accurate model of an unknown target function under robot embodiment constraints. RIG has many applications, including but not limited to autonomous exploration and mapping, 3D reconstruction or inspection, search and rescue, and environmental monitoring. A RIG system relies on a probabilistic model's prediction uncertainty to identify critical areas for informative data collection. Gaussian Processes (GPs) with stationary kernels have been widely adopted for spatial modeling. However, real-world spatial data is typically non-stationary -- different locations do not have the same degree of variability. As a result, the prediction uncertainty does not accurately reveal prediction error, limiting the success of RIG algorithms. We propose a family of non-stationary kernels named Attentive Kernel (AK), which is simple, robust, and can extend any existing kernel to a non-stationary one. We evaluate the new kernel in elevation mapping tasks, where AK provides better accuracy and uncertainty quantification over the commonly used stationary kernels and the leading non-stationary kernels. The improved uncertainty quantification guides the downstream informative planner to collect more valuable data around the high-error area, further increasing prediction accuracy. A field experiment demonstrates that the proposed method can guide an Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV) to prioritize data collection in locations with significant spatial variations, enabling the model to characterize salient environmental features.

In-context learning is one of the surprising and useful features of large language models. How it works is an active area of research. Recently, stylized meta-learning-like setups have been devised that train these models on a sequence of input-output pairs $(x, f(x))$ from a function class using the language modeling loss and observe generalization to unseen functions from the same class. One of the main discoveries in this line of research has been that for several problems such as linear regression, trained transformers learn algorithms for learning functions in context. However, the inductive biases of these models resulting in this behavior are not clearly understood. A model with unlimited training data and compute is a Bayesian predictor: it learns the pretraining distribution. It has been shown that high-capacity transformers mimic the Bayesian predictor for linear regression. In this paper, we show empirical evidence of transformers exhibiting the behavior of this ideal learner across different linear and non-linear function classes. We also extend the previous setups to work in the multitask setting and verify that transformers can do in-context learning in this setup as well and the Bayesian perspective sheds light on this setting also. Finally, via the example of learning Fourier series, we study the inductive bias for in-context learning. We find that in-context learning may or may not have simplicity bias depending on the pretraining data distribution.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the analytical mathematical expression from data, finding various applications in natural sciences due to its good interpretability of results. However, existing methods face scalability issues when dealing with complex equations involving multiple variables. To address this challenge, we propose SRCV, a novel neural symbolic regression method that leverages control variables to enhance both accuracy and scalability. The core idea is to decompose multi-variable symbolic regression into a set of single-variable SR problems, which are then combined in a bottom-up manner. The proposed method involves a four-step process. First, we learn a data generator from observed data using deep neural networks (DNNs). Second, the data generator is used to generate samples for a certain variable by controlling the input variables. Thirdly, single-variable symbolic regression is applied to estimate the corresponding mathematical expression. Lastly, we repeat steps 2 and 3 by gradually adding variables one by one until completion. We evaluate the performance of our method on multiple benchmark datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SRCV significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in discovering mathematical expressions with multiple variables. Moreover, it can substantially reduce the search space for symbolic regression. The source code will be made publicly available upon publication.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

The algorithms used to train neural networks, like stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have close parallels to natural processes that navigate a high-dimensional parameter space -- for example protein folding or evolution. Our study uses a Fokker-Planck approach, adapted from statistical physics, to explore these parallels in a single, unified framework. We focus in particular on the stationary state of the system in the long-time limit, which in conventional SGD is out of equilibrium, exhibiting persistent currents in the space of network parameters. As in its physical analogues, the current is associated with an entropy production rate for any given training trajectory. The stationary distribution of these rates obeys the integral and detailed fluctuation theorems -- nonequilibrium generalizations of the second law of thermodynamics. We validate these relations in two numerical examples, a nonlinear regression network and MNIST digit classification. While the fluctuation theorems are universal, there are other aspects of the stationary state that are highly sensitive to the training details. Surprisingly, the effective loss landscape and diffusion matrix that determine the shape of the stationary distribution vary depending on the simple choice of minibatching done with or without replacement. We can take advantage of this nonequilibrium sensitivity to engineer an equilibrium stationary state for a particular application: sampling from a posterior distribution of network weights in Bayesian machine learning. We propose a new variation of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) that harnesses without replacement minibatching. In an example system where the posterior is exactly known, this SGWORLD algorithm outperforms SGLD, converging to the posterior orders of magnitude faster as a function of the learning rate.

Counterexample-guided repair aims at creating neural networks with mathematical safety guarantees, facilitating the application of neural networks in safety-critical domains. However, whether counterexample-guided repair is guaranteed to terminate remains an open question. We approach this question by showing that counterexample-guided repair can be viewed as a robust optimisation algorithm. While termination guarantees for neural network repair itself remain beyond our reach, we prove termination for more restrained machine learning models and disprove termination in a general setting. We empirically study the practical implications of our theoretical results, demonstrating the suitability of common verifiers and falsifiers for repair despite a disadvantageous theoretical result. Additionally, we use our theoretical insights to devise a novel algorithm for repairing linear regression models based on quadratic programming, surpassing existing approaches.