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 Regression


Exploring hyperelastic material model discovery for human brain cortex: multivariate analysis vs. artificial neural network approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional computational methods, such as the finite element analysis, have provided valuable insights into uncovering the underlying mechanisms of brain physical behaviors. However, precise predictions of brain physics require effective constitutive models to represent the intricate mechanical properties of brain tissue. In this study, we aimed to identify the most favorable constitutive material model for human brain tissue. To achieve this, we applied artificial neural network and multiple regression methods to a generalization of widely accepted classic models, and compared the results obtained from these two approaches. To evaluate the applicability and efficacy of the model, all setups were kept consistent across both methods, except for the approach to prevent potential overfitting. Our results demonstrate that artificial neural networks are capable of automatically identifying accurate constitutive models from given admissible estimators. Nonetheless, the five-term and two-term neural network models trained under single-mode and multi-mode loading scenarios, were found to be suboptimal and could be further simplified into two-term and single-term, respectively, with higher accuracy using multiple regression. Our findings highlight the importance of hyperparameters for the artificial neural network and emphasize the necessity for detailed cross-validations of regularization parameters to ensure optimal selection at a global level in the development of material constitutive models. This study validates the applicability and accuracy of artificial neural network to automatically discover constitutive material models with proper regularization as well as the benefits in model simplification without compromising accuracy for traditional multivariable regression.


Interpretable Predictive Models to Understand Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Outcomes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although most pregnancies result in a good outcome, complications are not uncommon and can be associated with serious implications for mothers and babies. Predictive modeling has the potential to improve outcomes through better understanding of risk factors, heightened surveillance for high risk patients, and more timely and appropriate interventions, thereby helping obstetricians deliver better care. We identify and study the most important risk factors for four types of pregnancy complications: (i) severe maternal morbidity, (ii) shoulder dystocia, (iii) preterm preeclampsia, and (iv) antepartum stillbirth. We use an Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a high-accuracy glass-box learning method, for prediction and identification of important risk factors. We undertake external validation and perform an extensive robustness analysis of the EBM models. EBMs match the accuracy of other black-box ML methods such as deep neural networks and random forests, and outperform logistic regression, while being more interpretable. EBMs prove to be robust. The interpretability of the EBM models reveals surprising insights into the features contributing to risk (e.g. maternal height is the second most important feature for shoulder dystocia) and may have potential for clinical application in the prediction and prevention of serious complications in pregnancy.


Regularization properties of adversarially-trained linear regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

State-of-the-art machine learning models can be vulnerable to very small input perturbations that are adversarially constructed. Adversarial training is an effective approach to defend against it. Formulated as a min-max problem, it searches for the best solution when the training data were corrupted by the worst-case attacks. Linear models are among the simple models where vulnerabilities can be observed and are the focus of our study. In this case, adversarial training leads to a convex optimization problem which can be formulated as the minimization of a finite sum. We provide a comparative analysis between the solution of adversarial training in linear regression and other regularization methods. Our main findings are that: (A) Adversarial training yields the minimum-norm interpolating solution in the overparameterized regime (more parameters than data), as long as the maximum disturbance radius is smaller than a threshold. And, conversely, the minimum-norm interpolator is the solution to adversarial training with a given radius. (B) Adversarial training can be equivalent to parameter shrinking methods (ridge regression and Lasso). This happens in the underparametrized region, for an appropriate choice of adversarial radius and zero-mean symmetrically distributed covariates. (C) For $\ell_\infty$-adversarial training -- as in square-root Lasso -- the choice of adversarial radius for optimal bounds does not depend on the additive noise variance. We confirm our theoretical findings with numerical examples.


Applications of Machine Learning in Biopharmaceutical Process Development and Manufacturing: Current Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While machine learning (ML) has made significant contributions to the biopharmaceutical field, its applications are still in the early stages in terms of providing direct support for quality-by-design based development and manufacturing of biopharmaceuticals, hindering the enormous potential for bioprocesses automation from their development to manufacturing. However, the adoption of ML-based models instead of conventional multivariate data analysis methods is significantly increasing due to the accumulation of large-scale production data. This trend is primarily driven by the real-time monitoring of process variables and quality attributes of biopharmaceutical products through the implementation of advanced process analytical technologies. Given the complexity and multidimensionality of a bioproduct design, bioprocess development, and product manufacturing data, ML-based approaches are increasingly being employed to achieve accurate, flexible, and high-performing predictive models to address the problems of analytics, monitoring, and control within the biopharma field. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of the current applications of ML solutions in a bioproduct design, monitoring, control, and optimisation of upstream, downstream, and product formulation processes. Finally, this paper thoroughly discusses the main challenges related to the bioprocesses themselves, process data, and the use of machine learning models in biopharmaceutical process development and manufacturing. Moreover, it offers further insights into the adoption of innovative machine learning methods and novel trends in the development of new digital biopharma solutions.


Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent for Logistic Regression at the Edge of Stability

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent research has observed that in machine learning optimization, gradient descent (GD) often operates at the edge of stability (EoS) [Cohen, et al., 2021], where the stepsizes are set to be large, resulting in non-monotonic losses induced by the GD iterates. This paper studies the convergence and implicit bias of constant-stepsize GD for logistic regression on linearly separable data in the EoS regime. Despite the presence of local oscillations, we prove that the logistic loss can be minimized by GD with \emph{any} constant stepsize over a long time scale. Furthermore, we prove that with \emph{any} constant stepsize, the GD iterates tend to infinity when projected to a max-margin direction (the hard-margin SVM direction) and converge to a fixed vector that minimizes a strongly convex potential when projected to the orthogonal complement of the max-margin direction. In contrast, we also show that in the EoS regime, GD iterates may diverge catastrophically under the exponential loss, highlighting the superiority of the logistic loss. These theoretical findings are in line with numerical simulations and complement existing theories on the convergence and implicit bias of GD for logistic regression, which are only applicable when the stepsizes are sufficiently small.


Gender-Based Comparative Study of Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors in Kolkata, India: A Machine Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Type 2 diabetes mellitus represents a prevalent and widespread global health concern, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of its risk factors. This study aimed towards learning whether there is any differential impact of age, Lifestyle, BMI and Waist to height ratio on the risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in males and females in Kolkata, West Bengal, India based on a sample observed from the out-patient consultation department of Belle Vue Clinic in Kolkata. Various machine learning models like Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Classifier, were used to predict the risk of diabetes, and performance was compared based on different predictors. Our findings indicate a significant age-related increase in risk of diabetes for both males and females. Although exercising and BMI was found to have significant impact on the risk of Type 2 diabetes in males, in females both turned out to be statistically insignificant. For both males and females, predictive models based on WhtR demonstrated superior performance in risk assessment compared to those based on BMI. This study sheds light on the gender-specific differences in the risk factors for Type 2 diabetes, offering valuable insights that can be used towards more targeted healthcare interventions and public health strategies.


Ensemble learning for blending gridded satellite and gauge-measured precipitation data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, satellite precipitation and topography data are the predictor variables, and gauged-measured precipitation data are the dependent variables. Alongside this, it is increasingly recognised in many fields that combinations of algorithms through ensemble learning can lead to substantial predictive performance improvements. Still, a sufficient number of ensemble learners for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products and their large-scale comparison are currently missing from the literature. In this study, we work towards filling in this specific gap by proposing 11 new ensemble learners in the field and by extensively comparing them. We apply the ensemble learners to monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets that span over a 15-year period and over the entire the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also use gauge-measured precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The ensemble learners combine the predictions of six machine learning regression algorithms (base learners), namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and each of them is based on a different combiner. The combiners include the equal-weight combiner, the median combiner, two best learners and seven variants of a sophisticated stacking method. The latter stacks a regression algorithm on top of the base learners to combine their independent predictions...


Target Variable Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How does the formulation of a target variable affect performance within the ML pipeline? The experiments in this study examine numeric targets that have been binarized by comparing against a threshold. We compare the predictive performance of regression models trained to predict the numeric targets vs. classifiers trained to predict their binarized counterparts. Specifically, we make this comparison at every point of a randomized hyperparameter optimization search to understand the effect of computational resource budget on the tradeoff between the two. We find that regression requires significantly more computational effort to converge upon the optimal performance, and is more sensitive to both randomness and heuristic choices in the training process. Although classification can and does benefit from systematic hyperparameter tuning and model selection, the improvements are much less than for regression. This work comprises the first systematic comparison of regression and classification within the framework of computational resource requirements. Our findings contribute to calls for greater replicability and efficiency within the ML pipeline for the sake of building more sustainable and robust AI systems.


Identifying and examining machine learning biases on Adult dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research delves into the reduction of machine learning model bias through Ensemble Learning. Our rigorous methodology comprehensively assesses bias across various categorical variables, ultimately revealing a pronounced gender attribute bias. The empirical evidence unveils a substantial gender-based wage prediction disparity: wages predicted for males, initially at \$902.91, significantly decrease to \$774.31 when the gender attribute is alternated to females. Notably, Kullback-Leibler divergence scores point to gender bias, with values exceeding 0.13, predominantly within tree-based models. Employing Ensemble Learning elucidates the quest for fairness and transparency. Intriguingly, our findings reveal that the stacked model aligns with individual models, confirming the resilience of model bias. This study underscores ethical considerations and advocates the implementation of hybrid models for a data-driven society marked by impartiality and inclusivity.


Fast Screening Rules for Optimal Design via Quadratic Lasso Reformulation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problems of Lasso regression and optimal design of experiments share a critical property: their optimal solutions are typically \emph{sparse}, i.e., only a small fraction of the optimal variables are non-zero. Therefore, the identification of the support of an optimal solution reduces the dimensionality of the problem and can yield a substantial simplification of the calculations. It has recently been shown that linear regression with a \emph{squared} $\ell_1$-norm sparsity-inducing penalty is equivalent to an optimal experimental design problem. In this work, we use this equivalence to derive safe screening rules that can be used to discard inessential samples. Compared to previously existing rules, the new tests are much faster to compute, especially for problems involving a parameter space of high dimension, and can be used dynamically within any iterative solver, with negligible computational overhead. Moreover, we show how an existing homotopy algorithm to compute the regularization path of the lasso method can be reparametrized with respect to the squared $\ell_1$-penalty. This allows the computation of a Bayes $c$-optimal design in a finite number of steps and can be several orders of magnitude faster than standard first-order algorithms. The efficiency of the new screening rules and of the homotopy algorithm are demonstrated on different examples based on real data.