We designed and tested a system for real-time control of a user interface by extracting surface electromyographic (sEMG) activity from eight electrodes in a wrist-band configuration. sEMG data were streamed into a machine-learning algorithm that classified hand gestures in real-time. After an initial model calibration, participants were presented with one of three types of feedback during a human-learning stage: veridical feedback, in which predicted probabilities from the gesture classification algorithm were displayed without alteration, modified feedback, in which we applied a hidden augmentation of error to these probabilities, and no feedback. User performance was then evaluated in a series of minigames, in which subjects were required to use eight gestures to manipulate their game avatar to complete a task. Experimental results indicated that, relative to baseline, the modified feedback condition led to significantly improved accuracy and improved gesture class separation. These findings suggest that real-time feedback in a gamified user interface with manipulation of feedback may enable intuitive, rapid, and accurate task acquisition for sEMG-based gesture recognition applications.

Transfer learning has become an essential technique to exploit information from the source domain to boost performance of the target task. Despite the prevalence in high-dimensional data, heterogeneity and heavy tails are insufficiently accounted for by current transfer learning approaches and thus may undermine the resulting performance. We propose a transfer learning procedure in the framework of high-dimensional quantile regression models to accommodate heterogeneity and heavy tails in the source and target domains. We establish error bounds of transfer learning estimator based on delicately selected transferable source domains, showing that lower error bounds can be achieved for critical selection criterion and larger sample size of source tasks. We further propose valid confidence interval and hypothesis test procedures for individual component of high-dimensional quantile regression coefficients by advocating a double transfer learning estimator, which is one-step debiased estimator for the transfer learning estimator wherein the technique of transfer learning is designed again. By adopting data-splitting technique, we advocate a transferability detection approach that guarantees to circumvent negative transfer and identify transferable sources with high probability. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits some favorable and compelling performances and the practical utility is further illustrated by analyzing a real example.

We investigate the online overlapping batch-means covariance estimator for Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) under Markovian sampling. Convergence rates of order $O\big(\sqrt{d}\,n^{-1/8}(\log n)^{1/4}\big)$ and $O\big(\sqrt{d}\,n^{-1/8}\big)$ are established under state-dependent and state-independent Markovian sampling, respectively, where $d$ is the dimensionality and $n$ denotes observations or SGD iterations. These rates match the best-known convergence rate for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) data. Our analysis overcomes significant challenges that arise due to Markovian sampling, leading to the introduction of additional error terms and complex dependencies between the blocks of the batch-means covariance estimator. Moreover, we establish the convergence rate for the first four moments of the $\ell_2$ norm of the error of SGD dynamics under state-dependent Markovian data, which holds potential interest as an independent result. Numerical illustrations provide confidence intervals for SGD in linear and logistic regression models under Markovian sampling. Additionally, our method is applied to the strategic classification with logistic regression, where adversaries adaptively modify features during training to affect target class classification.

We propose a new active learning approach for efficiently estimating the geographic range of a species from a limited number of on the ground observations. We model the range of an unmapped species of interest as the weighted combination of estimated ranges obtained from a set of different species. We show that it is possible to generate this candidate set of ranges by using models that have been trained on large weakly supervised community collected observation data. From this, we develop a new active querying approach that sequentially selects geographic locations to visit that best reduce our uncertainty over an unmapped species' range. We conduct a detailed evaluation of our approach and compare it to existing active learning methods using an evaluation dataset containing expert-derived ranges for one thousand species. Our results demonstrate that our method outperforms alternative active learning methods and approaches the performance of end-to-end trained models, even when only using a fraction of the data. This highlights the utility of active learning via transfer learned spatial representations for species range estimation. It also emphasizes the value of leveraging emerging large-scale crowdsourced datasets, not only for modeling a species' range, but also for actively discovering them.

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) is a statistical domain developed to handle functional data characterized by high dimensionality and complex data structures. Sequential Neural Networks (SNNs) are specialized neural networks capable of processing sequence data, a fundamental aspect of functional data. Despite their great flexibility in modeling functional data, SNNs have been inadequately employed in the FDA community. One notable advantage of SNNs is the ease of implementation, making them accessible to a broad audience beyond academia. Conversely, FDA-based methodologies present challenges, particularly for practitioners outside the field, due to their intricate complexity. In light of this, we propose utilizing SNNs in FDA applications and demonstrate their effectiveness through comparative analyses against popular FDA regression models based on numerical experiments and real-world data analysis. SNN architectures allow us to surpass the limitations of traditional FDA methods, offering scalability, flexibility, and improved analytical performance. Our findings highlight the potential of SNN-based methodologies as powerful tools for data applications involving functional data.

Due to the stochastic nature of events, predicting the duration of a traffic incident presents a formidable challenge. Accurate duration estimation can result in substantial advantages for commuters in selecting optimal routes and for traffic management personnel in addressing non-recurring congestion issues. In this study, we gathered accident duration, road conditions, and meteorological data from a database of traffic accidents to check the feasibility of a traffic accident duration pipeline without accident contextual information data like accident severity and textual description. Multiple machine learning models were employed to predict whether an accident's impact on road traffic would be of a short-term or long-term nature, and then utilizing a bimodal approach the precise duration of the incident's effect was determined. Our binary classification random forest model distinguished between short-term and long-term effects with an 83% accuracy rate, while the LightGBM regression model outperformed other machine learning regression models with Mean Average Error (MAE) values of 26.15 and 13.3 and RMSE values of 32.91 and 28.91 for short and long-term accident duration prediction, respectively. Using the optimal classification and regression model identified in the preceding section, we then construct an end-to-end pipeline to incorporate the entire process. The results of both separate and combined approaches were comparable with previous works, which shows the applicability of only using static features for predicting traffic accident duration. The SHAP value analysis identified weather conditions, wind chill and wind speed as the most influential factors in determining the duration of an accident.

Regularized linear regression is a promising approach for binary classification problems in which the training set has noisy labels since the regularization term can help to avoid interpolating the mislabeled data points. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the effects of the regularization strength on the performance of linear classifiers that are trained to solve binary classification problems by minimizing a regularized least-squares objective. We consider the over-parametrized regime and assume that the classes are generated from a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) where a fraction $c<\frac{1}{2}$ of the training data is mislabeled. Under these assumptions, we rigorously analyze the classification errors resulting from the application of ridge, $\ell_1$, and $\ell_\infty$ regression. In particular, we demonstrate that ridge regression invariably improves the classification error. We prove that $\ell_1$ regularization induces sparsity and observe that in many cases one can sparsify the solution by up to two orders of magnitude without any considerable loss of performance, even though the GMM has no underlying sparsity structure. For $\ell_\infty$ regularization we show that, for large enough regularization strength, the optimal weights concentrate around two values of opposite sign. We observe that in many cases the corresponding "compression" of each weight to a single bit leads to very little loss in performance. These latter observations can have significant practical ramifications.

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for inferring how covariates affect specific percentiles of the response distribution. Existing methods either estimate conditional quantiles separately for each quantile of interest or estimate the entire conditional distribution using semi- or non-parametric models. The former often produce inadequate models for real data and do not share information across quantiles, while the latter are characterized by complex and constrained models that can be difficult to interpret and computationally inefficient. Further, neither approach is well-suited for quantile-specific subset selection. Instead, we pose the fundamental problems of linear quantile estimation, uncertainty quantification, and subset selection from a Bayesian decision analysis perspective. For any Bayesian regression model, we derive optimal and interpretable linear estimates and uncertainty quantification for each model-based conditional quantile. Our approach introduces a quantile-focused squared error loss, which enables efficient, closed-form computing and maintains a close relationship with Wasserstein-based density estimation. In an extensive simulation study, our methods demonstrate substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, variable selection, and inference over frequentist and Bayesian competitors. We apply these tools to identify the quantile-specific impacts of social and environmental stressors on educational outcomes for a large cohort of children in North Carolina.

This paper introduces a novel approach for multi-task regression that connects Kernel Machines (KMs) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) through the exploitation of the Random Fourier Features (RFFs) approximation of the RBF kernel. In this sense, one of the contributions of this paper shows that for the proposed models, the KM and the ELM formulations can be regarded as two sides of the same coin. These proposed models, termed RFF-BLR, stand on a Bayesian framework that simultaneously addresses two main design goals. On the one hand, it fits multitask regressors based on KMs endowed with RBF kernels. On the other hand, it enables the introduction of a common-across-tasks prior that promotes multioutput sparsity in the ELM view. This Bayesian approach facilitates the simultaneous consideration of both the KM and ELM perspectives enabling (i) the optimisation of the RBF kernel parameter $\gamma$ within a probabilistic framework, (ii) the optimisation of the model complexity, and (iii) an efficient transfer of knowledge across tasks. The experimental results show that this framework can lead to significant performance improvements compared to the state-of-the-art methods in multitask nonlinear regression.

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. Recent studies have shown promising results using machine learning (ML) models to advance subseasonal forecasting (SSF), but several open questions remain. First, several past approaches use the average of an ensemble of physics-based forecasts as an input feature of these models. However, ensemble forecasts contain information that can aid prediction beyond only the ensemble mean. Second, past methods have focused on average performance, whereas forecasts of extreme events are far more important for planning and mitigation purposes. Third, climate forecasts correspond to a spatially-varying collection of forecasts, and different methods account for spatial variability in the response differently. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. This paper describes the application of a variety of ML methods used to predict monthly average precipitation and two meter temperature using physics-based predictions (ensemble forecasts) and observational data such as relative humidity, pressure at sea level, or geopotential height, two weeks in advance for the whole continental United States. Regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models are considered. The proposed models outperform common baselines such as historical averages (or quantiles) and ensemble averages (or quantiles). This paper further includes an investigation of feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble average, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.