A significant challenge for predictive maintenance in the pulp-and-paper industry is the infrequency of paper breaks during the production process. In this article, operational data is analyzed from a paper manufacturing machine in which paper breaks are relatively rare but have a high economic impact. Utilizing a dataset comprising 18,398 instances derived from a quality assurance protocol, we address the scarcity of break events (124 cases) that pose a challenge for machine learning predictive models. With the help of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), we implement a novel data augmentation framework. This method ensures that the synthetic data mirrors the distribution of the real operational data but also seeks to enhance the performance metrics of predictive modeling. Before and after the data augmentation, we evaluate three different machine learning algorithms-Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR). Utilizing the CTGAN-enhanced dataset, our study achieved significant improvements in predictive maintenance performance metrics. The efficacy of CTGAN in addressing data scarcity was evident, with the models' detection of machine breaks (Class 1) improving by over 30% for Decision Trees, 20% for Random Forest, and nearly 90% for Logistic Regression. With this methodological advancement, this study contributes to industrial quality control and maintenance scheduling by addressing rare event prediction in manufacturing processes.

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials allows for the combination of datasets with unconfounded treatment assignment to better estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. This paper discusses several non-parametric approaches for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using data from multiple trials. We extend single-study methods to a scenario with multiple trials and explore their performance through a simulation study, with data generation scenarios that have differing levels of cross-trial heterogeneity. The simulations demonstrate that methods that directly allow for heterogeneity of the treatment effect across trials perform better than methods that do not, and that the choice of single-study method matters based on the functional form of the treatment effect. Finally, we discuss which methods perform well in each setting and then apply them to four randomized controlled trials to examine effect heterogeneity of treatments for major depressive disorder.

We revisit the problem of efficiently learning the underlying parameters of Ising models from data. Current algorithmic approaches achieve essentially optimal sample complexity when given i.i.d. samples from the stationary measure and the underlying model satisfies "width" bounds on the total $\ell_1$ interaction involving each node. We show that a simple existing approach based on node-wise logistic regression provably succeeds at recovering the underlying model in several new settings where these assumptions are violated: (1) Given dynamically generated data from a wide variety of local Markov chains, like block or round-robin dynamics, logistic regression recovers the parameters with optimal sample complexity up to $\log\log n$ factors. This generalizes the specialized algorithm of Bresler, Gamarnik, and Shah [IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory'18] for structure recovery in bounded degree graphs from Glauber dynamics. (2) For the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model of spin glasses, given $\mathsf{poly}(n)$ independent samples, logistic regression recovers the parameters in most of the known high-temperature regime via a simple reduction to weaker structural properties of the measure. This improves on recent work of Anari, Jain, Koehler, Pham, and Vuong [ArXiv'23] which gives distribution learning at higher temperature. (3) As a simple byproduct of our techniques, logistic regression achieves an exponential improvement in learning from samples in the M-regime of data considered by Dutt, Lokhov, Vuffray, and Misra [ICML'21] as well as novel guarantees for learning from the adversarial Glauber dynamics of Chin, Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon [ArXiv'23]. Our approach thus significantly generalizes the elegant analysis of Wu, Sanghavi, and Dimakis [Neurips'19] without any algorithmic modification.

Online games are dynamic environments where players interact with each other, which offers a rich setting for understanding how players negotiate their way through the game to an ultimate victory. This work studies online player interactions during the turn-based strategy game, Diplomacy. We annotated a dataset of over 10,000 chat messages for different negotiation strategies and empirically examined their importance in predicting long- and short-term game outcomes. Although negotiation strategies can be predicted reasonably accurately through the linguistic modeling of the chat messages, more is needed for predicting short-term outcomes such as trustworthiness. On the other hand, they are essential in graph-aware reinforcement learning approaches to predict long-term outcomes, such as a player's success, based on their prior negotiation history. We close with a discussion of the implications and impact of our work. The dataset is available at https://github.com/kj2013/claff-diplomacy.

Consider a semi-supervised setting with a labeled dataset of binary responses and predictors and an unlabeled dataset with only the predictors. Logistic regression is equivalent to an exponential tilt model in the labeled population. For semi-supervised estimation, we develop further analysis and understanding of a statistical approach using exponential tilt mixture (ETM) models and maximum nonparametric likelihood estimation, while allowing that the class proportions may differ between the unlabeled and labeled data. We derive asymptotic properties of ETM-based estimation and demonstrate improved efficiency over supervised logistic regression in a random sampling setup and an outcome-stratified sampling setup previously used. Moreover, we reconcile such efficiency improvement with the existing semiparametric efficiency theory when the class proportions in the unlabeled and labeled data are restricted to be the same. We also provide a simulation study to numerically illustrate our theoretical findings.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) are typically viewed as pure prediction algorithms, and their strong predictive performance has led to their use in many machine-learning applications. However, their flexibility comes with an interpretability trade-off; thus, FNNs have been historically less popular among statisticians. Nevertheless, classical statistical theory, such as significance testing and uncertainty quantification, is still relevant. Supplementing FNNs with methods of statistical inference, and covariate-effect visualisations, can shift the focus away from black-box prediction and make FNNs more akin to traditional statistical models. This can allow for more inferential analysis, and, hence, make FNNs more accessible within the statistical-modelling context.

Many studies employ the analysis of time-to-event data that incorporates competing risks and right censoring. Most methods and software packages are geared towards analyzing data that comes from a continuous failure time distribution. However, failure-time data may sometimes be discrete either because time is inherently discrete or due to imprecise measurement. This paper introduces a novel estimation procedure for discrete-time survival analysis with competing events. The proposed approach offers two key advantages over existing procedures: first, it expedites the estimation process for a large number of unique failure time points; second, it allows for straightforward integration and application of widely used regularized regression and screening methods. We illustrate the benefits of our proposed approach by conducting a comprehensive simulation study. Additionally, we showcase the utility of our procedure by estimating a survival model for the length of stay of patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit, considering three competing events: discharge to home, transfer to another medical facility, and in-hospital death.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prevalent chronic liver disorder characterized by the excessive accumulation of fat in the liver in individuals who do not consume significant amounts of alcohol, including risk factors like obesity, insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, etc. We aim to identify subgroups of NAFLD patients based on demographic, clinical, and genetic characteristics for precision medicine. The genomic and phenotypic data (3,408 cases and 4,739 controls) for this study were gathered from participants in Mayo Clinic Tapestry Study (IRB#19-000001) and their electric health records, including their demographic, clinical, and comorbidity data, and the genotype information through whole exome sequencing performed at Helix using the Exome+$^\circledR$ Assay according to standard procedure (www$.$helix$.$com). Factors highly relevant to NAFLD were determined by the chi-square test and stepwise backward-forward regression model. Latent class analysis (LCA) was performed on NAFLD cases using significant indicator variables to identify subgroups. The optimal clustering revealed 5 latent subgroups from 2,013 NAFLD patients (mean age 60.6 years and 62.1% women), while a polygenic risk score based on 6 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants and disease outcomes were used to analyze the subgroups. The groups are characterized by metabolic syndrome, obesity, different comorbidities, psychoneurological factors, and genetic factors. Odds ratios were utilized to compare the risk of complex diseases, such as fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as well as liver failure between the clusters. Cluster 2 has a significantly higher complex disease outcome compared to other clusters. Keywords: Fatty liver disease; Polygenic risk score; Precision medicine; Deep phenotyping; NAFLD comorbidities; Latent class analysis.

Current optical vegetation indices (VIs) for monitoring forest ecosystems are widely used in various applications. However, continuous monitoring based on optical satellite data can be hampered by atmospheric effects such as clouds. On the contrary, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data can offer insightful and systematic forest monitoring with complete time series due to signal penetration through clouds and day and night acquisitions. The goal of this work is to overcome the issues affecting optical data with SAR data and serve as a substitute for estimating optical VIs for forests using machine learning. Time series of four VIs (LAI, FAPAR, EVI and NDVI) were estimated using multitemporal Sentinel-1 SAR and ancillary data. This was enabled by creating a paired multi-temporal and multi-modal dataset in Google Earth Engine (GEE), including temporally and spatially aligned Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, digital elevation model (DEM), weather and land cover datasets (MMT-GEE). The use of ancillary features generated from DEM and weather data improved the results. The open-source Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) approach, auto-sklearn, outperformed Random Forest Regression for three out of four VIs, while a 1-hour optimization length was enough to achieve sufficient results with an R2 of 69-84% low errors (0.05-0.32 of MAE depending on VI). Great agreement was also found for selected case studies in the time series analysis and in the spatial comparison between the original and estimated SAR-based VIs. In general, compared to VIs from currently freely available optical satellite data and available global VI products, a better temporal resolution (up to 240 measurements/year) and a better spatial resolution (20 m) were achieved using estimated SAR-based VIs. A great advantage of the SAR-based VI is the ability to detect abrupt forest changes with a sub-weekly temporal accuracy.