There is a significant interest in exploring non-linear associations among multiple images derived from diverse imaging modalities. While there is a growing literature on image-on-image regression to delineate predictive inference of an image based on multiple images, existing approaches have limitations in efficiently borrowing information between multiple imaging modalities in the prediction of an image. Building on the literature of Variational Auto Encoders (VAEs), this article proposes a novel approach, referred to as Integrative Variational Autoencoder (\texttt{InVA}) method, which borrows information from multiple images obtained from different sources to draw predictive inference of an image. The proposed approach captures complex non-linear association between the outcome image and input images, while allowing rapid computation. Numerical results demonstrate substantial advantages of \texttt{InVA} over VAEs, which typically do not allow borrowing information between input images. The proposed framework offers highly accurate predictive inferences for costly positron emission topography (PET) from multiple measures of cortical structure in human brain scans readily available from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is a federated learning paradigm where multiple participants, who share the same set of samples but hold different features, jointly train machine learning models. Although VFL enables collaborative machine learning without sharing raw data, it is still susceptible to various privacy threats. In this paper, we conduct the first comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art in privacy attacks and defenses in VFL. We provide taxonomies for both attacks and defenses, based on their characterizations, and discuss open challenges and future research directions. Specifically, our discussion is structured around the model's life cycle, by delving into the privacy threats encountered during different stages of machine learning and their corresponding countermeasures. This survey not only serves as a resource for the research community but also offers clear guidance and actionable insights for practitioners to safeguard data privacy throughout the model's life cycle.

Mixture of experts (MoE) model is a statistical machine learning design that aggregates multiple expert networks using a softmax gating function in order to form a more intricate and expressive model. Despite being commonly used in several applications owing to their scalability, the mathematical and statistical properties of MoE models are complex and difficult to analyze. As a result, previous theoretical works have primarily focused on probabilistic MoE models by imposing the impractical assumption that the data are generated from a Gaussian MoE model. In this work, we investigate the performance of the least squares estimators (LSE) under a deterministic MoE model where the data are sampled according to a regression model, a setting that has remained largely unexplored. We establish a condition called strong identifiability to characterize the convergence behavior of various types of expert functions. We demonstrate that the rates for estimating strongly identifiable experts, namely the widely used feed forward networks with activation functions $\mathrm{sigmoid}(\cdot)$ and $\tanh(\cdot)$, are substantially faster than those of polynomial experts, which we show to exhibit a surprising slow estimation rate. Our findings have important practical implications for expert selection.

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in various fields such as medical and social sciences. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if distributed data across multiple parties can be centralized. However, it is difficult to aggregate such data if they contain privacy information. To address this issue, we proposed data collaboration double machine learning (DC-DML), a method that can estimate CATE models with privacy preservation of distributed data, and evaluated the method through numerical experiments. Our contributions are summarized in the following three points. First, our method enables estimation and testing of semi-parametric CATE models without iterative communication on distributed data. Semi-parametric or non-parametric CATE models enable estimation and testing that is more robust to model mis-specification than parametric models. However, to our knowledge, no communication-efficient method has been proposed for estimating and testing semi-parametric or non-parametric CATE models on distributed data. Second, our method enables collaborative estimation between different parties as well as multiple time points because the dimensionality-reduced intermediate representations can be accumulated. Third, our method performed as well or better than other methods in evaluation experiments using synthetic, semi-synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a fast method for solving compressed sensing, Lasso regression, and Logistic Lasso regression problems that iteratively runs an appropriate solver using an active set approach. We design a strategy to update the active set that achieves a large speedup over a single call of several solvers, including gradient projection for sparse reconstruction (GPSR), lassoglm of Matlab, and glmnet. For compressed sensing, the hybrid of our method and GPSR is 31.41 times faster than GPSR on average for Gaussian ensembles and 25.64 faster on average for binary ensembles. For Lasso regression, the hybrid of our method and GPSR achieves a 30.67-fold average speedup in our experiments. In our experiments on Logistic Lasso regression, the hybrid of our method and lassoglm gives an 11.95-fold average speedup, and the hybrid of our method and glmnet gives a 1.40-fold average speedup.

We show that in-context learning emerges in transformers in discrete developmental stages, when they are trained on either language modeling or linear regression tasks. We introduce two methods for detecting the milestones that separate these stages, by probing the geometry of the population loss in both parameter space and function space. We study the stages revealed by these new methods using a range of behavioral and structural metrics to establish their validity.

Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we developed linear regression models capable of predicting seismic intensity distributions based on earthquake parameters: location, depth, and magnitude. Because it is completely data-driven, it can predict intensity distributions without geographical information. The dataset comprises seismic intensity data from earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Japan between 1997 and 2020, specifically containing 1,857 instances of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater, sourced from the Japan Meteorological Agency. We trained both regression and classification models and combined them to take advantage of both to create a hybrid model. The proposed model outperformed commonly used Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in terms of the correlation coefficient, F1 score, and MCC. Furthermore, the proposed model can predict even abnormal seismic intensity distributions, a task at conventional GMPEs often struggle.

In the last 5 years, the availability of large audio datasets in African countries has opened unlimited opportunities to build machine intelligence (MI) technologies that are closer to the people and speak, learn, understand, and do businesses in local languages, including for those who cannot read and write. Unfortunately, these audio datasets are not fully exploited by current MI tools, leaving several Africans out of MI business opportunities. Additionally, many state-of-the-art MI models are not culture-aware, and the ethics of their adoption indexes are questionable. The lack thereof is a major drawback in many applications in Africa. This paper summarizes recent developments in machine intelligence in Africa from a multi-layer multiscale and culture-aware ethics perspective, showcasing MI use cases in 54 African countries through 400 articles on MI research, industry, government actions, as well as uses in art, music, the informal economy, and small businesses in Africa. The survey also opens discussions on the reliability of MI rankings and indexes in the African continent as well as algorithmic definitions of unclear terms used in MI.

In longitudinal observational studies with a time-to-event outcome, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios within the study cohort. The g-formula is a particularly useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula approach, we developed a more adaptable Bayesian g-formula estimator. This estimator facilitates both longitudinal predictive and causal inference. It incorporates Bayesian additive regression trees in the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to mitigate bias due to model misspecification. Specifically, we introduce a more general class of g-formulas for discrete survival data. These formulas can incorporate the longitudinal balancing scores, which serve as an effective method for dimension reduction and are vital when dealing with an expanding array of time-varying confounders. The minimum sufficient formulation of these longitudinal balancing scores is linked to the nature of treatment regimes, whether static or dynamic. For each type of treatment regime, we provide posterior sampling algorithms, which are grounded in the Bayesian additive regression trees framework. We have conducted simulation studies to illustrate the empirical performance of our proposed Bayesian g-formula estimators, and to compare them with existing parametric estimators. We further demonstrate the practical utility of our methods in real-world scenarios using data from the Yale New Haven Health System's electronic health records.

We introduce efficient plug-in (EP) learning, a novel framework for the estimation of heterogeneous causal contrasts, such as the conditional average treatment effect and conditional relative risk. The EP-learning framework enjoys the same oracle-efficiency as Neyman-orthogonal learning strategies, such as DR-learning and R-learning, while addressing some of their primary drawbacks, including that (i) their practical applicability can be hindered by loss function non-convexity; and (ii) they may suffer from poor performance and instability due to inverse probability weighting and pseudo-outcomes that violate bounds. To avoid these drawbacks, EP-learner constructs an efficient plug-in estimator of the population risk function for the causal contrast, thereby inheriting the stability and robustness properties of plug-in estimation strategies like T-learning. Under reasonable conditions, EP-learners based on empirical risk minimization are oracle-efficient, exhibiting asymptotic equivalence to the minimizer of an oracle-efficient one-step debiased estimator of the population risk function. In simulation experiments, we illustrate that EP-learners of the conditional average treatment effect and conditional relative risk outperform state-of-the-art competitors, including T-learner, R-learner, and DR-learner. Open-source implementations of the proposed methods are available in our R package hte3.