Laplacian based nonparametric regression is a widely used approach in machine learning that leverages the Laplacian Eigenmaps algorithm to perform regression tasks without relying on explicit parametric models. The nonparametric nature of the approach makes it flexible and adaptable to data generating process without imposing strict assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between the response and the covariates. Existing theoretical studies of this approach are restricted to establishing minimax rates of convergence and adaptivity properties when the true regression function lies in Sobolev spaces; see Section 1.1 for details. Such spaces are inherently smooth in nature and exclude important function classes in nonparametric statistics, such as piecewise constant or polynomial functions, bump functions and other such nonsmooth function classes. In this work, using the framework of fractional Laplacians, we propose a novel approach called Principal Component Regression using Fractional Laplacian Eigenmaps (PCR-FLE) for nonsmooth and nonparametric regression. The PCR-FLE algorithm generalizes the PCR-LE algorithm by Green et al. (2023) and the PCR-WLE algorithm by Shi et al. (2024), and is designed to naturally handle the case when the true regression function lies in an L

Sparse linear regression (SLR) is a well-studied problem in statistics where one is given a design matrix $X\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$ and a response vector $y=X\theta^*+w$ for a $k$-sparse vector $\theta^*$ (that is, $\|\theta^*\|_0\leq k$) and small, arbitrary noise $w$, and the goal is to find a $k$-sparse $\widehat{\theta} \in \mathbb{R}^n$ that minimizes the mean squared prediction error $\frac{1}{m}\|X\widehat{\theta}-X\theta^*\|^2_2$. While $\ell_1$-relaxation methods such as basis pursuit, Lasso, and the Dantzig selector solve SLR when the design matrix is well-conditioned, no general algorithm is known, nor is there any formal evidence of hardness in an average-case setting with respect to all efficient algorithms. We give evidence of average-case hardness of SLR w.r.t. all efficient algorithms assuming the worst-case hardness of lattice problems. Specifically, we give an instance-by-instance reduction from a variant of the bounded distance decoding (BDD) problem on lattices to SLR, where the condition number of the lattice basis that defines the BDD instance is directly related to the restricted eigenvalue condition of the design matrix, which characterizes some of the classical statistical-computational gaps for sparse linear regression. Also, by appealing to worst-case to average-case reductions from the world of lattices, this shows hardness for a distribution of SLR instances; while the design matrices are ill-conditioned, the resulting SLR instances are in the identifiable regime. Furthermore, for well-conditioned (essentially) isotropic Gaussian design matrices, where Lasso is known to behave well in the identifiable regime, we show hardness of outputting any good solution in the unidentifiable regime where there are many solutions, assuming the worst-case hardness of standard and well-studied lattice problems.

In this paper, we consider a deterministic online linear regression model where we allow the responses to be multivariate. To address this problem, we introduce MultiVAW, a method that extends the well-known Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth algorithm to the multivariate setting, and show that it also enjoys logarithmic regret in time. We apply our results to the online hierarchical forecasting problem and recover an algorithm from this literature as a special case, allowing us to relax the hypotheses usually made for its analysis.

Addressing heart failure (HF) as a prevalent global health concern poses difficulties in implementing innovative approaches for enhanced patient care. Predicting mortality rates in HF patients, in particular, is difficult yet critical, necessitating individualized care, proactive management, and enabling educated decision-making to enhance outcomes. Recently, the significance of voice biomarkers coupled with Machine Learning (ML) has surged, demonstrating remarkable efficacy, particularly in predicting heart failure. The synergy of voice analysis and ML algorithms provides a non-invasive and easily accessible means to evaluate patients' health. However, there is a lack of voice biomarkers for predicting mortality rates among heart failure patients with standardized speech protocols. Here, we demonstrate a powerful and effective ML model for predicting mortality rates in hospitalized HF patients through the utilization of voice biomarkers. By seamlessly integrating voice biomarkers into routine patient monitoring, this strategy has the potential to improve patient outcomes, optimize resource allocation, and advance patient-centered HF management. In this study, a Machine Learning system, specifically a logistic regression model, is trained to predict patients' 5-year mortality rates using their speech as input. The model performs admirably and consistently, as demonstrated by cross-validation and statistical approaches (p-value < 0.001). Furthermore, integrating NT-proBNP, a diagnostic biomarker in HF, improves the model's predictive accuracy substantially.

We consider the problem of linear regression with self-selection bias in the unknown-index setting, as introduced in recent work by Cherapanamjeri, Daskalakis, Ilyas, and Zampetakis [STOC 2023]. In this model, one observes $m$ i.i.d. samples $(\mathbf{x}_{\ell},z_{\ell})_{\ell=1}^m$ where $z_{\ell}=\max_{i\in [k]}\{\mathbf{x}_{\ell}^T\mathbf{w}_i+\eta_{i,\ell}\}$, but the maximizing index $i_{\ell}$ is unobserved. Here, the $\mathbf{x}_{\ell}$ are assumed to be $\mathcal{N}(0,I_n)$ and the noise distribution $\mathbf{\eta}_{\ell}\sim \mathcal{D}$ is centered and independent of $\mathbf{x}_{\ell}$. We provide a novel and near optimally sample-efficient (in terms of $k$) algorithm to recover $\mathbf{w}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{w}_k\in \mathbb{R}^n$ up to additive $\ell_2$-error $\varepsilon$ with polynomial sample complexity $\tilde{O}(n)\cdot \mathsf{poly}(k,1/\varepsilon)$ and significantly improved time complexity $\mathsf{poly}(n,k,1/\varepsilon)+O(\log(k)/\varepsilon)^{O(k)}$. When $k=O(1)$, our algorithm runs in $\mathsf{poly}(n,1/\varepsilon)$ time, generalizing the polynomial guarantee of an explicit moment matching algorithm of Cherapanamjeri, et al. for $k=2$ and when it is known that $\mathcal{D}=\mathcal{N}(0,I_k)$. Our algorithm succeeds under significantly relaxed noise assumptions, and therefore also succeeds in the related setting of max-linear regression where the added noise is taken outside the maximum. For this problem, our algorithm is efficient in a much larger range of $k$ than the state-of-the-art due to Ghosh, Pananjady, Guntuboyina, and Ramchandran [IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2022] for not too small $\varepsilon$, and leads to improved algorithms for any $\varepsilon$ by providing a warm start for existing local convergence methods.

Advancements in technology are steering attention toward creating comfortable and acceptable driving characteristics in autonomous vehicles. Ensuring a safe and comfortable ride experience is vital for the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, as mismatches in driving styles between humans and autonomous systems can impact passenger confidence. Current driving functions have fixed parameters, and there is no universally agreed-upon driving style for autonomous vehicles. Integrating driving style preferences into automated vehicles may enhance acceptance and reduce uncertainty, expediting their adoption. A controlled vehicle study (N = 62) was conducted with a variety of German participants to identify the individual lateral driving behavior of human drivers, specifically emphasizing rural roads. We introduce novel indicators for assessing stationary and transient curve negotiation, directly applicable in developing personalized lateral driving functions. To assess the predictability of these indicators using self-reports, we introduce the MDSI-DE, the German version of the Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory. The correlation analysis between MDSI factor scores and proposed indicators showed modest but significant associations, primarily with acceleration and jerk statistics while the in-depth lateral driving behavior turned out to be highly driver-heterogeneous. The dataset including the anonymized socio-demographics and questionnaire responses, the raw vehicle measurements including labels, and the derived driving behavior indicators are publicly available at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/jhaselberger/spodb-subject-study-of-lateral-vehicle-guidance.

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across multiple segments of the entire population and only make local assumptions about the differences between training and test (deployment) distributions within each segment. We propose a two-stage multiply robust estimation method to improve model performance on each individual segment for tabular data analysis. The method involves fitting a linear combination of the based models, learned using clusters of training data from multiple segments, followed by a refinement step for each segment. Our method is designed to be implemented with commonly used off-the-shelf machine learning models. We establish theoretical guarantees on the generalization bound of the method on the test risk. With extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method substantially improves over existing alternatives in prediction accuracy and robustness on both regression and classification tasks. We also assess its effectiveness on a user city prediction dataset from a large technology company.

We study computational-statistical gaps for improper learning in sparse linear regression. More specifically, given $n$ samples from a $k$-sparse linear model in dimension $d$, we ask what is the minimum sample complexity to efficiently (in time polynomial in $d$, $k$, and $n$) find a potentially dense estimate for the regression vector that achieves non-trivial prediction error on the $n$ samples. Information-theoretically this can be achieved using $\Theta(k \log (d/k))$ samples. Yet, despite its prominence in the literature, there is no polynomial-time algorithm known to achieve the same guarantees using less than $\Theta(d)$ samples without additional restrictions on the model. Similarly, existing hardness results are either restricted to the proper setting, in which the estimate must be sparse as well, or only apply to specific algorithms. We give evidence that efficient algorithms for this task require at least (roughly) $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. In particular, we show that an improper learning algorithm for sparse linear regression can be used to solve sparse PCA problems (with a negative spike) in their Wishart form, in regimes in which efficient algorithms are widely believed to require at least $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. We complement our reduction with low-degree and statistical query lower bounds for the sparse PCA problems from which we reduce. Our hardness results apply to the (correlated) random design setting in which the covariates are drawn i.i.d. from a mean-zero Gaussian distribution with unknown covariance.

We provide an improved analysis of standard differentially private gradient descent for linear regression under the squared error loss. Under modest assumptions on the input, we characterize the distribution of the iterate at each time step. Our analysis leads to new results on the algorithm's accuracy: for a proper fixed choice of hyperparameters, the sample complexity depends only linearly on the dimension of the data. This matches the dimension-dependence of the (non-private) ordinary least squares estimator as well as that of recent private algorithms that rely on sophisticated adaptive gradient-clipping schemes (Varshney et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2023). Our analysis of the iterates' distribution also allows us to construct confidence intervals for the empirical optimizer which adapt automatically to the variance of the algorithm on a particular data set. We validate our theorems through experiments on synthetic data.

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for scientific discovery, enabling researchers to extract meaningful insights from complex datasets. For instance, it has facilitated the identification of disease-predictive genes from gene expression data, significantly advancing healthcare. However, the traditional process for analyzing such datasets demands substantial human effort and expertise for the data selection, processing, and analysis. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework, a Team of AI-made Scientists (TAIS), designed to streamline the scientific discovery pipeline. TAIS comprises simulated roles, including a project manager, data engineer, and domain expert, each represented by a Large Language Model (LLM). These roles collaborate to replicate the tasks typically performed by data scientists, with a specific focus on identifying disease-predictive genes. Furthermore, we have curated a benchmark dataset to assess TAIS's effectiveness in gene identification, demonstrating our system's potential to significantly enhance the efficiency and scope of scientific exploration. Our findings represent a solid step towards automating scientific discovery through large language models.