Frontier AI systems, including large language models (LLMs), hold increasing influence over the epistemology of human users. Such influence can reinforce prevailing societal values, potentially contributing to the lock-in of misguided moral beliefs and, consequently, the perpetuation of problematic moral practices on a broad scale. We introduce progress alignment as a technical solution to mitigate this imminent risk. Progress alignment algorithms learn to emulate the mechanics of human moral progress, thereby addressing the susceptibility of existing alignment methods to contemporary moral blindspots. To empower research in progress alignment, we introduce ProgressGym, an experimental framework allowing the learning of moral progress mechanics from history, in order to facilitate future progress in real-world moral decisions. Leveraging 9 centuries of historical text and 18 historical LLMs, ProgressGym enables codification of real-world progress alignment challenges into concrete benchmarks. Specifically, we introduce three core challenges: tracking evolving values (PG-Follow), preemptively anticipating moral progress (PG-Predict), and regulating the feedback loop between human and AI value shifts (PG-Coevolve). Alignment methods without a temporal dimension are inapplicable to these tasks. In response, we present lifelong and extrapolative algorithms as baseline methods of progress alignment, and build an open leaderboard soliciting novel algorithms and challenges. The framework and the leaderboard are available at https://github.com/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym and https://huggingface.co/spaces/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym-LeaderBoard respectively.

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression model that is commonly used in causal inference and beyond. Its strong predictive performance is supported by theoretical guarantees that its posterior distribution concentrates around the true regression function at optimal rates under various data generative settings and for appropriate prior choices. In this paper, we show that the BART sampler often converges slowly, confirming empirical observations by other researchers. Assuming discrete covariates, we show that, while the BART posterior concentrates on a set comprising all optimal tree structures (smallest bias and complexity), the Markov chain's hitting time for this set increases with $n$ (training sample size), under several common data generative settings. As $n$ increases, the approximate BART posterior thus becomes increasingly different from the exact posterior (for the same number of MCMC samples), contrasting with earlier concentration results on the exact posterior. This contrast is highlighted by our simulations showing worsening frequentist undercoverage for approximate posterior intervals and a growing ratio between the MSE of the approximate posterior and that obtainable by artificially improving convergence via averaging multiple sampler chains. Finally, based on our theoretical insights, possibilities are discussed to improve the BART sampler convergence performance.

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded variable known as the instrument, is a standard technique for learning causal relationships between confounded action, outcome, and context variables. Most recent IV regression algorithms use a two-stage approach, where a deep neural network (DNN) estimator learnt in the first stage is directly plugged into the second stage, in which another DNN is used to estimate the causal effect. Naively plugging the estimator can cause heavy bias in the second stage, especially when regularisation bias is present in the first stage estimator. We propose DML-IV, a non-linear IV regression method that reduces the bias in two-stage IV regressions and effectively learns high-performing policies. We derive a novel learning objective to reduce bias and design the DML-IV algorithm following the double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. The learnt DML-IV estimator has strong convergence rate and $O(N^{-1/2})$ suboptimality guarantees that match those when the dataset is unconfounded. DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art IV regression methods on IV regression benchmarks and learns high-performing policies in the presence of instruments.

We use transductive regression techniques to learn mappings between source and target features of given parallel corpora and use these mappings to generate machine translation outputs. We show the effectiveness of $L_1$ regularized regression (\textit{lasso}) to learn the mappings between sparsely observed feature sets versus $L_2$ regularized regression. Proper selection of training instances plays an important role to learn correct feature mappings within limited computational resources and at expected accuracy levels. We introduce \textit{dice} instance selection method for proper selection of training instances, which plays an important role to learn correct feature mappings for improving the source and target coverage of the training set. We show that $L_1$ regularized regression performs better than $L_2$ regularized regression both in regression measurements and in the translation experiments using graph decoding. We present encouraging results when translating from German to English and Spanish to English. We also demonstrate results when the phrase table of a phrase-based decoder is replaced with the mappings we find with the regression model.

"Accuracy-on-the-line" is a widely observed phenomenon in machine learning, where a model's accuracy on in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) data is positively correlated across different hyperparameters and data configurations. But when does this useful relationship break down? In this work, we explore its robustness. The key observation is that noisy data and the presence of nuisance features can be sufficient to shatter the Accuracy-on-the-line phenomenon. In these cases, ID and OOD accuracy can become negatively correlated, leading to "Accuracy-on-the-wrong-line". This phenomenon can also occur in the presence of spurious (shortcut) features, which tend to overshadow the more complex signal (core, non-spurious) features, resulting in a large nuisance feature space. Moreover, scaling to larger datasets does not mitigate this undesirable behavior and may even exacerbate it. We formally prove a lower bound on Out-of-distribution (OOD) error in a linear classification model, characterizing the conditions on the noise and nuisance features for a large OOD error. We finally demonstrate this phenomenon across both synthetic and real datasets with noisy data and nuisance features.

As the adoption of explainable AI (XAI) continues to expand, the urgency to address its privacy implications intensifies. Despite a growing corpus of research in AI privacy and explainability, there is little attention on privacy-preserving model explanations. This article presents the first thorough survey about privacy attacks on model explanations and their countermeasures. Our contribution to this field comprises a thorough analysis of research papers with a connected taxonomy that facilitates the categorisation of privacy attacks and countermeasures based on the targeted explanations. This work also includes an initial investigation into the causes of privacy leaks. Finally, we discuss unresolved issues and prospective research directions uncovered in our analysis. This survey aims to be a valuable resource for the research community and offers clear insights for those new to this domain. To support ongoing research, we have established an online resource repository, which will be continuously updated with new and relevant findings. Interested readers are encouraged to access our repository at https://github.com/tamlhp/awesome-privex.

This paper introduces the Bi-linear consensus Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (Bi-cADMM), aimed at solving large-scale regularized Sparse Machine Learning (SML) problems defined over a network of computational nodes. Mathematically, these are stated as minimization problems with convex local loss functions over a global decision vector, subject to an explicit $\ell_0$ norm constraint to enforce the desired sparsity. The considered SML problem generalizes different sparse regression and classification models, such as sparse linear and logistic regression, sparse softmax regression, and sparse support vector machines. Bi-cADMM leverages a bi-linear consensus reformulation of the original non-convex SML problem and a hierarchical decomposition strategy that divides the problem into smaller sub-problems amenable to parallel computing. In Bi-cADMM, this decomposition strategy is based on a two-phase approach. Initially, it performs a sample decomposition of the data and distributes local datasets across computational nodes. Subsequently, a delayed feature decomposition of the data is conducted on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) available to each node. This methodology allows Bi-cADMM to undertake computationally intensive data-centric computations on GPUs, while CPUs handle more cost-effective computations. The proposed algorithm is implemented within an open-source Python package called Parallel Sparse Fitting Toolbox (PsFiT), which is publicly available. Finally, computational experiments demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of our algorithm through numerical benchmarks across various SML problems featuring distributed datasets.

We propose an efficient offline pointing calibration method for operational antenna systems which does not require any downtime. Our approach minimizes the calibration effort and exploits technical signal information which is typically used for monitoring and control purposes in ground station operations. Using a standard antenna interface and data from an operational satellite contact, we come up with a robust strategy for training data set generation. On top of this, we learn the parameters of a suitable coordinate transform by means of linear regression. In our experiments, we show the usefulness of the method in a real-world setup.

This paper presents a succinct derivation of the training and generalization performance of a variety of high-dimensional ridge regression models using the basic tools of random matrix theory and free probability. We provide an introduction and review of recent results on these topics, aimed at readers with backgrounds in physics and deep learning. Analytic formulas for the training and generalization errors are obtained in a few lines of algebra directly from the properties of the $S$-transform of free probability. This allows for a straightforward identification of the sources of power-law scaling in model performance. We compute the generalization error of a broad class of random feature models. We find that in all models, the $S$-transform corresponds to the train-test generalization gap, and yields an analogue of the generalized-cross-validation estimator. Using these techniques, we derive fine-grained bias-variance decompositions for a very general class of random feature models with structured covariates. These novel results allow us to discover a scaling regime for random feature models where the variance due to the features limits performance in the overparameterized setting. We also demonstrate how anisotropic weight structure in random feature models can limit performance and lead to nontrivial exponents for finite-width corrections in the overparameterized setting. Our results extend and provide a unifying perspective on earlier models of neural scaling laws.

Assume that we would like to estimate the expected value of a function $F$ with respect to a density $\pi$. We prove that if $\pi$ is close enough under KL divergence to another density $q$, an independent Metropolis sampler estimator that obtains samples from $\pi$ with proposal density $q$, enriched with a variance reduction computational strategy based on control variates, achieves smaller asymptotic variance than that of the crude Monte Carlo estimator. The control variates construction requires no extra computational effort but assumes that the expected value of $F$ under $q$ is analytically available. We illustrate this result by calculating the marginal likelihood in a linear regression model with prior-likelihood conflict and a non-conjugate prior. Furthermore, we propose an adaptive independent Metropolis algorithm that adapts the proposal density such that its KL divergence with the target is being reduced. We demonstrate its applicability in a Bayesian logistic and Gaussian process regression problems and we rigorously justify our asymptotic arguments under easily verifiable and essentially minimal conditions.