This paper advances the understanding of how the size of a machine learning model affects its vulnerability to poisoning, despite state-of-the-art defenses. Given isotropic random honest feature vectors and the geometric median (or clipped mean) as the robust gradient aggregator rule, we essentially prove that, perhaps surprisingly, linear and logistic regressions with $D \geq 169 H^2/P^2$ parameters are subject to arbitrary model manipulation by poisoners, where $H$ and $P$ are the numbers of honestly labeled and poisoned data points used for training. Our experiments go on exposing a fundamental tradeoff between augmenting model expressivity and increasing the poisoners' attack surface, on both synthetic data, and on MNIST & FashionMNIST data for linear classifiers with random features. We also discuss potential implications for source-based learning and neural nets.

In this paper, we address conditional testing problems through the conformal inference framework. We define the localized conformal p-values by inverting prediction intervals and prove their theoretical properties. These defined p-values are then applied to several conditional testing problems to illustrate their practicality. Firstly, we propose a conditional outlier detection procedure to test for outliers in the conditional distribution with finite-sample false discovery rate (FDR) control. We also introduce a novel conditional label screening problem with the goal of screening multivariate response variables and propose a screening procedure to control the family-wise error rate (FWER). Finally, we consider the two-sample conditional distribution test and define a weighted U-statistic through the aggregation of localized p-values. Numerical simulations and real-data examples validate the superior performance of our proposed strategies.

In the context of global energy strategy, accurate natural gas demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring efficient resource allocation and operational planning. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to cope with the growing complexity and variability of gas consumption patterns across diverse industries and commercial sectors. To address these challenges, we propose the first foundation model specifically tailored for natural gas demand forecasting. Foundation models, known for their ability to generalize across tasks and datasets, offer a robust solution to the limitations of traditional methods, such as the need for separate models for different customer segments and their limited generalization capabilities. Our approach leverages contrastive learning to improve prediction accuracy in real-world scenarios, particularly by tackling issues such as noise in historical consumption data and the potential misclassification of similar data samples, which can lead to degradation in the quaility of the representation and thus the accuracy of downstream forecasting tasks. By integrating advanced noise filtering techniques within the contrastive learning framework, our model enhances the quality of learned representations, leading to more accurate predictions. Furthermore, the model undergoes industry-specific fine-tuning during pretraining, enabling it to better capture the unique characteristics of gas consumption across various sectors. We conducted extensive experiments using a large-scale dataset from ENN Group, which includes data from over 10,000 industrial, commercial, and welfare-related customers across multiple regions. Our model outperformed existing state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating a relative improvement in MSE by 3.68\% and in MASE by 6.15\% compared to the best available model.

The global pandemic due to emergence of COVID 19 has created the unrivaled public health crisis. It has huge morbidity rate never comprehended in the recent decades. Researchers have made many efforts to find the optimal solution of this pandemic. Progressively, drug repurposing is an emergent and powerful strategy with saving cost, time, and labor. Lacking of identified repurposed drug candidates against COVID 19 demands more efforts to explore the potential inhibitors for effective cure. In this study, we used the combination of molecular docking and machine learning regression approaches to explore the potential inhibitors for the treatment of COVID 19. We calculated the binding affinities of these drugs to multitarget proteins using molecular docking process. We perform the QSAR modeling by employing various machine learning regression approaches to identify the potential inhibitors against COVID 19. Our findings with best scores of R2 and RMSE demonstrated that our proposed Decision Tree Regression (DTR) model is the most appropriate model to explore the potential inhibitors. We proposed five novel promising inhibitors with their respective Zinc IDs ZINC (3873365, 85432544, 8214470, 85536956, and 261494640) within the range of -19.7 kcal/mol to -12.6 kcal/mol. We further analyzed the physiochemical and pharmacokinetic properties of these most potent inhibitors to examine their behavior. The analysis of these properties is the key factor to promote an effective cure for public health. Our work constructs an efficient structure with which to probe the potential inhibitors against COVID-19, creating the combination of molecular docking with machine learning regression approaches.

Best performing approaches for scholarly document quality prediction are based on embedding models, which do not allow direct explanation of classifiers as distinct words no longer correspond to the input features for model training. Although model-agnostic explanation methods such as Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) can be applied, these produce results with questionable correspondence to the ML model. We introduce a new feature importance method, Self-model Rated Entities (SMER), for logistic regression-based classification models trained on word embeddings. We show that SMER has theoretically perfect fidelity with the explained model, as its prediction corresponds exactly to the average of predictions for individual words in the text. SMER allows us to reliably determine which words or entities positively contribute to predicting impactful articles. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation is performed through five diverse experiments conducted on 50.000 research papers from the CORD-19 corpus. Through an AOPC curve analysis, we experimentally demonstrate that SMER produces better explanations than LIME for logistic regression.

Neural networks are often regarded as "black boxes" due to their complex functions and numerous parameters, which poses significant challenges for interpretability. This study addresses these challenges by introducing methods to enhance the understanding of neural networks, focusing specifically on models with a single hidden layer. We establish a theoretical framework by demonstrating that the neural network estimator can be interpreted as a nonparametric regression model. Building on this foundation, we propose statistical tests to assess the significance of input neurons and introduce algorithms for dimensionality reduction, including clustering and (PCA), to simplify the network and improve its interpretability and accuracy. The key contributions of this study include the development of a bootstrapping technique for evaluating artificial neural network (ANN) performance, applying statistical tests and logistic regression to analyze hidden neurons, and assessing neuron efficiency. We also investigate the behavior of individual hidden neurons in relation to out-put neurons and apply these methodologies to the IDC and Iris datasets to validate their practical utility. This research advances the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence by presenting robust statistical frameworks for interpreting neural networks, thereby facilitating a clearer understanding of the relationships between inputs, outputs, and individual network components.

Accurate estimation of battery state of health is crucial for effective electric vehicle battery management. Here, we propose five health indicators that can be extracted online from real-world electric vehicle operation and develop a machine learning-based method to estimate the battery state of health. The proposed indicators provide physical insights into the energy and power fade of the battery and enable accurate capacity estimation even with partially missing data. Moreover, they can be computed for portions of the charging profile and real-world driving discharging conditions, facilitating real-time battery degradation estimation. The indicators are computed using experimental data from five cells aged under electric vehicle conditions, and a linear regression model is used to estimate the state of health. The results show that models trained with power autocorrelation and energy-based features achieve capacity estimation with maximum absolute percentage error within 1.5% to 2.5% .

Probing techniques for large language models (LLMs) have primarily focused on English, overlooking the vast majority of the world's languages. In this paper, we extend these probing methods to a multilingual context, investigating the behaviors of LLMs across diverse languages. We conduct experiments on several open-source LLM models, analyzing probing accuracy, trends across layers, and similarities between probing vectors for multiple languages. Our key findings reveal: (1) a consistent performance gap between high-resource and low-resource languages, with high-resource languages achieving significantly higher probing accuracy; (2) divergent layer-wise accuracy trends, where high-resource languages show substantial improvement in deeper layers similar to English; and (3) higher representational similarities among high-resource languages, with low-resource languages demonstrating lower similarities both among themselves and with high-resource languages. These results highlight significant disparities in LLMs' multilingual capabilities and emphasize the need for improved modeling of low-resource languages.

Probabilistic regression models trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), can sometimes overestimate variance to an unacceptable degree. This is mostly problematic in the multivariate domain. While univariate models often optimize the popular Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), in the multivariate domain, no such alternative to MLE has yet been widely accepted. The Energy Score - the most investigated alternative - notoriously lacks closed-form expressions and sensitivity to the correlation between target variables. In this paper, we propose Conditional CRPS: a multivariate strictly proper scoring rule that extends CRPS. We show that closed-form expressions exist for popular distributions and illustrate their sensitivity to correlation. We then show in a variety of experiments on both synthetic and real data, that Conditional CRPS often outperforms MLE, and produces results comparable to state-of-the-art non-parametric models, such as Distributional Random Forest (DRF).

One way to quantify exposure to air pollution and its constituents in epidemiologic studies is to use an individual's nearest monitor. This strategy results in potential inaccuracy in the actual personal exposure, introducing bias in estimating the health effects of air pollution and its constituents, especially when evaluating the causal effects of correlated multi-pollutant constituents measured with correlated error. This paper addresses estimation and inference for the causal effect of one constituent in the presence of other PM2.5 constituents, accounting for measurement error and correlations. We used a linear regression calibration model, fitted with generalized estimating equations in an external validation study, and extended a double/debiased machine learning (DML) approach to correct for measurement error and estimate the effect of interest in the main study. We demonstrated that the DML estimator with regression calibration is consistent and derived its asymptotic variance. Simulations showed that the proposed estimator reduced bias and attained nominal coverage probability across most simulation settings. We applied this method to assess the causal effects of PM2.5 constituents on cognitive function in the Nurses' Health Study and identified two PM2.5 constituents, Br and Mn, that showed a negative causal effect on cognitive function after measurement error correction.