In this paper, we extend the geometric descent method recently proposed by Bubeck, Lee and Singh to tackle nonsmooth and strongly convex composite problems. We prove that our proposed algorithm, dubbed geometric proximal gradient method (GeoPG), converges with a linear rate $(1-1/\sqrt{\kappa})$ and thus achieves the optimal rate among first-order methods, where $\kappa$ is the condition number of the problem. Numerical results on linear regression and logistic regression with elastic net regularization show that GeoPG compares favorably with Nesterov's accelerated proximal gradient method, especially when the problem is ill-conditioned.

Online sparse linear regression is the task of applying linear regression analysis to examples arriving sequentially subject to a resource constraint that a limited number of features of examples can be observed. Despite its importance in many practical applications, it has been recently shown that there is no polynomial-time sublinear-regret algorithm unless NP$\subseteq$BPP, and only an exponential-time sublinear-regret algorithm has been found. In this paper, we introduce mild assumptions to solve the problem.

In a regression task, a predictor is given a set of instances, along with a real value for each point. Subsequently, she has to identify the value of a new instance as accurately as possible. In this work, we initiate the study of strategic predictions in machine learning. We consider a regression task tackled by two players, where the payoff of each player is the proportion of the points she predicts more accurately than the other player. We first revise the probably approximately correct learning framework to deal with the case of a duel between two predictors. We then devise an algorithm which finds a linear regression predictor that is a best response to any (not necessarily linear) regression algorithm. We show that it has linearithmic sample complexity, and polynomial time complexity when the dimension of the instances domain is fixed. We also test our approach in a high-dimensional setting, and show it significantly defeats classical regression algorithms in the prediction duel. Together, our work introduces a novel machine learning task that lends itself well to current competitive online settings, provides its theoretical foundations, and illustrates its applicability.

We consider a learner's problem of acquiring data dynamically for training a regression model, where the training data are collected from strategic data sources. A fundamental challenge is to incentivize data holders to exert effort to improve the quality of their reported data, despite that the quality is not directly verifiable by the learner. In this work, we study a dynamic data acquisition process where data holders can contribute multiple times.

Given a task of predicting Y from X, a loss function L, and a set of probability distributions Gamma on (X,Y), what is the optimal decision rule minimizing the worst-case expected loss over Gamma? In this paper, we address this question by introducing a generalization of the maximum entropy principle. Applying this principle to sets of distributions with marginal on X constrained to be the empirical marginal, we provide a minimax interpretation of the maximum likelihood problem over generalized linear models as well as some popular regularization schemes. For quadratic and logarithmic loss functions we revisit well-known linear and logistic regression models. Moreover, for the 0-1 loss we derive a classifier which we call the minimax SVM. The minimax SVM minimizes the worst-case expected 0-1 loss over the proposed Gamma by solving a tractable optimization problem. We perform several numerical experiments to show the power of the minimax SVM in outperforming the SVM.

We introduce the framework of {\em blind regression} motivated by {\em matrix completion} for recommendation systems: given $m$ users, $n$ movies, and a subset of user-movie ratings, the goal is to predict the unobserved user-movie ratings given the data, i.e., to complete the partially observed matrix. Following the framework of non-parametric statistics, we posit that user $u$ and movie $i$ have features $x_1(u)$ and $x_2(i)$ respectively, and their corresponding rating $y(u,i)$ is a noisy measurement of $f(x_1(u), x_2(i))$ for some unknown function $f$. In contrast with classical regression, the features $x = (x_1(u), x_2(i))$ are not observed, making it challenging to apply standard regression methods to predict the unobserved ratings. Inspired by the classical Taylor's expansion for differentiable functions, we provide a prediction algorithm that is consistent for all Lipschitz functions. In fact, the analysis through our framework naturally leads to a variant of collaborative filtering, shedding insight into the widespread success of collaborative filtering in practice. Assuming each entry is sampled independently with probability at least $\max(m^{-1+\delta},n^{-1/2+\delta})$ with $\delta > 0$, we prove that the expected fraction of our estimates with error greater than $\epsilon$ is less than $\gamma^2 / \epsilon^2$ plus a polynomially decaying term, where $\gamma^2$ is the variance of the additive entry-wise noise term. Experiments with the MovieLens and Netflix datasets suggest that our algorithm provides principled improvements over basic collaborative filtering and is competitive with matrix factorization methods.

The process of learning new behaviors over time is a problem of great interest in both neuroscience and artificial intelligence. However, most standard analyses of animal training data either treat behavior as fixed or track only coarse performance statistics (e.g., accuracy, bias), providing limited insight into the evolution of the policies governing behavior. To overcome these limitations, we propose a dynamic psychophysical model that efficiently tracks trial-to-trial changes in behavior over the course of training. Our model consists of a dynamic logistic regression model, parametrized by a set of time-varying weights that express dependence on sensory stimuli as well as task-irrelevant covariates, such as stimulus, choice, and answer history.

Most machine learning methods assume fixed probability distributions, limiting their applicability in nonstationary real-world scenarios. While continual learning methods address this issue, current approaches often rely on black-box models or require extensive user intervention for interpretability. We propose SyMPLER (Systems Modeling through Piecewise Linear Evolving Regression), an explainable model for time series forecasting in nonstationary environments based on dynamic piecewise-linear approximations. Unlike other locally linear models, SyMPLER uses generalization bounds from Statistical Learning Theory to automatically determine when to add new local models based on prediction errors, eliminating the need for explicit clustering of the data. Experiments show that SyMPLER can achieve comparable performance to both black-box and existing explainable models while maintaining a human-interpretable structure that reveals insights about the system's behavior. In this sense, our approach conciliates accuracy and interpretability, offering a transparent and adaptive solution for forecasting nonstationary time series.

We present the first uniform-in-time high-probability bound for SGD under the PL condition, where the gradient noise contains both Markovian and martingale difference components. This significantly broadens the scope of finite-time guarantees, as the PL condition arises in many machine learning and deep learning models while Markovian noise naturally arises in decentralized optimization and online system identification problems. We further allow the magnitude of noise to grow with the function value, enabling the analysis of many practical sampling strategies. In addition to the high-probability guarantee, we establish a matching $1/k$ decay rate for the expected suboptimality. Our proof technique relies on the Poisson equation to handle the Markovian noise and a probabilistic induction argument to address the lack of almost-sure bounds on the objective. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our framework by analyzing three practical optimization problems: token-based decentralized linear regression, supervised learning with subsampling for privacy amplification, and online system identification.

We present the very first robust Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection algorithm through General Bayesian Inference (GBI) with $\beta$-divergences. The resulting inference procedure is doubly robust for both the predictive and the changepoint (CP) posterior, with linear time and constant space complexity. We provide a construction for exponential models and demonstrate it on the Bayesian Linear Regression model. In so doing, we make two additional contributions: Firstly, we make GBI scalable using Structural Variational approximations that are exact as $\beta \to 0$. Secondly, we give a principled way of choosing the divergence parameter $\beta$ by minimizing expected predictive loss on-line.