We consider the problem of estimating and optimizing utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) of a loss, say $(Y - \hat Y)^2$, in the context of a regression problem. Empirical risk minimization with a UBSR objective is challenging since UBSR is a non-linear function of the underlying distribution. We first derive a concentration bound for UBSR estimation using independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. We then frame the UBSR optimization problem as minimization of a pseudo-linear function in the space of achievable distributions $\mathcal D$ of the loss $(Y- \hat Y)^2$. We construct a gradient oracle for the UBSR objective and a linear minimization oracle (LMO) for the set $\mathcal D$. Using these oracles, we devise a bisection-type algorithm, and establish convergence to the UBSR-optimal solution.

Neural scaling laws suggest that the test error of large language models trained online decreases polynomially as the model size and data size increase. However, such scaling can be unsustainable when running out of new data. In this work, we show that data reuse can improve existing scaling laws in linear regression. Specifically, we derive sharp test error bounds on $M$-dimensional linear models trained by multi-pass stochastic gradient descent (multi-pass SGD) on $N$ data with sketched features. Assuming that the data covariance has a power-law spectrum of degree $a$, and that the true parameter follows a prior with an aligned power-law spectrum of degree $b-a$ (with $a > b > 1$), we show that multi-pass SGD achieves a test error of $Θ(M^{1-b} + L^{(1-b)/a})$, where $L \lesssim N^{a/b}$ is the number of iterations. In the same setting, one-pass SGD only attains a test error of $Θ(M^{1-b} + N^{(1-b)/a})$ (see e.g., Lin et al., 2024). This suggests an improved scaling law via data reuse (i.e., choosing $L>N$) in data-constrained regimes. Numerical simulations are also provided to verify our theoretical findings.

Depth measures are powerful tools for defining level sets in emerging, non--standard, and complex random objects such as high-dimensional multivariate data, functional data, and random graphs. Despite their favorable theoretical properties, the integration of depth measures into regression modeling to provide prediction regions remains a largely underexplored area of research. To address this gap, we propose a novel, model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures--specifically, conditional kernel mean embeddings and an integrated depth measure. These new algorithms can be used to define prediction and tolerance regions when predictors and responses are defined in separable Hilbert spaces. The use of kernel mean embeddings ensures faster convergence rates in prediction region estimation. To enhance the practical utility of the algorithms with finite samples, we also introduce a conformal prediction variant that provides marginal, non-asymptotic guarantees for the derived prediction regions. Additionally, we establish both conditional and unconditional consistency results, as well as fast convergence rates in certain homoscedastic settings. We evaluate the finite--sample performance of our model in extensive simulation studies involving various types of functional data and traditional Euclidean scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our approach through a digital health application related to physical activity, aiming to provide personalized recommendations

Accurate prediction of polymer material properties through data-driven approaches greatly accelerates novel material development by reducing redundant experiments and trial-and-error processes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach to enhance dataset quality efficiently by integrating multi-algorithm outlier detection with selective re-experimentation of unreliable outlier cases. To demonstrate its general applicability, we report the performance improvements across multiple machine learning models, including Elastic Net, SVR, Random Forest, and TPOT, to predict the three key properties. Our method reliably reduces prediction error (RMSE) and significantly improves accuracy with minimal additional experimental work, requiring only about 5% of the dataset to be re-measured. These findings highlight the importance of data quality enhancement in achieving reliable machine learning applications in polymer science and present a scalable strategy for improving predictive reliability in materials science. Introduction Epoxy adhesives are extensively utilized in a wide range of industries, including automotive, aerospace, and civil engineering, due to their robust adhesion to various substrates, exceptional mechanical properties, and high resistance to heat, corrosion, and chemicals 1-4 . Primarily composed of epoxy resin and hardener (curing agent), epoxy adhesives may incorporate additional additives, such as accelerators and fillers, for modification 5 . Epoxy adhesives are formulated by subjecting their compositions to a curing process, which can occur at room temperature, elevated temperature, or through alternative methods such as exposure to UV light 6 .

High-dimensional linear regression is a fundamental tool in modern statistics, particularly when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. The classical Lasso, which relies on the squared loss, performs well under Gaussian noise assumptions but often deteriorates in the presence of heavy-tailed errors or outliers commonly encountered in real data applications such as genomics, finance, and signal processing. To address these challenges, we propose a novel robust regression method, termed Heavy Lasso, which incorporates a loss function inspired by the Student's t-distribution within a Lasso penalization framework. This loss retains the desirable quadratic behavior for small residuals while adaptively downweighting large deviations, thus enhancing robustness to heavy-tailed noise and outliers. Heavy Lasso enjoys computationally efficient by leveraging a data augmentation scheme and a soft-thresholding algorithm, which integrate seamlessly with classical Lasso solvers. Theoretically, we establish non-asymptotic bounds under both $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2 $ norms, by employing the framework of localized convexity, showing that the Heavy Lasso estimator achieves rates comparable to those of the Huber loss. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate Heavy Lasso's superior performance over classical Lasso and other robust variants, highlighting its effectiveness in challenging noisy settings. Our method is implemented in the R package heavylasso available on Github.

How does the training data affect a model's behavior? This is the question we seek to answer with data attribution. The leading practical approaches to data attribution are based on influence functions (IF). IFs utilize a first-order Taylor approximation to efficiently predict the effect of removing a set of samples from the training set without retraining the model, and are used in a wide variety of machine learning applications. However, especially in the high-dimensional regime (# params $\geq Ω($# samples$)$), they are often imprecise and tend to underestimate the effect of sample removals, even for simple models such as logistic regression. We present rescaled influence functions (RIF), a new tool for data attribution which can be used as a drop-in replacement for influence functions, with little computational overhead but significant improvement in accuracy. We compare IF and RIF on a range of real-world datasets, showing that RIFs offer significantly better predictions in practice, and present a theoretical analysis explaining this improvement. Finally, we present a simple class of data poisoning attacks that would fool IF-based detections but would be detected by RIF.

We study realizable continual linear regression under random task orderings, a common setting for developing continual learning theory. In this setup, the worst-case expected loss after $k$ learning iterations admits a lower bound of $Ω(1/k)$. However, prior work using an unregularized scheme has only established an upper bound of $O(1/k^{1/4})$, leaving a significant gap. Our paper proves that this gap can be narrowed, or even closed, using two frequently used regularization schemes: (1) explicit isotropic $\ell_2$ regularization, and (2) implicit regularization via finite step budgets. We show that these approaches, which are used in practice to mitigate forgetting, reduce to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on carefully defined surrogate losses. Through this lens, we identify a fixed regularization strength that yields a near-optimal rate of $O(\log k / k)$. Moreover, formalizing and analyzing a generalized variant of SGD for time-varying functions, we derive an increasing regularization strength schedule that provably achieves an optimal rate of $O(1/k)$. This suggests that schedules that increase the regularization coefficient or decrease the number of steps per task are beneficial, at least in the worst case.

We introduce an innovative approach that incorporates a Distributionally Robust Learning (DRL) approach into Cox regression to enhance the robustness and accuracy of survival predictions. By formulating a DRL framework with a Wasserstein distance-based ambiguity set, we develop a variant Cox model that is less sensitive to assumptions about the underlying data distribution and more resilient to model misspecification and data perturbations. By leveraging Wasserstein duality, we reformulate the original min-max DRL problem into a tractable regularized empirical risk minimization problem, which can be computed by exponential conic programming. We provide guarantees on the finite sample behavior of our DRL-Cox model. Moreover, through extensive simulations and real world case studies, we demonstrate that our regression model achieves superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness compared with traditional methods.

This paper introduces the Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF), a novel non-parametric model addressing key challenges in DiD estimation, such as staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. DiD-BCF provides a unified framework for estimating Average (ATE), Group-Average (GATE), and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). A core innovation, its Parallel Trends Assumption (PTA)-based reparameterization, enhances estimation accuracy and stability in complex panel data settings. Extensive simulations demonstrate DiD-BCF's superior performance over established benchmarks, particularly under non-linearity, selection biases, and effect heterogeneity. Applied to U.S. minimum wage policy, the model uncovers significant conditional treatment effect heterogeneity related to county population, insights obscured by traditional methods. DiD-BCF offers a robust and versatile tool for more nuanced causal inference in modern DiD applications.

Domain generalization (DG) seeks to develop models that generalize well to unseen target domains, addressing the prevalent issue of distribution shifts in real-world applications. One line of research in DG focuses on aligning domain-level gradients and Hessians to enhance generalization. However, existing methods are computationally inefficient and the underlying principles of these approaches are not well understood. In this paper, we develop the theory of moment alignment for DG. Grounded in \textit{transfer measure}, a principled framework for quantifying generalizability between two domains, we first extend the definition of transfer measure to domain generalization that includes multiple source domains and establish a target error bound. Then, we prove that aligning derivatives across domains improves transfer measure both when the feature extractor induces an invariant optimal predictor across domains and when it does not. Notably, moment alignment provides a unifying understanding of Invariant Risk Minimization, gradient matching, and Hessian matching, three previously disconnected approaches to DG. We further connect feature moments and derivatives of the classifier head, and establish the duality between feature learning and classifier fitting. Building upon our theory, we introduce \textbf{C}losed-Form \textbf{M}oment \textbf{A}lignment (CMA), a novel DG algorithm that aligns domain-level gradients and Hessians in closed-form. Our method overcomes the computational inefficiencies of existing gradient and Hessian-based techniques by eliminating the need for repeated backpropagation or sampling-based Hessian estimation. We validate the efficacy of our approach through two sets of experiments: linear probing and full fine-tuning. CMA demonstrates superior performance in both settings compared to Empirical Risk Minimization and state-of-the-art algorithms.