This textbook provides a systematic treatment of statistical machine learning for astronomical research through the lens of Bayesian inference, developing a unified framework that reveals connections between modern data analysis techniques and traditional statistical methods. We show how these techniques emerge from familiar statistical foundations. The consistently Bayesian perspective prioritizes uncertainty quantification and statistical rigor essential for scientific inference in astronomy. The textbook progresses from probability theory and Bayesian inference through supervised learning including linear regression with measurement uncertainties, logistic regression, and classification. Unsupervised learning topics cover Principal Component Analysis and clustering methods. We then introduce computational techniques through sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, followed by Gaussian Processes as probabilistic nonparametric methods and neural networks within the broader statistical context. Our theory-focused pedagogical approach derives each method from first principles with complete mathematical development, emphasizing statistical insight and complementing with astronomical applications. We prioritize understanding why algorithms work, when they are appropriate, and how they connect to broader statistical principles. The treatment builds toward modern techniques including neural networks through a solid foundation in classical methods and their theoretical underpinnings. This foundation enables thoughtful application of these methods to astronomical research, ensuring proper consideration of assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty propagation essential for advancing astronomical knowledge in the era of large astronomical surveys.

Researchers in urban and regional studies increasingly deal with spatial data that reflects geographic location and spatial relationships. As a framework for dealing with the unique nature of spatial data, various spatial regression models have been introduced. In this article, a novel model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models with autoregressive disturbances is proposed. Due to the modular nature, the approach provides an alternative estimation procedure which is feasible even in high-dimensional settings where established quasi-maximum likelihood or generalized method of moments estimators do not yield unique solutions. The approach additionally enables data-driven variable and model selection in low- as well as high-dimensional settings. Since the bias-variance trade-off is also controlled in the algorithm, implicit regularization is imposed which improves prediction accuracy on out-of-sample spatial data. Detailed simulation studies regarding the performance of estimation, prediction and variable selection in low- and high-dimensional settings confirm proper functionality of the proposed methodology. To illustrative the functionality of the model-based gradient boosting algorithm, a case study is presented where the life expectancy in German districts is modeled incorporating a potential spatial dependence structure.

We propose Network Automatic Relevance Determination (NARD), an extension of ARD for linearly probabilistic models, to simultaneously model sparse relationships between inputs $X \in \mathbb R^{d \times N}$ and outputs $Y \in \mathbb R^{m \times N}$, while capturing the correlation structure among the $Y$. NARD employs a matrix normal prior which contains a sparsity-inducing parameter to identify and discard irrelevant features, thereby promoting sparsity in the model. Algorithmically, it iteratively updates both the precision matrix and the relationship between $Y$ and the refined inputs. To mitigate the computational inefficiencies of the $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^3)$ cost per iteration, we introduce Sequential NARD, which evaluates features sequentially, and a Surrogate Function Method, leveraging an efficient approximation of the marginal likelihood and simplifying the calculation of determinant and inverse of an intermediate matrix. Combining the Sequential update with the Surrogate Function method further reduces computational costs. The computational complexity per iteration for these three methods is reduced to $\mathcal O(m^3+p^3)$, $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^2)$, $\mathcal O(m^3+p^2)$, respectively, where $p \ll d$ is the final number of features in the model. Our methods demonstrate significant improvements in computational efficiency with comparable performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Understanding socio-academic and economic factors influencing students' performance is crucial for effective educational interventions. This study employs several machine learning techniques and causal analysis to predict and elucidate the impacts of these factors on academic performance. We constructed a hypothetical causal graph and collected data from 1,050 student profiles. Following meticulous data cleaning and visualization, we analyze linear relationships through correlation and variable plots, and perform causal analysis on the hypothetical graph. Regression and classification models are applied for prediction, and unsupervised causality analysis using PC, GES, ICA-LiNGAM, and GRASP algorithms is conducted. Our regression analysis shows that Ridge Regression achieve a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.12 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.024, indicating robustness, while classification models like Random Forest achieve nearly perfect F1-scores. The causal analysis shows significant direct and indirect effects of factors such as class attendance, study hours, and group study on CGPA. These insights are validated through unsupervised causality analysis. By integrating the best regression model into a web application, we are developing a practical tool for students and educators to enhance academic outcomes based on empirical evidence.

Sense and Sensibility: What makes a social robot convincing to high-school students? Abstract --This study with 40 high-school students demonstrates the high influence of a social educational robot on students' decision-making for a set of eight true-false questions on electric circuits, for which the theory had been covered in the students' courses. The robot argued for the correct answer on six questions and the wrong on two, and 75% of the students were persuaded by the robot to perform beyond their expected capacity, positively when the robot was correct and negatively when it was wrong. Students with more experience of using large language models were even more likely to be influenced by the robot's stance - in particular for the two easiest questions on which the robot was wrong - suggesting that familiarity with AI can increase susceptibility to misinformation by AI. We further examined how three different levels of portrayed robot certainty, displayed using semantics, prosody and facial signals, affected how the students aligned with the robot's answer on specific questions and how convincing they perceived the robot to be on these questions. The students aligned with the robot's answers in 94.4% of the cases when the robot was portrayed as Certain, 82.6% when it was Neutral and 71.4% when it was Uncertain. The alignment was thus high for all conditions, highlighting students' general susceptibility to accept the robot's stance, but alignment in the Uncertain condition was significantly lower than in the Certain. Post-test questionnaire answers further show that students found the robot most convincing when it was portrayed as Certain. These findings highlight the need for educational robots to adjust their display of certainty based on the reliability of the information they convey, to promote students' critical thinking and reduce undue influence. Educational robots are becoming more common and they have significant potential in, e.g., STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education [46, 69, 17], offering students realistic and natural interactions, not the least by employing Large Language Models (LLMs), as demonstrated in several recent studies [41, 68, 67]. However, it is also well-known that while the LLMs' linguistic proficiency is often astonishing, their factual "knowledge" in STEM subjects is flawed, and incorrect statements occur frequently [34, 60]. Since robots can exert high informational social influence [38, 24, 25, 55, 56] and students will align with the robot's views to large extents [27], the positive as well as negative effects of learning with a social robot need to be considered: Students need to use critical thinking to decide if they should accept the robot's propositions [63]. Educators need to understand which students are more at risk of being misled by a robot presenting incorrect STEM facts, to provide in-time support.

Machine learning models should not reveal particular information that is not otherwise accessible. Differential privacy provides a formal framework to mitigate privacy risks by ensuring that the inclusion or exclusion of any single data point does not significantly alter the output of an algorithm, thus limiting the exposure of private information. This survey paper explores the foundational definitions of differential privacy, reviews its original formulations and tracing its evolution through key research contributions. It then provides an in-depth examination of how DP has been integrated into machine learning models, analyzing existing proposals and methods to preserve privacy when training ML models. Finally, it describes how DP-based ML techniques can be evaluated in practice. %Finally, it discusses the broader implications of DP, highlighting its potential for public benefit, its real-world applications, and the challenges it faces, including vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks. By offering a comprehensive overview of differential privacy in machine learning, this work aims to contribute to the ongoing development of secure and responsible AI systems.

We propose Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR) learning. Unlike linear methods, KLR uses kernels to implicitly map patterns to high-dimensional feature space, enhancing separability. By learning dual variables, KLR dramatically improves storage capacity, achieving perfect recall even when pattern numbers exceed neuron numbers (up to ratio 1.5 shown), and enhances noise robustness. KLR demonstrably outperforms Hebbian and linear logistic regression approaches.

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event data in healthcare, engineering, and finance, where censored observations pose significant challenges. While traditional methods like the Beran estimator offer nonparametric solutions, they often struggle with the complex data structures and heavy censoring. This paper introduces three novel survival models, iSurvM (the imprecise Survival model based on Mean likelihood functions), iSurvQ (the imprecise Survival model based on the Quantiles of likelihood functions), and iSurvJ (the imprecise Survival model based on the Joint learning), that combine imprecise probability theory with attention mechanisms to handle censored data without parametric assumptions. The first idea behind the models is to represent censored observations by interval-valued probability distributions for each instance over time intervals between events moments. The second idea is to employ the kernel-based Nadaraya-Watson regression with trainable attention weights for computing the imprecise probability distribution over time intervals for the entire dataset. The third idea is to consider three decision strategies for training, which correspond to the proposed three models. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that the proposed models, especially iSurvJ, consistently outperform the Beran estimator from the accuracy and computational complexity points of view. Codes implementing the proposed models are publicly available.

Objectives: We propose a novel imputation method tailored for Electronic Health Records (EHRs) with structured and sporadic missingness. Such missingness frequently arises in the integration of heterogeneous EHR datasets for downstream clinical applications. By addressing these gaps, our method provides a practical solution for integrated analysis, enhancing data utility and advancing the understanding of population health. Materials and Methods: We begin by demonstrating structured and sporadic missing mechanisms in the integrated analysis of EHR data. Following this, we introduce a novel imputation framework, Macomss, specifically designed to handle structurally and heterogeneously occurring missing data. We establish theoretical guarantees for Macomss, ensuring its robustness in preserving the integrity and reliability of integrated analyses. To assess its empirical performance, we conduct extensive simulation studies that replicate the complex missingness patterns observed in real-world EHR systems, complemented by validation using EHR datasets from the Duke University Health System (DUHS). Results: Simulation studies show that our approach consistently outperforms existing imputation methods. Using datasets from three hospitals within DUHS, Macomss achieves the lowest imputation errors for missing data in most cases and provides superior or comparable downstream prediction performance compared to benchmark methods. Conclusions: We provide a theoretically guaranteed and practically meaningful method for imputing structured and sporadic missing data, enabling accurate and reliable integrated analysis across multiple EHR datasets. The proposed approach holds significant potential for advancing research in population health.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become deeply embedded in everyday life, calls to align AI development with ethical and societal values have intensified. Interdisciplinary collaboration is often championed as a key pathway for fostering such engagement. Yet it remains unclear whether interdisciplinary research teams are actually leading this shift in practice. This study analyzes over 100,000 AI-related papers published on ArXiv between 2014 and 2024 to examine how ethical values and societal concerns are integrated into technical AI research. We develop a classifier to identify societal content and measure the extent to which research papers express these considerations. We find a striking shift: while interdisciplinary teams remain more likely to produce societally-oriented research, computer science-only teams now account for a growing share of the field's overall societal output. These teams are increasingly integrating societal concerns into their papers and tackling a wide range of domains - from fairness and safety to healthcare and misinformation. These findings challenge common assumptions about the drivers of societal AI and raise important questions. First, what are the implications for emerging understandings of AI safety and governance if most societally-oriented research is being undertaken by exclusively technical teams? Second, for scholars in the social sciences and humanities: in a technical field increasingly responsive to societal demands, what distinctive perspectives can we still offer to help shape the future of AI?