Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a powerful statistical model that leverages the strengths of Bayesian inference and regression trees. It has received significant attention for capturing complex non-linear relationships and interactions among predictors. However, the accuracy of BART often comes at the cost of interpretability. To address this limitation, we propose ANOVA Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (ANOVA-BART), a novel extension of BART based on the functional ANOVA decomposition, which is used to decompose the variability of a function into different interactions, each representing the contribution of a different set of covariates or factors. Our proposed ANOVA-BART enhances interpretability, preserves and extends the theoretical guarantees of BART, and achieves superior predictive performance. Specifically, we establish that the posterior concentration rate of ANOVA-BART is nearly minimax optimal, and further provides the same convergence rates for each interaction that are not available for BART. Moreover, comprehensive experiments confirm that ANOVA-BART surpasses BART in both accuracy and uncertainty quantification, while also demonstrating its effectiveness in component selection. These results suggest that ANOVA-BART offers a compelling alternative to BART by balancing predictive accuracy, interpretability, and theoretical consistency.

In the United States, schizophrenia (SCZ) carries a race and sex disparity that may be explained by clinician bias - a belief held by a clinician about a patient that prevents impartial clinical decision making. The emergency department (ED) is marked by higher rates of stress that lead to clinicians relying more on implicit biases during decision making. In this work, we considered a large cohort of psychiatric patients in the ED from the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) in New York City to investigate the effects of clinician bias on SCZ diagnosis while controlling for known risk factors and patient sociodemographic information. Clinician bias was quantified as the ratio of negative to total sentences within a patient's first ED note. We utilized a logistic regression to predict SCZ diagnosis given patient race, sex, age, history of trauma or substance use disorder, and the ratio of negative sentences. Our findings showed that an increased ratio of negative sentences is associated with higher odds of obtaining a SCZ diagnosis [OR (95% CI)=1.408 (1.361-1.456)]. Identifying as male [OR (95% CI)=1.112 (1.055-1.173)] or Black [OR (95% CI)=1.081(1.031-1.133)] increased one's odds of being diagnosed with SCZ. However, from an intersectional lens, Black female patients with high SES have the highest odds of obtaining a SCZ diagnosis [OR (95% CI)=1.629 (1.535-1.729)]. Results such as these suggest that SES does not act as a protective buffer against SCZ diagnosis in all patients, demanding more attention to the quantification of health disparities. Lastly, we demonstrated that clinician bias is operational with real world data and related to increased odds of obtaining a stigmatizing diagnosis such as SCZ.

Neural network pruning has emerged as a promising approach for deploying LLMs in low-resource scenarios while preserving downstream task performance. However, for the first time, we reveal that such pruning disrupts LLMs' internal activation features crucial for lie detection, where probing classifiers (typically small logistic regression models) trained on these features assess the truthfulness of LLM-generated statements. This discovery raises a crucial open question: how can we prune LLMs without sacrificing these critical lie detection capabilities? Our investigation further reveals that naively adjusting layer-wise pruning sparsity based on importance inadvertently removes crucial weights, failing to improve lie detection performance despite its reliance on the most crucial LLM layer. To address this issue, we propose Truthful Pruning aligned by Layer-wise Outliers (TPLO), which places greater emphasis on layers with more activation outliers and stronger discriminative features simultaneously. This preserves LLMs' original performance while retaining critical features of inner states needed for robust lie detection. Moreover, we introduce a prompting rule to enrich the TruthfulQA benchmark for better calibrating LLM pruning. Empirical results show that our approach improves the hallucination detection for pruned LLMs (achieving 88% accuracy at 50% sparsity) and enhances their performance on TruthfulQA.

Previous works in the differential privacy literature that allow users to choose their privacy levels typically operate under the heterogeneous differential privacy (HDP) framework with the simplifying assumption that user data and privacy levels are not correlated. Firstly, we demonstrate that the standard HDP framework falls short when user data and privacy demands are allowed to be correlated. Secondly, to address this shortcoming, we propose an alternate framework, Add-remove Heterogeneous Differential Privacy (AHDP), that jointly accounts for user data and privacy preference. We show that AHDP is robust to possible correlations between data and privacy. Thirdly, we formalize the guarantees of the proposed AHDP framework through an operational hypothesis testing perspective. The hypothesis testing setup may be of independent interest in analyzing other privacy frameworks as well. Fourthly, we show that there exists non-trivial AHDP mechanisms that notably do not require prior knowledge of the data-privacy correlations. We propose some such mechanisms and apply them to core statistical tasks such as mean estimation, frequency estimation, and linear regression. The proposed mechanisms are simple to implement with minimal assumptions and modeling requirements, making them attractive for real-world use. Finally, we empirically evaluate proposed AHDP mechanisms, highlighting their trade-offs using LLM-generated synthetic datasets, which we release for future research.

We address the problem of determining the causal direction between two univariate, continuous-valued variables, X and Y, under the assumption of no hidden confounders. In general, it is not possible to make definitive statements about causality without some assumptions on the underlying model. To distinguish between cause and effect, we propose a bivariate causal score based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, using functions that possess the density property on a compact real interval. We prove the identifiability of these causal scores under specific conditions. These conditions can be easily tested. Gaussianity of the noise in the causal model equations is not assumed, only that the noise is low. The well-studied class of cubic splines possesses the density property on a compact real interval. We propose LCUBE as an instantiation of the MDL-based causal score utilizing cubic regression splines. LCUBE is an identifiable method that is also interpretable, simple, and very fast. It has only one hyperparameter. Empirical evaluations compared to state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that LCUBE achieves superior precision in terms of AUDRC on the real-world Tuebingen cause-effect pairs dataset. It also shows superior average precision across common 10 benchmark datasets and achieves above average precision on 13 datasets.

High-dimensional measurements are often correlated which motivates their approximation by factor models. This holds also true when features are engineered via low-dimensional interactions or kernel tricks. This often results in over parametrization and requires a fast dimensionality reduction. We propose a simple technique to enhance the performance of supervised learning algorithms by augmenting features with factors extracted from design matrices and their transformations. This is implemented by using the factors and idiosyncratic residuals which significantly weaken the correlations between input variables and hence increase the interpretability of learning algorithms and numerical stability. Extensive experiments on various algorithms and real-world data in diverse fields are carried out, among which we put special emphasis on the stock return prediction problem with Chinese financial news data due to the increasing interest in NLP problems in financial studies. We verify the capability of the proposed feature augmentation approach to boost overall prediction performance with the same algorithm. The approach bridges a gap in research that has been overlooked in previous studies, which focus either on collecting additional data or constructing more powerful algorithms, whereas our method lies in between these two directions using a simple PCA augmentation.

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on uncontrollable assumptions, such as bounded gradients of performative loss, and primarily focus on linear cases in their examples and evaluations to maintain consistency between theoretical guarantees and empirical validations. However, such linearity rarely holds in real-world applications, where the data usually exhibit complex nonlinear characteristics. In this paper, we relax these out-of-control assumptions and present a novel design that generalizes performative prediction to nonlinear cases while preserving essential theoretical properties. Specifically, we formulate the loss function of performative prediction using a maximum margin approach and extend it to nonlinear spaces through kernel methods. To quantify the data distribution shift, we employ the discrepancy between prediction errors on these two distributions as an indicator, which characterizes the impact of the performative effect on specific learning tasks. By doing so, we can derive, for both linear and nonlinear cases, the conditions for performative stability, a critical and desirable property in performative contexts. Building on these theoretical insights, we develop an algorithm that guarantees the performative stability of the predictive model. We validate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets with both linear and nonlinear data distributions, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Notifications are an important communication channel for delivering timely and relevant information. Optimizing their delivery involves addressing complex sequential decision-making challenges under constraints such as message utility and user fatigue. Offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods, such as Conservative Q-Learning (CQL), have been applied to this problem but face practical challenges at scale, including instability, sensitivity to distribution shifts, limited reproducibility, and difficulties with explainability in high-dimensional recommendation settings. We present a Decision Transformer (DT) based framework that reframes policy learning as return-conditioned supervised learning, improving robustness, scalability, and modeling flexibility. Our contributions include a real-world comparison with CQL, a multi-reward design suitable for non-episodic tasks, a quantile regression approach to return-to-go conditioning, and a production-ready system with circular buffer-based sequence processing for near-real-time inference. Extensive offline and online experiments in a deployed notification system show that our approach improves notification utility and overall session activity while minimizing user fatigue. Compared to a multi-objective CQL-based agent, the DT-based approach achieved a +0.72% increase in sessions for notification decision-making at LinkedIn by making notification recommendation more relevant.

--Urban noise pollution poses a significant threat to public health, yet existing monitoring infrastructures offer limited spatial coverage and adaptability. This paper presents a scalable, low-cost, IoT -based, real-time environmental noise monitoring solution using mobile nodes ( sensor nodes on a moving vehicle). The system utilizes a low-cost sound sensor integrated with GPS-enabled modules to collect geotagged noise data at one-second intervals. The sound nodes are calibrated against a reference sound level meter in a laboratory setting to ensure accuracy using various machine learning (ML) algorithms such as Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression (PR), Segmented Regression (SR), Support V ector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree (DT), and Random Forest Regression (RFR). While laboratory calibration demonstrates high accuracy, it is shown that the performance of the nodes degrades during data collection in a moving vehicle. T o address this, it is demonstrated that the calibration must be performed on the IoT -based node based on the data collected in a moving environment along with the reference device. The system was deployed in Hyderabad, India, through three measurement campaigns across 27 days, capturing 436,420 data points. Results highlight temporal and spatial noise variations across weekdays, weekends, and during Diwali. Incorporating vehicular velocity into the calibration significantly improves accuracy. The proposed system demonstrates the potential for widespread deployment of IoT -based noise sensing networks in smart cities, enabling effective noise pollution management and urban planning. OISE pollution, also known as environmental noise or sound pollution, refers to unwanted or excessive sound that disrupts human activities and negatively impacts human health [1]. The known sources of noise pollution include transportation (such as road traffic), industrial activities, construction, and urban crowding [2].

Accurate determination of total oxidant concentration ([Ox]_{tot}) in non-thermal plasma (NTP)-treated aqueous systems remains a critical challenge due to the transient nature of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species and the subjectivity of conventional titration methods used for [Ox]_{tot} determination. This study introduces a novel, color-based computer analysis (CBCA) method that integrates advanced image processing with machine learning (ML) to quantify colorimetric shifts in potassium iodide (KI) solutions during oxidation. First, a custom-built visual data acquisition system captured high-resolution video of the color transitions in a KI solution during oxidation with an NTP system. The change in [Ox]_{tot} during the experiments was monitored with a standard titrimetric method. Second, the captured frames were processed using a robust image processing pipeline to extract RGB, HSV, and Lab color features. The extracted features were statistically evaluated, and the results revealed strong linear correlations with the measured [Ox]_{tot} values, particularly in the saturation (HSV), a and b (Lab), and blue (RGB) channels. Subsequently, the [Ox]_{tot} measurements and the extracted color features were used to train and validate five ML models. Among them, linear regression and gradient boosting models achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R^2 > 0.990). It was also found that reducing the feature set from nine to four resulted in comparable performance with improved prediction efficiency, especially for gradient boosting. Finally, comparison of the model predictions with real titration measurements revealed that the CBCA system successfully predicts the [Ox]_{tot} in KI solution with high accuracy (R^2 > 0.998) even with a reduced number of features.