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 Regression


e433e40575f677fb3f7eb7b6b2fb3dd2-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We analyze task orderings in continual learning for linear regression, assuming joint realizability of training data. We focus on orderings that greedily maximize dissimilarity between consecutive tasks, a concept briefly explored in prior work but still surrounded by open questions. Using tools from the Kaczmarz method literature, we formalize such orderings and develop geometric and algebraic intuitions around them. Empirically, we demonstrate that greedy orderings converge faster than random ones in terms of the average loss across tasks, both for linear regression with random data and for linear probing on CIFAR-100classification tasks. Analytically, in a high-rank regression setting, we prove a loss bound for greedy orderings analogous to that of random ones. However, under general rank, we establish a repetition-dependent separation. Specifically, while prior work showed that for random orderings, with or without replacement, the average loss after k iterations is bounded by O(1/ k)--we prove that single-pass greedy orderings may fail catastrophically, whereas those allowing repetition converge at rate O(1/ 3 k). Overall, we reveal nuances within and between greedy and random orderings.


Rescaled Influence Functions: Accurate Data Attribution in High Dimension

Neural Information Processing Systems

How does the training data affect a model's behavior? This is the question we seek to answer with data attribution. The leading practical approaches to data attribution are based on influence functions (IF). IFs utilize a first-order Taylor approximation to efficiently predict the effect of removing a set of samples from the training set without retraining the model, and are used in a wide variety of machine learning applications. However, especially in the high-dimensional regime (# params โ„ฆ(# samples)), they are often imprecise and tend to underestimate the effect of sample removals, even for simple models such as logistic regression. We present rescaled influence functions (RIF), a tool for data attribution which can be used as a dropin replacement for influence functions, with little computational overhead but significant improvement in accuracy. We compare IF and RIF on a range of realworld datasets, showing that RIFs offer significantly better predictions in practice, and present a theoretical analysis explaining this improvement. Finally, we present a simple class of data poisoning attacks that would fool IF-based detections but would be detected by RIF.


AFaster Training Algorithm for Regression Trees with Linear Leaves, and an Analysis of its Complexity

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the Tree Alternating Optimization (TAO) algorithm to train regression trees with linear predictors in the leaves. Unlike the traditional, greedy recursive partitioning algorithms such as CART, TAO guarantees a monotonic decrease of the objective function and results in smaller trees of much better accuracy. We modify the TAO algorithm so that it produces exactly the same result but is much faster, particularly for high input dimensionality or deep trees. The idea is based on the fact that, at each iteration of TAO, each leaf receives only a subset of the training instances. Thus, the optimization of the leaf model can be done exactly but faster by using the Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury formula. This has the unexpected advantage that, once a tree exceeds a critical depth, then making it deeper makes it faster to train, even though the tree is larger and has more parameters. Indeed, this can make learning a nonlinear model (the tree) asymptotically faster than a regular linear regression model. We analyze the corresponding computational complexity and verify the speedups experimentally in various datasets. The argument can be applied to other types of trees, whenever the optimization of a node can be computed in superlinear time of the number of instances.


Variational Task Vector Composition

Neural Information Processing Systems

Task vectors capture how a model changes during fine-tuning by recording the difference between pre-trained and task-specific weights. The composition of task vectors, a key operator in task arithmetic, enables models to integrate knowledge from multiple tasks without incurring significant additional inference costs. In this paper, we propose variational task vector composition (VTVC), where composition coefficients are taken as latent variables and estimated in a Bayesian inference framework. Unlike previous methods that operate at the task level, our framework focuses on sample-specific composition. Motivated by the observation of structural redundancy in task vectors, we introduce a Spike-and-Slab prior that promotes sparsity and aims to preserve the most informative components. To further address the high variance and sampling inefficiency in sparse, high-dimensional spaces, we develop a gated sampling mechanism that constructs a controllable posterior by filtering the composition coefficients based on both uncertainty and importance. This yields a more stable and interpretable variational framework by deterministically selecting reliable task components, reducing sampling variance while improving transparency and generalization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art average performance across a diverse range of benchmarks, including image classification and natural language understanding.


On the Mechanisms of Weak-to-Strong Generalization: ATheoretical Perspective

Neural Information Processing Systems

Weak-to-strong generalization--where a student model trained on imperfect labels generated by a weaker teacher nonetheless surpasses that teacher--has been widely observed, but the mechanisms that enable it have remained poorly understood. In this paper, through a theoretical analysis of simple models, we uncover three core mechanisms that can drive this phenomenon. First, by analyzing ridge linear regression, we study the interplay between the teacher and student regularization parameters and prove that a student can compensate for a teacher's under-regularization and achieve lower test error. We also analyze the role of the parameterization regime of the models and show that qualitatively different phenomena can happen in different regimes. Second, by analyzing weighted ridge linear regression, we show that a student model with a regularization structure better aligned to the target function, can outperform its teacher. Third, in a nonlinear multi-index learning setting, we demonstrate that a student can learn easy, task-specific features from the teacher while leveraging its own broader pre-training to learn hard-to-learn features that the teacher cannot capture.


Quasi-Self-Concordant Optimization with Lewis Weights

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we study the problem minx Rd,Nx=v Pn i=1 f((Ax b)i)for a quasiself-concordant function f: R R, where A,N are n d and m d matrices, b,v are vectors of length n and m with n d. We show an algorithm based on a trust-region method with an oracle that can be implemented using eO(d1/3)linear system solves, improving the eO(n1/3) oracle by [Adil-Bullins-Sachdeva, NeurIPS 2021]. Our implementation of the oracle relies on solving the overdetermined โ„“ regression problem minx Rd,Nx=v Ax b . We provide an algorithm that finds a (1+ฮต)-approximate solution to this problem using O((d1/3/ฮต+1/ฮต2)log(n/ฮต)) linear system solves. This algorithm leverages โ„“ Lewis weight overestimates and achieves this iteration complexity via a simple lightweight IRLS approach, inspired by the work of [Ene-Vladu, ICML 2019]. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our algorithm significantly improves the runtime of the standard CVX solver.


How Data Mixing Shapes In-Context Learning: Asymptotic Equivalence for Transformers with MLPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Pretrained Transformers demonstrate remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling them to adapt to new tasks from demonstrations without parameter updates. However, theoretical studies often rely on simplified architectures (e.g., omitting MLPs), plain data models (e.g., linear regression with isotropic inputs), and single-source training--limiting their relevance to realistic settings. In this work, we study ICL in pretrained Transformers with nonlinear MLP heads on nonlinear tasks drawn from multiple data sources with heterogeneous input, task, and noise distributions. We analyze a model where the MLP comprises two layers, with the first layer trained via a single gradient step and the second layer fully optimized. Under high-dimensional asymptotics, we prove that such models are equivalent in ICL error to structured polynomial predictors, leveraging results from the theory of Gaussian universality and orthogonal polynomials. This equivalence reveals that nonlinear MLPs meaningfully enhance ICL performance--particularly on nonlinear tasks--compared to linear baselines.


Sample-efficient Learning of Concepts with Theoretical Guarantees: from Data to Concepts without Interventions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Machine learning is a vital part of many real-world systems, but concerns remain about the lack of interpretability, explainability and robustness of black-box AI systems. Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) address some of these challenges by learning interpretable concepts from high-dimensional data, e.g.



Pessimistic Data Integration for Policy Evaluation

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper studies how to integrate historical control data with experimental data to enhance A/B testing, while addressing the distributional shift between historical and experimental datasets. We propose a pessimistic data integration method that combines two causal effect estimators constructed based on experimental and historical datasets. Our main idea is to conceptualize the weight function for this combination as a policy so that existing pessimistic policy learning algorithms are applicable to learn the optimal weight that minimizes the resulting weighted estimator's mean squared error. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses to compare our method against various baseline estimators across five scenarios. Both our theoretical and numerical findings demonstrate that the proposed estimator achieves near-optimal performance across all scenarios.