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A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models with digital traces, via interpretable machine-learning methodologies, to reliably forecast COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces in real-time. Specifically, our method is able to produce stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of current time, and uses as inputs (a) official health reports from Chinese Center Disease for Control and Prevention (China CDC), (b) COVID-19-related internet search activity from Baidu, (c) news media activity reported by Media Cloud, and (d) daily forecasts of COVID-19 activity from GLEAM, an agent-based mechanistic model. Our machine-learning methodology uses a clustering technique that enables the exploitation of geo-spatial synchronicities of COVID-19 activity across Chinese provinces, and a data augmentation technique to deal with the small number of historical disease activity observations, characteristic of emerging outbreaks. Our model's predictive power outperforms a collection of baseline models in 27 out of the 32 Chinese provinces, and could be easily extended to other geographies currently affected by the COVID-19 outbreak to help decision makers.


Robust spectral clustering using LASSO regularization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Cluster structure detection is a fundamental task for the analysis of graphs, in order to understand and to visualize their functional characteristics. Among the different cluster structure detection methods, spectral clustering is currently one of the most widely used due to its speed and simplicity. Yet, there are few theoretical guarantee to recover the underlying partitions of the graph for general models. This paper therefore presents a variant of spectral clustering, called 1-spectral clustering, performed on a new random model closely related to stochastic block model. Its goal is to promote a sparse eigenbasis solution of a 1 minimization problem revealing the natural structure of the graph. The effectiveness and the robustness to small noise perturbations of our technique is confirmed through a collection of simulated and real data examples.


A computational theoretical approach for mining data on transient events from databases of high energy astrophysics experiments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data on transient events, like GRBs, are often contained in large databases of unstructured data from space experiments, merged with potentially large amount of background or simply undesired information. We present a computational formal model to apply techniques of modern computer science -such as Data Mining (DM) and Knowledge Discovering in Databases (KDD)- to a generic, large database derived from a high energy astrophysics experiment. This method is aimed to search, identify and extract expected information, and maybe to discover unexpected information .


The Importance of Good Starting Solutions in the Minimum Sum of Squares Clustering Problem

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The clustering problem has many applications in Machine Learning, Operations Research, and Statistics. We propose three algorithms to create starting solutions for improvement algorithms for this problem. We test the algorithms on 72 instances that were investigated in the literature. Forty eight of them are relatively easy to solve and we found the best known solution many times for all of them. Twenty four medium and large size instances are more challenging. We found five new best known solutions and matched the best known solution for 18 of the remaining 19 instances.


Consistent and Complementary Graph Regularized Multi-view Subspace Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study investigates the problem of multi-view clustering, where multiple views contain consistent information and each view also includes complementary information. Exploration of all information is crucial for good multi-view clustering. However, most traditional methods blindly or crudely combine multiple views for clustering and are unable to fully exploit the valuable information. Therefore, we propose a method that involves consistent and complementary graph-regularized multi-view subspace clustering (GRMSC), which simultaneously integrates a consistent graph regularizer with a complementary graph regularizer into the objective function. In particular, the consistent graph regularizer learns the intrinsic affinity relationship of data points shared by all views. The complementary graph regularizer investigates the specific information of multiple views. It is noteworthy that the consistent and complementary regularizers are formulated by two different graphs constructed from the first-order proximity and second-order proximity of multiple views, respectively. The objective function is optimized by the augmented Lagrangian multiplier method in order to achieve multi-view clustering. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets serve to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method over other state-of-the-art multi-view clustering methods.


SelfORE: Self-supervised Relational Feature Learning for Open Relation Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open relation extraction is the task of extracting open-domain relation facts from natural language sentences. Existing works either utilize heuristics or distant-supervised annotations to train a supervised classifier over pre-defined relations, or adopt unsupervised methods with additional assumptions that have less discriminative power. In this work, we proposed a self-supervised framework named SelfORE, which exploits weak, self-supervised signals by leveraging large pretrained language model for adaptive clustering on contextualized relational features, and bootstraps the self-supervised signals by improving contextualized features in relation classification. Experimental results on three datasets show the effectiveness and robustness of SelfORE on open-domain Relation Extraction when comparing with competitive baselines. Source code is available at https://github.com/THU-BPM/SelfORE.


Robust Self-Supervised Convolutional Neural Network for Subspace Clustering and Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Insufficient capability of existing subspace clustering methods to handle data coming from nonlinear manifolds, data corruptions, and out-of-sample data hinders their applicability to address real-world clustering and classification problems. This paper proposes the robust formulation of the self-supervised convolutional subspace clustering network ($S^2$ConvSCN) that incorporates the fully connected (FC) layer and, thus, it is capable for handling out-of-sample data by classifying them using a softmax classifier. $S^2$ConvSCN clusters data coming from nonlinear manifolds by learning the linear self-representation model in the feature space. Robustness to data corruptions is achieved by using the correntropy induced metric (CIM) of the error. Furthermore, the block-diagonal (BD) structure of the representation matrix is enforced explicitly through BD regularization. In a truly unsupervised training environment, Robust $S^2$ConvSCN outperforms its baseline version by a significant amount for both seen and unseen data on four well-known datasets. Arguably, such an ablation study has not been reported before.


Motif-Based Spectral Clustering of Weighted Directed Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clustering is an essential technique for network analysis, with applications in a diverse range of fields. Although spectral clustering is a popular and effective method, it fails to consider higher-order structure and can perform poorly on directed networks. One approach is to capture and cluster higher-order structures using motif adjacency matrices. However, current formulations fail to take edge weights into account, and thus are somewhat limited when weight is a key component of the network under study. We address these shortcomings by exploring motif-based weighted spectral clustering methods. We present new and computationally useful matrix formulae for motif adjacency matrices on weighted networks, which can be used to construct efficient algorithms for any anchored or non-anchored motif on three nodes. In a very sparse regime, our proposed method can handle graphs with five million nodes and tens of millions of edges in under ten minutes. We further use our framework to construct a motif-based approach for clustering bipartite networks. We provide comprehensive experimental results, demonstrating (i) the scalability of our approach, (ii) advantages of higher-order clustering on synthetic examples, and (iii) the effectiveness of our techniques on a variety of real world data sets. We conclude that motif-based spectral clustering is a valuable tool for analysis of directed and bipartite weighted networks, which is also scalable and easy to implement.


Application of Structural Similarity Analysis of Visually Salient Areas and Hierarchical Clustering in the Screening of Similar Wireless Capsule Endoscopic Images

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Small intestinal capsule endoscopy is the mainstream method for inspecting small intestinal lesions,but a single small intestinal capsule endoscopy will produce 60,000 - 120,000 images, the majority of which are similar and have no diagnostic value. It takes 2 - 3 hours for doctors to identify lesions from these images. This is time-consuming and increase the probability of misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis since doctors are likely to experience visual fatigue while focusing on a large number of similar images for an extended period of time.In order to solve these problems, we proposed a similar wireless capsule endoscope (WCE) image screening method based on structural similarity analysis and the hierarchical clustering of visually salient sub-image blocks. The similarity clustering of images was automatically identified by hierarchical clustering based on the hue,saturation,value (HSV) spatial color characteristics of the images,and the keyframe images were extracted based on the structural similarity of the visually salient sub-image blocks, in order to accurately identify and screen out similar small intestinal capsule endoscopic images. Subsequently, the proposed method was applied to the capsule endoscope imaging workstation. After screening out similar images in the complete data gathered by the Type I OMOM Small Intestinal Capsule Endoscope from 52 cases covering 17 common types of small intestinal lesions, we obtained a lesion recall of 100% and an average similar image reduction ratio of 76%. With similar images screened out, the average play time of the OMOM image workstation was 18 minutes, which greatly reduced the time spent by doctors viewing the images.


Anomaly Detection in Univariate Time-series: A Survey on the State-of-the-Art

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Anomaly detection for time-series data has been an important research field for a long time. Seminal work on anomaly detection methods has been focussing on statistical approaches. In recent years an increasing number of machine learning algorithms have been developed to detect anomalies on time-series. Subsequently, researchers tried to improve these techniques using (deep) neural networks. In the light of the increasing number of anomaly detection methods, the body of research lacks a broad comparative evaluation of statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods. This paper studies 20 univariate anomaly detection methods from the all three categories. The evaluation is conducted on publicly available datasets, which serve as benchmarks for time-series anomaly detection. By analyzing the accuracy of each method as well as the computation time of the algorithms, we provide a thorough insight about the performance of these anomaly detection approaches, alongside some general notion of which method is suited for a certain type of data.