Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant correction for all test points, disregarding their individual uncertainties, to ensure coverage properties. To address this issue, we propose using a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) to learn the distribution of nonconformity scores and utilizing the QRF's weights to assign more importance to samples with residuals similar to the test point. This approach results in PI lengths that are more aligned with the model's uncertainty. In addition, the weights learnt by the QRF provide a partition of the features space, allowing for more efficient computations and improved adaptiveness of the PI through groupwise conformalization. Our approach enjoys an assumption-free finite sample marginal and training-conditional coverage, and under suitable assumptions, it also ensures conditional coverage. Our methods work for any nonconformity score and are available as a Python package. We conduct experiments on simulated and real-world data that demonstrate significant improvements compared to existing methods.

Large multi-agent systems such as real-time strategy games are often driven by collective behavior of agents. For example, in StarCraft II, human players group spatially near agents into a team and control the team to defeat opponents. In this light, clustering the agents in the game has been used for various purposes such as the efficient control of the agents in multi-agent reinforcement learning and game analytic tools for the game users. However, despite the useful information provided by clustering, learning the dynamics of multi-agent systems at a cluster level has been rarely studied yet. In this paper, we present a hybrid AI model that couples unsupervised and self-supervised learning to forecast evolution of the clusters in StarCraft II. We develop an unsupervised Hebbian learning method in a set-to-cluster module to efficiently create a variable number of the clusters with lower inference time complexity than K-means clustering. Also, a long short-term memory based prediction module is designed to recursively forecast state vectors generated by the set-to-cluster module to define cluster configuration. We experimentally demonstrate the proposed model successfully predicts complex movement of the clusters in the game.

We study dynamic discrete choice models, where a commonly studied problem involves estimating parameters of agent reward functions (also known as "structural" parameters), using agent behavioral data. Maximum likelihood estimation for such models requires dynamic programming, which is limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we present a novel algorithm that provides a data-driven method for selecting and aggregating states, which lowers the computational and sample complexity of estimation. Our method works in two stages. In the first stage, we use a flexible inverse reinforcement learning approach to estimate agent Q-functions. We use these estimated Q-functions, along with a clustering algorithm, to select a subset of states that are the most pivotal for driving changes in Q-functions. In the second stage, with these selected "aggregated" states, we conduct maximum likelihood estimation using a commonly used nested fixed-point algorithm. The proposed two-stage approach mitigates the curse of dimensionality by reducing the problem dimension. Theoretically, we derive finite-sample bounds on the associated estimation error, which also characterize the trade-off of computational complexity, estimation error, and sample complexity. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the algorithm in two classic dynamic discrete choice estimation applications.

In this paper, we propose a nested matrix-tensor model which extends the spiked rank-one tensor model of order three. This model is particularly motivated by a multi-view clustering problem in which multiple noisy observations of each data point are acquired, with potentially non-uniform variances along the views. In this case, data can be naturally represented by an order-three tensor where the views are stacked. Given such a tensor, we consider the estimation of the hidden clusters via performing a best rank-one tensor approximation. In order to study the theoretical performance of this approach, we characterize the behavior of this best rank-one approximation in terms of the alignments of the obtained component vectors with the hidden model parameter vectors, in the large-dimensional regime. In particular, we show that our theoretical results allow us to anticipate the exact accuracy of the proposed clustering approach. Furthermore, numerical experiments indicate that leveraging our tensor-based approach yields better accuracy compared to a naive unfolding-based algorithm which ignores the underlying low-rank tensor structure. Our analysis unveils unexpected and non-trivial phase transition phenomena depending on the model parameters, ``interpolating'' between the typical behavior observed for the spiked matrix and tensor models.

This paper presents a new filter method for unsupervised feature selection. This method is particularly effective on imbalanced multi-class dataset, as in case of clusters of different anomaly types. Existing methods usually involve the variance of the features, which is not suitable when the different types of observations are not represented equally. Our method, based on Spearman's Rank Correlation between distances on the observations and on feature values, avoids this drawback. The performance of the method is measured on several clustering problems and is compared with existing filter methods suitable for unsupervised data.

Intent discovery is the task of inferring latent intents from a set of unlabeled utterances, and is a useful step towards the efficient creation of new conversational agents. We show that recent competitive methods in intent discovery can be outperformed by clustering utterances based on abstractive summaries, i.e., "labels", that retain the core elements while removing non-essential information. We contribute the IDAS approach, which collects a set of descriptive utterance labels by prompting a Large Language Model, starting from a well-chosen seed set of prototypical utterances, to bootstrap an In-Context Learning procedure to generate labels for non-prototypical utterances. The utterances and their resulting noisy labels are then encoded by a frozen pre-trained encoder, and subsequently clustered to recover the latent intents. For the unsupervised task (without any intent labels) IDAS outperforms the state-of-the-art by up to +7.42% in standard cluster metrics for the Banking, StackOverflow, and Transport datasets. For the semi-supervised task (with labels for a subset of intents) IDAS surpasses 2 recent methods on the CLINC benchmark without even using labeled data.

Textual representations based on pre-trained language models are key, especially in few-shot learning scenarios. What makes a representation good for text classification? Is it due to the geometric properties of the space or because it is well aligned with the task? We hypothesize the second claim. To test it, we develop a task alignment score based on hierarchical clustering that measures alignment at different levels of granularity. Our experiments on text classification validate our hypothesis by showing that task alignment can explain the classification performance of a given representation.

Finding the mean of sampled data is a fundamental task in machine learning and statistics. However, in cases where the data samples are graph objects, defining a mean is an inherently difficult task. We propose a novel framework for defining a graph mean via embeddings in the space of smooth graph signal distributions, where graph similarity can be measured using the Wasserstein metric. By finding a mean in this embedding space, we can recover a mean graph that preserves structural information. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the novel graph mean, and provide an iterative algorithm for computing it. To highlight the potential of our framework as a valuable tool for practical applications in machine learning, it is evaluated on various tasks, including k-means clustering of structured graphs, classification of functional brain networks, and semi-supervised node classification in multi-layer graphs. Our experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves consistent performance, outperforms existing baseline approaches, and improves state-of-the-art methods.

Classifying the same event reported by different countries is of significant importance for public opinion control and intelligence gathering. Due to the diverse types of news, relying solely on transla-tors would be costly and inefficient, while depending solely on translation systems would incur considerable performance overheads in invoking translation interfaces and storing translated texts. To address this issue, we mainly focus on the clustering problem of cross-lingual news. To be specific, we use a combination of sentence vector representations of news headlines in a mixed semantic space and the topic probability distributions of news content to represent a news article. In the training of cross-lingual models, we employ knowledge distillation techniques to fit two semantic spaces into a mixed semantic space. We abandon traditional static clustering methods like K-Means and AGNES in favor of the incremental clustering algorithm Single-Pass, which we further modify to better suit cross-lingual news clustering scenarios. Our main contributions are as follows: (1) We adopt the English standard BERT as the teacher model and XLM-Roberta as the student model, training a cross-lingual model through knowledge distillation that can represent sentence-level bilingual texts in both Chinese and English. (2) We use the LDA topic model to represent news as a combina-tion of cross-lingual vectors for headlines and topic probability distributions for con-tent, introducing concepts such as topic similarity to address the cross-lingual issue in news content representation. (3) We adapt the Single-Pass clustering algorithm for the news context to make it more applicable. Our optimizations of Single-Pass include ad-justing the distance algorithm between samples and clusters, adding cluster merging operations, and incorporating a news time parameter.

NLP models often rely on superficial cues known as dataset biases to achieve impressive performance, and can fail on examples where these biases do not hold. Recent work sought to develop robust, unbiased models by filtering biased examples from training sets. In this work, we argue that such filtering can obscure the true capabilities of models to overcome biases, which might never be removed in full from the dataset. We suggest that in order to drive the development of models robust to subtle biases, dataset biases should be amplified in the training set. We introduce an evaluation framework defined by a bias-amplified training set and an anti-biased test set, both automatically extracted from existing datasets. Experiments across three notions of bias, four datasets and two models show that our framework is substantially more challenging for models than the original data splits, and even more challenging than hand-crafted challenge sets. Our evaluation framework can use any existing dataset, even those considered obsolete, to test model robustness. We hope our work will guide the development of robust models that do not rely on superficial biases and correlations. To this end, we publicly release our code and data.