Welcome to our monthly digest, where you can catch up with any AIhub stories you may have missed, peruse the latest news, recap recent events, and more. This month, we hear from AfriClimate AI co-founder Amal Nammouchi, learn about the kidney exchange problem, and find out how to improve the interpretability of logistic regression models. This month, we had the pleasure of chatting to Amal Nammouchi, co-founder of AfriClimate AI, a grassroots community focused on using artificial intelligence to tackle climate challenges in Africa. Amal told us about the inspiration behind the initiative, some of their activities and projects, and plans for the future. In this blog post, Danial Dervovic writes about work presented at IJCAI 2024 on improving the interpretability of logistic regression models.

AI is becoming a part of our daily lives, from approving loans to diagnosing diseases. AI model outputs are used to make increasingly important decisions, based on smart algorithms and data. But if we can't understand these decisions, how can we trust them? One approach to making AI decisions more understandable is to use models that are inherently interpretable. These are models that are designed in such a way that consumers of the model outputs can infer the model's behaviour by reading the parameters of the model. Popular inherently interpretable models include Decision Trees and Linear Regression.

Clustering large data is a fundamental problem with a vast number of applications. Due to the increasing size of data, practitioners interested in clustering have turned to distributed computation methods. In this work, we consider the widely used k-center clustering problem and its variant used to handle noisy data, k-center with outliers. In the noise-free setting we demonstrate how a previously-proposed distributed method is actually an O(1)-approximation algorithm, which accurately explains its strong empirical performance. Additionally, in the noisy setting, we develop a novel distributed algorithm that is also an O(1)-approximation.

We introduce a method called TracIn that computes the influence of a training example on a prediction made by the model. The idea is to trace how the loss on the test point changes during the training process whenever the training example of interest was utilized. We provide a scalable implementation of TracIn via: (a) a first-order gradient approximation to the exact computation, (b) saved checkpoints of standard training procedures, and (c) cherry-picking layers of a deep neural network. In contrast with previously proposed methods, TracIn is simple to implement; all it needs is the ability to work with gradients, checkpoints, and loss functions. It applies to any machine learning model trained using stochastic gradient descent or a variant of it, agnostic of architecture, domain and task.

We investigate the spectral properties of linear-width feed-forward neural networks, where the sample size is asymptotically proportional to network width. Empirically, we show that the spectra of weight in this high dimensional regime are invariant when trained by gradient descent for small constant learning rates; we provide a theoretical justification for this observation and prove the invariance of the bulk spectra for both conjugate and neural tangent kernels. We demonstrate similar characteristics when training with stochastic gradient descent with small learning rates. When the learning rate is large, we exhibit the emergence of an outlier whose corresponding eigenvector is aligned with the training data structure. We also show that after adaptive gradient training, where a lower test error and feature learning emerge, both weight and kernel matrices exhibit heavy tail behavior.

Multiclass extensions of the support vector machine (SVM) have been formulated in a variety of ways. A recent empirical comparison of nine such formulations [Doǧan et al. 2016] recommends the variant proposed by Weston and Watkins (WW), despite the fact that the WW-hinge loss is not calibrated with respect to the 0-1 loss. In this work we introduce a novel discrete loss function for multiclass classification, the ordered partition loss, and prove that the WW-hinge loss is calibrated with respect to this loss. We also argue that the ordered partition loss is minimally emblematic among discrete losses satisfying this property. Finally, we apply our theory to justify the empirical observation made by Doǧan et al that the WW-SVM can work well even under massive label noise, a challenging setting for multiclass SVMs.

Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors and predict future negative events, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count data collected via multiple self reports, for example, about frequencies of smoking using in-the-moment surveys on mobile devices. However, missing reports are common and present a major barrier to downstream statistical learning. As a first step, under a missing completely at random assumption (MCAR), we propose a simple yet widely applicable functional EM algorithm to estimate the counting process mean function, which is of central interest to behavioral scientists. The proposed approach wraps several popular panel count inference methods, seamlessly deals with incomplete counts and is robust to misspecification of the Poisson process assumption.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a fundamental model for studying graph clustering or community detection in networks. It has received great attention in the last decade and the balanced case, i.e., assuming all clusters have large size, has been well studied. However, our understanding of SBM with unbalanced communities (arguably, more relevant in practice) is still limited. In this paper, we provide a simple SVD-based algorithm for recovering the communities in the SBM with communities of varying sizes.We improve upon a result of Ailon, Chen and Xu [ICML 2013; JMLR 2015] by removing the assumption that there is a large interval such that the sizes of clusters do not fall in, and also remove the dependency of the size of the recoverable clusters on the number of underlying clusters. We further complement our theoretical improvements with experimental comparisons.Under the planted clique conjecture, the size of the clusters that can be recovered by our algorithm is nearly optimal (up to poly-logarithmic factors) when the probability parameters are constant. As a byproduct, we obtain an efficient clustering algorithm with sublinear query complexity in a faulty oracle model, which is capable of detecting all clusters larger than \tilde{\Omega}({\sqrt{n}}), even in the presence of \Omega(n) small clusters in the graph.

In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a probabilistic line search by combining the structure of existing deterministic methods with notions from Bayesian optimization. Our method retains a Gaussian process surrogate of the univariate optimization objective, and uses a probabilistic belief over the Wolfe conditions to monitor the descent. The algorithm has very low computational cost, and no user-controlled parameters.

The vast majority of statistical theory on binary classification characterizes performance in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is known in many cases to poorly reflect the practical consequences of classification error, most famously in imbalanced binary classification, where data are dominated by samples from one of two classes. The first part of this paper derives a novel generalization of the Bayes-optimal classifier from accuracy to any performance metric computed from the confusion matrix. Specifically, this result (a) demonstrates that stochastic classifiers sometimes outperform the best possible deterministic classifier and (b) removes an empirically unverifiable absolute continuity assumption that is poorly understood but pervades existing results. We then demonstrate how to use this generalized Bayes classifier to obtain regret bounds in terms of the error of estimating regression functions under uniform loss. Finally, we use these results to develop some of the first finite-sample statistical guarantees specific to imbalanced binary classification.