In contemporary scientific research, understanding the distinction between correlation and causation is crucial. While correlation is a widely used analytical standard, it does not inherently imply causation. This paper addresses the potential for misinterpretation in relying solely on correlation, especially in the context of nonlinear dynamics. Despite the rapid development of various correlation research methodologies, including machine learning, the exploration into mining causal correlations between variables remains ongoing. Empirical Dynamic Modeling (EDM) emerges as a data-driven framework for modeling dynamic systems, distinguishing itself by eschewing traditional formulaic methods in data analysis. Instead, it reconstructs dynamic system behavior directly from time series data. The fundamental premise of EDM is that dynamic systems can be conceptualized as processes where a set of states, governed by specific rules, evolve over time in a high-dimensional space. By reconstructing these evolving states, dynamic systems can be effectively modeled. Using EDM, this paper explores the detection of causal relationships between variables within dynamic systems through their time series data. It posits that if variable X causes variable Y, then the information about X is inherent in Y and can be extracted from Y's data. This study begins by examining the dialectical relationship between correlation and causation, emphasizing that correlation does not equate to causation, and the absence of correlation does not necessarily indicate a lack of causation.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have a greater potential for modeling time series data than Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), due to their inherent neuron dynamics and low energy consumption. However, it is difficult to demonstrate their superiority in classification accuracy, because current efforts mainly focus on designing better network structures. In this work, enlighten by brain-inspired science, we find that, not only the structure but also the learning process should be human-like. To achieve this, we investigate the power of Curriculum Learning (CL) on SNNs by designing a novel method named CSNN with two theoretically guaranteed mechanisms: The active-to-dormant training order makes the curriculum similar to that of human learning and suitable for spiking neurons; The value-based regional encoding makes the neuron activity to mimic the brain memory when learning sequential data. Experiments on multiple time series sources including simulated, sensor, motion, and healthcare demonstrate that CL has a more positive effect on SNNs than ANNs with about twice the accuracy change, and CSNN can increase about 3% SNNs' accuracy by improving network sparsity, neuron firing status, anti-noise ability, and convergence speed.

Audio is an essential part of our life, but creating it often requires expertise and is time-consuming. Research communities have made great progress over the past year advancing the performance of large scale audio generative models for a single modality (speech, sound, or music) through adopting more powerful generative models and scaling data. However, these models lack controllability in several aspects: speech generation models cannot synthesize novel styles based on text description and are limited on domain coverage such as outdoor environments; sound generation models only provide coarse-grained control based on descriptions like "a person speaking" and would only generate mumbling human voices. This paper presents Audiobox, a unified model based on flow-matching that is capable of generating various audio modalities. We design description-based and example-based prompting to enhance controllability and unify speech and sound generation paradigms. We allow transcript, vocal, and other audio styles to be controlled independently when generating speech. To improve model generalization with limited labels, we adapt a self-supervised infilling objective to pre-train on large quantities of unlabeled audio. Audiobox sets new benchmarks on speech and sound generation (0.745 similarity on Librispeech for zero-shot TTS; 0.77 FAD on AudioCaps for text-to-sound) and unlocks new methods for generating audio with novel vocal and acoustic styles. We further integrate Bespoke Solvers, which speeds up generation by over 25 times compared to the default ODE solver for flow-matching, without loss of performance on several tasks. Our demo is available at https://audiobox.metademolab.com/

Industry practitioners care about small improvements in malware detection accuracy because their models are deployed to hundreds of millions of machines, meaning a 0.1\% change can cause an overwhelming number of false positives. However, academic research is often restrained to public datasets on the order of ten thousand samples and is too small to detect improvements that may be relevant to industry. Working within these constraints, we devise an approach to generate a benchmark of configurable difficulty from a pool of available samples. This is done by leveraging malware family information from tools like AVClass to construct training/test splits that have different generalization rates, as measured by a secondary model. Our experiments will demonstrate that using a less accurate secondary model with disparate features is effective at producing benchmarks for a more sophisticated target model that is under evaluation. We also ablate against alternative designs to show the need for our approach.

This study explores the efficacy of a multi-perspective hybrid neural network (HNN) for scoring student responses in science education with an analytic rubric. We compared the accuracy of the HNN model with four ML approaches (BERT, AACR, Naive Bayes, and Logistic Regression). The results have shown that HHN achieved 8%, 3%, 1%, and 0.12% higher accuracy than Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, AACR, and BERT, respectively, for five scoring aspects (p<0.001). The overall HNN's perceived accuracy (M = 96.23%, SD = 1.45%) is comparable to the (training and inference) expensive BERT model's accuracy (M = 96.12%, SD = 1.52%). We also have observed that HNN is x2 more efficient in training and inferencing than BERT and has comparable efficiency to the lightweight but less accurate Naive Bayes model. Our study confirmed the accuracy and efficiency of using HNN to score students' science writing automatically.

Open-world classification systems should discern out-of-distribution (OOD) data whose labels deviate from those of in-distribution (ID) cases, motivating recent studies in OOD detection. Advanced works, despite their promising progress, may still fail in the open world, owing to the lack of knowledge about unseen OOD data in advance. Although one can access auxiliary OOD data (distinct from unseen ones) for model training, it remains to analyze how such auxiliary data will work in the open world. To this end, we delve into such a problem from a learning theory perspective, finding that the distribution discrepancy between the auxiliary and the unseen real OOD data is the key to affecting the open-world detection performance. Accordingly, we propose Distributional-Augmented OOD Learning (DAL), alleviating the OOD distribution discrepancy by crafting an OOD distribution set that contains all distributions in a Wasserstein ball centered on the auxiliary OOD distribution. We justify that the predictor trained over the worst OOD data in the ball can shrink the OOD distribution discrepancy, thus improving the open-world detection performance given only the auxiliary OOD data. We conduct extensive evaluations across representative OOD detection setups, demonstrating the superiority of our DAL over its advanced counterparts. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/DAL.

Smart contracts are prone to various vulnerabilities, leading to substantial financial losses over time. Current analysis tools mainly target vulnerabilities with fixed control or data-flow patterns, such as re-entrancy and integer overflow. However, a recent study on Web3 security bugs revealed that about 80% of these bugs cannot be audited by existing tools due to the lack of domain-specific property description and checking. Given recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs), it is worth exploring how Generative Pre-training Transformer (GPT) could aid in detecting logicc vulnerabilities. In this paper, we propose GPTScan, the first tool combining GPT with static analysis for smart contract logic vulnerability detection. Instead of relying solely on GPT to identify vulnerabilities, which can lead to high false positives and is limited by GPT's pre-trained knowledge, we utilize GPT as a versatile code understanding tool. By breaking down each logic vulnerability type into scenarios and properties, GPTScan matches candidate vulnerabilities with GPT. To enhance accuracy, GPTScan further instructs GPT to intelligently recognize key variables and statements, which are then validated by static confirmation. Evaluation on diverse datasets with around 400 contract projects and 3K Solidity files shows that GPTScan achieves high precision (over 90%) for token contracts and acceptable precision (57.14%) for large projects like Web3Bugs. It effectively detects ground-truth logic vulnerabilities with a recall of over 70%, including 9 new vulnerabilities missed by human auditors. GPTScan is fast and cost-effective, taking an average of 14.39 seconds and 0.01 USD to scan per thousand lines of Solidity code. Moreover, static confirmation helps GPTScan reduce two-thirds of false positives.

Computerised clinical coding approaches aim to automate the process of assigning a set of codes to medical records. While there is active research pushing the state of the art on clinical coding for hospitalized patients, the outpatient setting -- where doctors tend to non-hospitalised patients -- is overlooked. Although both settings can be formalised as a multi-label classification task, they present unique and distinct challenges, which raises the question of whether the success of inpatient clinical coding approaches translates to the outpatient setting. This paper is the first to investigate how well state-of-the-art deep learning-based clinical coding approaches work in the outpatient setting at hospital scale. To this end, we collect a large outpatient dataset comprising over 7 million notes documenting over half a million patients. We adapt four state-of-the-art clinical coding approaches to this setting and evaluate their potential to assist coders. We find evidence that clinical coding in outpatient settings can benefit from more innovations in popular inpatient coding benchmarks. A deeper analysis of the factors contributing to the success -- amount and form of data and choice of document representation -- reveals the presence of easy-to-solve examples, the coding of which can be completely automated with a low error rate.

Recent remarkable success in the deep-learning industries has unprecedentedly increased the need for reliable model deployment. For example, the model should alert the user if the produced model outputs might not be reliable. Previous studies have proposed various methods to solve the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection problem, however, they generally require a burden of resources. In this work, we propose a novel and simple method, Multiple Input Mixup (MIM). Our method can help improve the OOD detection performance with only single epoch fine-tuning. Our method does not require training the model from scratch and can be attached to the classifier simply. Despite its simplicity, our MIM shows competitive performance. Our method can be suitable for various environments because our method only utilizes the In-Distribution (ID) samples to generate the synthesized OOD data. With extensive experiments with CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 benchmarks that have been largely adopted in out-of-distribution detection fields, we have demonstrated our MIM shows comprehensively superior performance compared to the SOTA method. Especially, our method does not need additional computation on the feature vectors compared to the previous studies. All source codes are publicly available at https://github.com/ndb796/MultipleInputMixup.